Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)

Political feasibility assessment Political feasibility assessment frameworkframework

Eric Massey – IVM

Presented at the UN Climate Conference

Bali, Indonesia

December 7, 2007

2

What is political feasibility?

• Political feasibility is a term widely used which we have all heard.

• What does it mean though exactly?

• How can it be assessed, especially in the context of sectoral or technology oriented agreements?

3

What is political feasibility?

• Policy proposal being acceptable to all parties such that it can overcome enough resistance to move from the stage of an idea to agreement.

IdeaAgreement

Factors

Constraints

4

What is political feasibility?

IdeaAgreement

Factors

Constraints

If we can pinpoint the factors & constraints around a specific proposal we can understand if it might be politically feasible.

5

Influencing Factors

• Actors: Who are the parties involved, what are there motivations, what are their beliefs and what is their bargaining power?

• Resources: What resources materiel or otherwise are involved and can be exchanged or will be needed to reach an agreement?

• Time frame & Timing: What is the time frame for the proposal? Is the proposal being advocated at the right moment?

• Leverage points: Is there anything to make the proposal more attractive?

6

Constraints (1)

Economic• What are the economic

resources associated with the proposal?

• What financial obligations associated with accepting the proposal?

• Do the parties have those resources?

Physical & Technical• Are there any

physical/technical barriers?

• Does receiving party have adequate infrastructure?

• Does receiving party have enough technical resources for maintenance of proposal?

What kind of constraints will a TOA or SA What kind of constraints will a TOA or SA encounter and have to overcome?encounter and have to overcome?

7

Constraints (2)

Legal & Contractual• Is the institutional (legal

& regulatory) infrastructure there to accept proposal?

• Will laws need to be made or changed?

• Would the proposal require regulatory approval?

• Are there prior contractual agreements that could hinder the proposal?

Social & Equity• Could the proposal be

socially controversial?• Is it socially acceptable?• Will it be seen as

equitable or fair?• Are the parties being

offered enough?

8

Constraints (3)

Institutional & Governance

• Is the country politically and economically stable?

• Will corruption be an issue?

• Are there any other issues of governance that need to be addressed?

9

Political feasibility framework

ConstraintsConstraints Actor 1Actor 1 Actor 2Actor 2

Economic

Physical/technical

Legal/contractual

Social/equity

Institutional

Constraints Table

Factors list

1. Factor A

2. Factor B

10

Case 4: Car efficiency

Key issues:

•Car companies have resources but will have to make profound change & use of them

•Time frame appears adequate to implement agreement & timing is good

• Leverage points of first mover advantage to capture demand from customers (e.g. Toyota hybrid cars)

11

Thank You

Grazie

Merci

Dank U

Danke

Tack

Gracias Spasibo

Email: eric.massey@ivm.vu.nl