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Industry Sales Review Report March 2014
Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas)
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Data on product-wise monthly consumption of petroleum products for
March, 2014 is uploaded on PPAC website. This report analyses the trend of
consumption of petroleum products in the country during the month of
March, 2014.
1.0 CONSUMPTION:
The growth (%) in consumption of petroleum products, category-wise, for the
month of March, 2014 and April-March, 2014 is given in Table-1.
Table-1: Consumption (TMT)
1.1 All Products: The growth in consumption of all petroleum products has
registered a marginal growth of 0.8 % during March, 2014 as compared to that in
March, 2013 and cumulative growth for April-March, 2014 is at 0.7 %. This is the
lowest annual growth in consumption since 2001-02 when it was 0.4%. Except for
LPG, MS, LDO, ATF and Petcoke, all other products recorded negative growth.
Figure-1: Comparison of monthly POL Consumption and Growth (%) since April, 2011
The PMG (project monitoring group) in the Cabinet Secretariat had cleared 113
large projects with an investment of 3.7 lakh crores, which is a positive indication
for the growth in consumption of petroleum products during the FY 2014-15.
2.0%
7.4%
9.0% 10.4% 11.9%
5.2%
7.8%
2.2%
3.4%
10.3%
0.8%
3.6%
2.4%
3.0%
-1.5%
-1.4%
-0.4%
0.8% 1.7%
-0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
2.3%
0.8%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
10.00
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
Apr-12 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 Feb Mar
Consumption (MMT) 2011-12 Consumption (MMT) 2012-13 Monthly Growth (%)
PRODUCT
March, 2014 (P) April-March, 2014 (P)
Products Included Qty.
(TMT)
Growth
(%)
Qty.
(TMT)
Growth
(%)
Sensitive Products 8208 0.4 91869 -0.3 SKO, LPG & HSD
Major Decontrolled
Products 4479 -1.2 48495 -1.5
Naphtha, MS, Lubes, LDO,
FO/LSHS, Bitumen & ATF
Other Minor
Decontrolled Products 1512 10.1 17833 14.0
Petcoke & other minor
products
Grand Total 14199 0.8 158197 0.7
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Data on direct private imports received from DGCIS, which are added to the
final sales reported by oil companies for estimation of consumption figures, are
available up to January, 2014 and private imports data for the balance two
months, (i.e. February, 2014 & March, 2014) are projected based on
April-January, 2014 figures.
Detailed product-wise analysis of growth for March, 2014 is given in the following
sections:
1.2 Petrol / Motor Spirit (MS): There has been a 3.7% growth in the consumption
of MS during March, 2014 and cumulative growth for April-March, 2014 is at 8.8%.
Figure-2, gives month wise MS consumption volume (TMT) and month-on-month
growth (%) since April, 2011.
Figure-2: Month wise MS Consumption (TMT) and Growth (%)
The growth in consumption of MS in the month of March, 2014 is mainly
attributable to the lowering of inventories level with dealers in anticipation of
downward price revision by month end.
Other factors impacting consumption of MS are:
a) Total Passenger Vehicles (PV) Sales: The overall passenger vehicles sales fell
for the seventh straight month in March, 2014. The cut in excise duty and
discounts did not bring any cheers to the overall automobile industry and the
total passenger vehicles sales registered a decline of -7.30% during March,
2014, while the cumulative decline during April-March, 2014 was -6.05%.
Car sales wrapped up yet another year in FY 2013-14 of disappointment as
the slowing economy, higher interest rates and rising fuel prices have
escalated the cost of ownership, dissuading the potential buyers in making
new purchases.
3.7%
-4.4%
7.4%
8.3%
7.5%
2.5%
5.6%
13.9%
0.7%
11.8%
4.2%
1.4%
1.9%
31.2%
5.5% 7.1%
12.9%
0.4%
10.5%
10.2%
7.8%
6.4%
7.8%
3.7%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
Apr-12 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 Feb Mar
MS Consumption (TMT) 2011-12 MS Consumption (TMT) 2012-13 Monthly Growth (%)
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Segment March
Growth (%)
April-March
Growth (%)
Passenger Cars - 5.08 - 4.7
Utility Vehicles - 4.55 - 5.0
Vans - 31.77 - 19.6
Total Passenger Vehicles (PVs) - 7.30 - 6.05 Source: SIAM
Figure-3: Month-wise sales growth (%) of Indian Automobile Industry since July, 2012
b) 2-wheeler Sales: With domestic sales of 1.33 million units in March, 2014, the
2-wheeler segment recorded an impressive growth of 21.16%, mainly due to
a continuous very impressive growth of 42.63% in the Scooter/ Scooterette
segment.
