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International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Extreme phenomena – Floods
in transboundary rivers
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Advisor
MENBO
Mediterranean Networl of Basin Organizations
Extreme phenomena – Floods
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
The annual cost to the world economy, of flooding and other water-related disasters, is between US$ 50 and US$ 60 billion The 2002 floods in Europe claimed 100 lives and caused US$ 20 billion in damage.
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
In Asia, between 1987 and 1997, floods claimed an average of 22,800 lives per annum and caused an estimated US$ 136 billion in economic damage
-Floods accounted for half of the total disasters, -water-borne and vector disease outbreaks accounted for 28% and -drought accounted for 11% of the total disasters.
It is estimated that one billion people, one sixth of the global population -the majority of them among the world's poorest inhabitants -live on flood plains today
..but
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Worldwide shared basins mean 48% of After land
ICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
Transboudnary river basins
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Worldwide shared basins mean 48% of After land
ICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
Transboudnary river basins
SEE Countries
Danube basin
Adraitic and Aegean basins
Main flooding areas
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Worldwide shared basins mean 48% of After land
ICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
Transboudnary river basins
Main flooding areas
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
XX Century
-206 a.c. Han Dinasty
Today
216 floods Every 10 years
>400.000 direct casualties
Indirect: related diseases, plagues, economic losses, poverty..
direct deaths 1931 – 145,000 1935 – 142,000 1954 – 30,000
Yangtse River
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Due to heavy storms or prolongated seasonal rains
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Lake
Sarez
Tadzhikistan
.. but also caused by
GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Amongst the 200 International
river basins worldwide, 55 are
situated in Africa, where 80% of
water resources are shared
10 By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso)
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Flood control dams as more
friendly alternatives
Even some dams supported
by green NGO’s
MODIFYING NATURE
How to fight against floods?
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
<80-90’s
Structural measures
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Past mistakes- lessons for the future
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Lesson learnt: Multipurpose projects. Sustainable
operation
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
0
1
Q
RISK REDUCTION DUE TO
FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS
F
EFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION (PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCE FUNCTION)
NATURAL REGIME
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
0
1
Q
RISK REDUCTION DUE TO
FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS
IMPOSED
F
EFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION (PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCE FUNCTION)
NATURAL REGIME
CATASTROPHIC FLOODS
REMAIN PROBABLE
BE AWARE OF INDUCED FALSE SAFETY
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
<80-90’s
Structural measures
90’s
Non structural measures Just management
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Will we be able to face requiered flood
mitigation challenges without phisical actions?
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
<80-90’s
Structural measures
90’s
Non structural measures Just management
Late 90’s and XXIst cent
Both plus proactive strategies
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Bco. la Saleta. 26/10/00
•Induced false safety
•Growth of vulnerability
The increasing pressure of urban and industrial development on metropolitan areas means a growth in the value of settled capital.
Investments on protection measures, structural or not, has to be based on a concept of sustainability, so that the creation of infrastructures do not generate an acceleration of the vulnerability of the territory. WOULD BE IT IS POSSIBLE?
Non structural measures::
Incentives to leave flood plains,
Land use management
Appropriate warning systems,
Emergency plans
Insurance policies, etc
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Amongst the 200 International
river basins worldwide, 55 are
situated in Africa, where 80% of
water resources are shared
21
GOVERNANCE?
By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso)
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
BORDER (no for water)
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Air temperature Precipitation amount,
timing and type
Runoff timing and
quantity
Sea level rise
Impacts of Climate Change on floods
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Are we able to assess really high return period floods?
Extrapolation con present statistics
Raingauge = RAFELCOFER.
T=10
T=50
T=100
T=500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL
SQRT GUMBEL GEV TCEV
Uncertainty!!
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Effects of climate change
Sensitivity analysis. Just modifying the temperature of sea water
it’s possible to estimate a new distribution function of probabilities
and new expected risks.
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Pre cip itac ió n m e dia
Pe
rio
do
de
re
torn
o
Dp Ref e renc ia
Dp +3º C
Climate change
1
10
100
1.000
10.000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Caudal punta (m3/seg)
Peri
od
o d
e r
eto
rno
(añ
os)
Dp Referencia
Dp +3ºC
Precipitation
of the storm
Peak flow of
the flood
Probability of catastrophic floods would be
considerabily increased
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Conclusions… may be just comments
Risk 0 never will be reached by
humankind
Negotiate with nature. Don’t forget
the fable of “Tang and the Tree”
River cannot be divided by
reaches. Floods cross borders
without visa
Regarding climate change,
remember “precaution principle”
Valencia, 1957
International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011
MENBO
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Thank you for your attention
Dr. Enrique Cifres Advisor Mediterranean Network of Basin Organizartions