Post on 25-Dec-2015
Increasing awareness of global catastrophic risks, while searching for the governance that can decrease them.
The risk of climate changeA comparative perspective
Dennis Pamlin, Senior Advisor
2015-04-13
Responding proportionately to the risk Focus, Responsibility, Capacity to turn it into opportunities
2
Most probable – 1/200 Economic
Unacceptable
Risk of ruin
33%
?
The Global Challenges Foundation12 different risks that threaten human civilisation
2
LA-602: Ignition of the Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs
The Global Challenges FoundationVery different levels of uncertainty – different focus to address them
2
Action
Research
Already in the risk zone
Responding proportionately to the risk Significant uncertainty – but potentially catastrophically consequences
2
2-4°C
4-7°C0.1°C 7+°C
Type 1 errorsType 2 errors
Emissions (human)Climate sensitivityClimate effectsClimate resilience
Responding proportionately to the risk The probabilities of global risks are not isolated from each other
2
The Global Challenges FoundationHow do we communicate about the probability different risks?
2
20%IPCC = UnlikelyTraditional risk approach = Very high
1%IPCC = Exceptionally unlikelyTraditional risk approach = Average
<0.002%Traditional risk approach = Very Low
The Global Challenges FoundationFour ideas to consider from a comparative global risks perspective
2
1. ResearchEncourage all research related to climate change to present the whole probability distribution and include a discussion about the tail-risk. => Do not stop research regarding impacts at 4°C and discuss earth system feedback.
2. Business/finance (and policy making)Develop strategies that allow the goal of global zero carbon society by 2050 become a main driver of innovation supported by accelerated uptake of strategies that include the financial risk of investments in high-carbon capital.
3. Policy makingEstablish a G20 global risk group with focus on low-probability/high impact aspects. 2, 4, 7+ °C
For climate: Explore the consequences of two goals for and climate change.
i. 2 degree goal (dangerous risk) with 80% or 99% probability => Main focus on the direct effect of anthropic emissions
ii. A 6 degree goal (deadly risk) with 99.98% or 99.9998% probability => Focus on earth system feedback and surprises
4. AllEstablish revised probability language to describe the probability of different degrees of warming and associated consequences.