Segment March Growth
(%)
April-March
Growth (%)
Scooter / Scooterette 42.6 23.2
Motor Cycles 16.2 3.9
Mopeds - 0.2 - 8.3
Total Two wheelers 21.2 7.3 Source: SIAM
More than 60% of the petrol consumption is by 2-wheelers in the country. The
spurt in the 2-wheeler sales in the recent past, also suggests that people are
opting for 2-wheeler over small car segment. This is driving the continuous growth
in MS sales. It is an observed trend that more women are opting for 2-wheelers,
which is resulting in a healthy growth in the Scooter/ Scooterette segment.
1.3 High Speed Diesel (HSD): The declining trend in HSD consumption since
June, 2013 continued in March, 2014 also, with the exception of a marginal
growth during November, 2013. HSD consumption recorded a negative growth
of -1.8% in the month of March, 2014 and a cumulative decline of -1.0% during
April-March, 2014. This is the first time since 2001-02, when the annual growth in
HSD consumption has declined.
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
Jul-12 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 Feb Mar
Commercial Cars 2-Wheelers
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A combination of factors such as (a) slowing down of sale of commercial diesel
vehicles (MPVs, Medium & Heavy vehicles and Light commercial vehicles), (b) improved
power situation, (c) un-seasonal rainfall, (d) shift of Industrial consumers to
alternate fuels due to price differential (dual pricing) and increasing fuel prices,
and (e) shift of 4-Wheeler/ SUV consumer preference from diesel to petrol driven
vehicles, continue to dampen diesel consumption
Figure-4: Month-wise HSD Consumption (TMT) and Growth (%) since April, 2011
Factors affecting diesel consumption are discussed below:
a) Port traffic: There has been a growth of 7.9% in port traffic and cargos
handled at major ports during March, 2014, with a positive growth of 1.78%
during the cumulative period April-March, 2014, mainly due to improvement
at Kolkatta, Haldia, Paradip, Cochin, New Mangalore and Ennore ports.
The port traffic movement is primarily affected due to slowdown in the mining
sector, especially in the domestic iron ore mining, as a result of curbs on
mineral rich states such as Goa, Karnataka and Odisha. However, recently
mining activities have partially resumed in Odisha and Karnataka.
The Supreme Court of India in April, 2014 has lifted the 19 month old ban on
mining in Goa, the top Iron ore producing state in the country. The
resumption of the mining activities will definitely improve the consumption of
petroleum products and cargo movement related activities in Goa during
FY 2014-15.
7.9%
8.9%
13.6% 13.3%
10.3%
7.4%
6.7%
1.6%
4.3%
7.9%
-2.1%
2.4%
4.1%
0.3%
-2.1%
-6.0%
-0.1% -0.6%
-1.3%
0.6%
-2.4% -2.8%
-0.1%
-1.8%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
8000.0
9000.0
Apr-12 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 Feb Mar
HSD Consumption (TMT) 2011-12 HSD Consumption (TMT) 2012-13 Monthly Growth (%)
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Table-2: Cumulative traffic handled at major ports for April-March, 2014 (in ‘000 Tonnes)
TRAFFIC HANDLED AT MAJOR PORTS
PORTS Mar’2014
(% Growth)
APRIL TO MARCH
2014 2013 Growth (%)
KOLKATA + HALDIA 11.5% 41385 39928 3.6%
PARADIP 20.1% 68003 56552 20.2%
VISAKHAPATNAM 12.6% 58503 59040 -0.9%
ENNORE 53.1% 27337 17885 52.8%
CHENNAI -0.6% 51105 53404 -4.3%
V.O. CHIDAMBARANAR 8.7% 28642 28260 1.4%
COCHIN 2.4% 20887 19845 5.3%
NEW MANGALORE 5.3% 39365 37036 6.3%
MORMUGAO 15.6% 11739 17693 -33.7%
MUMBAI 4.8% 59186 58038 2.0%
JNPT 4.0% 62346 64490 -3.3%
KANDLA -4.6% 87005 93619 -7.1%
TOTAL: 7.9% 555503 545790 1.78% Source: IPA
b) Power situation improves: All regions have shown improvement and the
power deficit position for the month of March, 2014 is given in Table-3.
