a perspective for human development in the 21st century

Inaugural lecture, Rutger de Graaf, Tuesday 6th November 2012

– Introduction

• Before we start

• A family moment

• Thinking about the future

– Problem overview

– Adaptive urban development on water

• Key characteristics

• Research agenda

– Implementation

– Conclusion

Contents| Lecture outline

Introduction| RDM in the 1960’s

Introduction| A family moment

Introduction| A family moment

PROBLEM

OVERVIEW

“You could not step twice into the same river; for other waters are ever flowing on to you.” - Heraclitus

NASA

Global city light image

Earthzine, 2010

Manila, Philippines

Natural weather catastrophes

Munich Re

Photo: Charles Sykes, AP

Sandy, New York City

Population exposed to flooding in 2007 and 2070

Source: OECD, 2007

Source: Piet Dircke, 2012

Effects of land subsidence, Jakarta, Indonesia

Land shortage | Business as usual

Land shortage

≈ 22 mn km²

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

Land shortage | Business as usual

Land shortage | Best case scenario

Land shortage:

≈ 12 mn km²

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Barnard's_Galaxy.jpg

http://www.mega-tapety.info/krajobrazy-polaipustynie-1414.html

Desert? : water resources are lacking

Space?? : still too expensive

Where to go?

http://www.philipp-winterberg.com/galerie/mexico_wallpaper.php

The Ocean !

ADAPTIVE

URBAN

DEVELOPMENT

ON WATER “We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea, whether it is to sail or to watch - we are going back from whence we came.” - John F. Kennedy

Floating Cities| l’Ile a Helice (Jules Vernes, 1895)

Floating Cities| Triton City (Richard Buckminster Fuller, 1966)

Walt Disney, 1984

Floating Cities| Sea City of the Future (Walt Disney, 1984)

Floating Cities| GREEN FLOAT (Shimizu Corporation, 2010)

On water 50 times more efficient

Less than 0,2 % of the oceans

needed

One third of the current

agricultural area

will become available

Enough space

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

DeltaSync, 2012

Conventional city Conventional + Floating city

‘Linear metabolism’ ‘Cyclical metabolism’

Concept | Closing the cycle

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

Concept | Closing the cycle

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

Concept | Case study

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

Concept | Producing food and fuel from algae

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

44% of the world food demand can be met by using the

available (waste) nutrients and CO2 from current cities

A total floating area of the size of Madagascar (585.000

km2) would be enough .

In the optimal ratio, 13% of the population would live in

the floating cities.

Global potential

Source: DeltaSync, 2012

DeltaSync, 2012

Building blocks| Floating platforms

Building blocks| Floating buildings

Building blocks| Floating biofuel production

Building blocks| Floating food production

Source: Aquaponics.blog

Source: Nederland in Beeld

Building blocks| Wave protection

Source: FDN Engineering

Building blocks| Wave protection

Building blocks| Artificial reefs

Source: Reefballs.org

Building blocks| Floating wetlands

Source: Floating Islands International

Source: DeltaSync, 2008

Building blocks| Utility units and infrastructure

Project Knowledge Gaps

Floating structures and utilities Integrating technologies and up scaling from

house to neighbourhood and city level.

Integrating floating aquaculture innovations in

floating structures.

Urban design of floating cities Urban design instruments specifically

accustomed to floating cities, including public

space, separation, identities, mobility and

possible ways of living in floating cities

Realizing floating urbanization Development of new economic models, new

methods of collaboration between research,

government, companies and SME’s, starting

pilot projects

Impacts on water quality and

ecology

Data and understanding about water quality

and ecological impacts, establishing design

guidelines based on this understanding.

Rotterdam as entrepreneurial

water en adaptation showcase

Role of showcases in the development and

transition process of water cities

RESEARCH AGENDA

IMPLEMENTATION

If at first an idea isn't absurd, there's no hope for it.”

-Albert Einstein-

Implementation| From vision to mission

DeltaSync, 2006

DeltaSync and Public Domain Architecten, 2009

Implementation| Defining a short term step

Implementation| Building Process

Implementation| The Result

1. Political importance

2. Collaboration

3. Window of opportunity: WE Shanghai 2010

4. Time pressure

5. Process approach vs blue print

6. Network of change agents

7. Ambition

8. Temporary functions

Implementation| Succes factors

Implementation| Citizens as project developers

Floating Houses Harnaschpolder Implementation| Building process

Implementation| Ambitions for Rotterdam

Source: Municipality of Rotterdam

Implementation| Municipal policy

Source: Gemeente Rotterdam

Implementation| Developing the building blocks

Stichting Rijnhavenpark, Stad op het Water & DeltaSync, 2011/2012

Stichting Rijnhavenpark, Stad op het Water & DeltaSync, 2011/2012

Source: RDM Campus, 2010

Source:RDM Campus, 2010

A fundamental new approach to urban development is needed for the challenges of the 21st century

Cities on land should be transformed into flood proof ecocities

Floating city expansions combined with food production can accommodate future urbanization without sacrificing land

At the same time this strategy provides global food security and reuses waste of conventional cities

Much research is still needed but, at the same time, also fast implementation

Conclusions

“Because the people who are crazy enough to think they

can change the world, are the ones who do.”

- Steve Jobs