Table-3: Power deficit: Region-wise position for March, 2014 (% deficit)
Region March 2014 March 2013
North -4.6 -7.5
West -1.1 -1.5
South -6.1 -18.2
East -1.0 -3.5
North-East -7.3 -8.7
All India -3.6 -8.6 Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA)
The improvement in power deficit is mainly due to increased power
availability and flat growth in power demand during the current fiscal. This
improved power position has led to reduced consumption of HSD for power
generation by DG sets.
c) Commercial Vehicles (CV) Sales: The CV sales registered a decline of
-24.55% during March, 2014 and a cumulative decline in sales of -20.23%
during the period April-March, 2014.
In the last 20 months, sales of heavy commercial vehicles have fallen
substantially forcing the major Indian manufactures such as Ashok-Leyland
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and Tata Motors for working at 30% to 40% level of their total production
capacity.
Segment March
Growth (%)
Apr-March
Growth (%)
M&HCVs - 20.80 - 25.3
LCVs - 26.55 - 17.6
TOTAL COMMERCIAL VEHICLES - 24.55 - 20.23 Source: SIAM
d) The IMD maps reflect the good un-seasonal rainfall during March, 2014
compared to the same period last year:
1.4 LPG: The LPG consumption for the seventh month in a row recorded a
positive growth 12.9% during March 2014 and the cumulative growth
consumption has been 4.7% during April-March, 2014.
Ceiling in number of subsidized cylinders and blocking of duplicate/ multiple
connections had brought down the consumption of subsidized domestic
cylinders since September, 2012. However, since September, 2014 there has
been growth in LPG consumption due to release of new connections and DBCs
and also due to low base of previous year. The announcement of increasing the
ceiling of subsidized cylinders from 9 to 12 in a year spurted the growth in
domestic LPG demand during March, 2014.
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Decline in bulk LPG sales has been observed since March, 2010, which may be
mainly due to shift of customers to PNG and parallel marketers, and also due to
slowdown in industrial activity.
Figure-5 Month-wise LPG consumption (TMT) and Growth (%) since April, 2012
1.5 Naphtha: Naphtha consumption recorded a de-growth of -3.4% in March,
2014 and a cumulative negative growth of -6.8%, during April-March, 2014.
There has been reduced consumption in the fertilizer sector (SPIC Tuticorin, Zuari
Goa, and FACT Ernakulam) and the power sector (Reliance Energy, Goa and
NTPC, Kayankulam), due to shift to Natural Gas by Zuari and reduced demand in
power sector, due to improved power generation from other sources. However,
some petrochemical units such as IOCL Panipat, Asian Peroxide and Haldia
Petrochemicals have recorded positive growth during March, 2014, while there is
negative growth in Reliance, Jamnagar.
1.6 Bitumen: Bitumen consumption registered a de-growth of -8.1% in March,
2014 and a cumulative growth of 5.6% was recorded during April-March, 2014.
The negative growth during the month is mainly due to subdued road activities
during the General Elections.
A number of new NHAI project clearances and activities of new road
construction and repairing of existing roads have contributed to the overall
growth in Bitumen consumption during the year 2013-14.
1.7 FO/LSHS: The declining trend in the negative growth of FO+LSHS
consumption in the current fiscal year continued with -2.4% growth during
March, 2014, and a cumulative negative growth of -19.1% for the period
April-March, 2014.
The Fertilizer and Power sectors have contributed to the negative growth in
FO/LSHS sales. NFL Panipat & Bhatinda and GNFC Bharuch, the major consumers
in the fertilizer sector, have switched to natural gas and their upliftment for the
past couple of months is nil.
6.8
8.6
6.2 6.0
4.8
-0.9
5.0
-3.3
-7.5
0.1
-4.2
0.8
0.0
-4.7 -5.8
3.1
-0.3
5.7
8.0
7.7
9.2
11.3
9.1
12.9
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
Apr-12 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 Feb Mar
LPG Consumption LPG Consumption Growth(%) Linear (LPG Consumption)
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1.8 ATF: ATF sales recorded a growth of 2.7% in March, 2014 and a cumulative
growth of 4.4% during April-March, 2014-14.
Figure-6: Month-wise ATF Consumption (TMT) & ATF Consumption Growth (%)
After almost two years, domestic air travel is showing signs of growth. In order to
boost air traffic in the coming months, most of the airlines have announced
slashing of air fares up to 75% for travel upto June, 2014.
1.9 Petcoke: Petcoke consumption registered a growth of 24.5% during March,
2014 and a cumulative growth of 15.0% during April-March, 2014.
The high growth during the last couple of years has been due to increased
availability after the commissioning of Resid project at the existing IOCL Gujarat
Refinery and new refineries at Bina and Bhatinda, and also due to increased
imports because large scale exports from USA.
Petcoke is used as fuel at power plants to generate electricity, by the smelting
industry to create aluminum and steel, and as a fuel for cement making.
1.10 LDO: LDO consumption recorded a growth of 27.8% in March, 2014 and a
cumulative negative growth of -3.1%, during April-March, 2014. However, the
volumes are very low.
1.11 Natural Gas: There has been a decline of about -8.68% in the consumption
of Natural Gas in March, 2014 and a cumulative negative growth of -8.05%
during April-March, 2014. The overall consumption for the month was
3,231.83 MMSCM, as compared to 3,539.06 MMSCM in March, 2013.
Natural gas consumption declined mainly due to reduced domestic gas
availability, primarily from the KG D-6 basin.
1. Power Sector: There was a decline of about -14.35% in natural gas
consumption to the power sector. This was primarily due to reduced
consumption by both public and private power producers in Northern,
Western and Southern region. Cumulative volume for the sector dropped
almost 32% compared to last year due to shortage of domestic gas and as
producing power from LNG was not viable due to high cost.
1.6%
3.5% 4.1%
4.3% 6.0%
7.3% 7.1%
3.5% 4.2%
5.3%
4.3%
2.7%
-1.6%
-3.0%
-4.7%
-6.3% -5.7%
-7.4%
-8.2%
-5.1% -5.7% -4.4%
-6.8%
1.1%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
Apr-12 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Gr (%) 2013-14 Gr (%) 2012-13
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Figure-7: Monthly Natural Gas Consumption (MMSCM):
2. Fertilizer Sector: There was a negative growth of -13.16% in natural gas
consumption due to reduced off-take by consumers in Northern (Shutdown in
Indo-Gulf, IFFCO, CFCL), Southern (NFCL) and Southern India (NFCL)
compared to the same period last year. However, there has been increased
off-take by producers in Goa and Madhya Pradesh in Western India. Fertilizer
sector showed a cumulative growth of 5.41% in 2013-14 compared to last
year primarily due to fresh supplies to NFL plants in Punjab through newly laid
Dadri-Nangal pipeline and increased supply to Zuari Fertilizers in Goa.
3. City Gas Sector: There was growth of 17.30% in CGD consumption due to
increase in off-take primarily in Northern region (IGL and Green Gas),
Southern region (BGL) and Western region (in Gujarat due to increased APM
allocation). During 2013-14, the sector showed a marginal growth of 0.79%
due to increased consumption in Maharashtra, UP and Delhi.
4. Internal Consumption: There is a negative growth in the Internal Consumption
(IC) by -20.35% compared to the same period last year. The de-growth was
primarily due to GAIL Pata shutdown in Northern India, reduced GAIL IC in
Madhya Pradesh & Gujarat in Western Region and increased internal
consumption by RIL in Southern region. Cumulative Internal Consumption for
2013-14 showed a negative growth of 5.05% compared to last year.
5. Others Sectors: There was overall decrease of about -7.50% in consumption in
Other Sectors. The decline in sales is due to decrease in domestic supply and
low LNG off-take by customers in Northern Region (low off take by GAIL &
IOCL customers), Western Region (Low off-take in Gujarat) and Southern
Region (Zero RIL sales in other sectors since June, 2013). Cumulative volume
for the sector showed a negative growth of 15.56% in 2013-14 compared to
last year.
* * * * * *
3930
4129
3923
3969
3946
3716
3892
3574
3720
3662
3134
3539
3510
3459
3251
3374
3327
3347
3340
3350
3563
3356
3034
3232
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Apr-12 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Mar Apr-13 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-14 Feb Mar
Monthwise NG Sales (MMSCM)