Post on 27-Jul-2020
Impact of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial
Lakes
APN International Symposium 2 December 2007
Kobe, Japan
Presented By:Basanta Shrestha, Division Head MENRIS, ICIMOD
(bshrestha@icimod.org)
Other study team members: Samjwal Bajracharya, Pradeep Mool, and members from national partner institutions
Extends over 3500 km from Afghanistan to Myanmar And Home to 150 million People
The Hindu Kush-Himalayan RegionA regional mountain knowledge and learning centre devoted to sustainable mountain development in the greater Himalayan region.
www.icimod.orghttp://menris.icimod.net
Mt. Everest
N
N
The Himalayas has the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar region, aptly called “The Third Pole”.
1.3 billion people depend on
‘the water tower’
9 Large River Basins
Impact of climate change is well observed in the Himalayan
The warming in the Himalayas in last three decades has been between 0.15 °C - 0.6 °C per decade
Several studies show that most of glaciers in Himalaya are shrinking at accelerated rates in recent decades
- Melting Glaciers, - Growing Glacial lakes, and- Glacial lakes Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
PakistanPakistan
IndiaIndia
NepalNepal
HPHP
UAUA
ChinaChina
AfghanistanAfghanistan
SKSKBhutanBhutan
Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and GLOF in the HimalayaInventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and GLOF in the Himalaya
INDUSINDUS
Glaciers and Glacial lakes of Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan
and selected basins of India and TAR/China
http://www.icimod-gis.net/gis/naturalhazard.phphttp://dev.icimod.org/elibrary/index.php/search/publication/169
http://www.rrcap.unep.org/issues/glof/glof/index.htm
Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and GLOF in the Himalaya
Melting of Glaciers in HimalayaSome examples
Poiqu Basin
Nepal
China
Glaciers and glacial lakes in Poiqu Basin (Source: Mool et.al. 2004)
Gangxi Co lake at the tongue of Glacier 50191C0009 in 1987
Lumu Chimi lake at the tongue of Glacier 50191B0029 in 1987
Melting of Glaciers in China Himalaya
153 glaciers 244 km2 in 1988 232 km2 in 2000 5% loss in 12yrs.
1000M
EOS ASTER image on 5 Dec, 2003
1000M
Landsat ETM+ image on 22 Nov, 2000
1000M
Landsat TM image on 18 Oct, 1996
1000M
Landsat TM image on 21 Dec, 1990
1000M
Landsat MSS image on 9 April, 1984
1000M
Landsat MSS image on 1 Jan, 1977
Glacier retreat and growth of lakes in Poiqu Basin, Tibet Autonomous Region of Peoples’ Republic of China
Gangxi Co Lake
Glacier on 5 Dec, 2003Glacier on 5 Dec, 2003Glacial Lake on 1 Jan 1977Glacial Lake on 1 Jan 1977Glacial Lake on 9 April, 1984Glacial Lake on 9 April, 1984Glacial Lake on 21 Dec, 1990Glacial Lake on 21 Dec, 1990Glacial Lake on 18 Oct, 1996Glacial Lake on 18 Oct, 1996Glacial Lake on 22 Nov, 2000Glacial Lake on 22 Nov, 2000Glacial Lake on 5 Dec, 2003Glacial Lake on 5 Dec, 2003
1 0 1 2Km
Glacier 5O191B0029
Glacier 5O191C0009
Lumu Chimi Lake
68m/yr
45m/yr
Melting of Glaciers in China Himalaya
Siachen glacier - 31.5 m/yearBara Shigri - 29.78 m/year Pindari glaciers - 23.5 m/year Gangotri glacier - 18 m/yearDokriani glacier - 16.5 m/yearMilam glacier - 9.1 m/year Chhota Shigri - 6.81 m/year
Gara, Gor Garang, Shaune Garang, Nagpo Tokpo Glaciers - 4.22 - 6.8 m/year
Glacier retreat 1963- 1997Janapa Glacier, Jorya Garang - 425 m Naradu Garang - 550 m Bilare Bange - 90 mKaru Garang - 800 m Baspa Bamak - 380 m Parbati glacier - 6.8 km Retreat of the Gangotri Glacier snout during
the last 220 years (Source: Jeff Kargel, USGS)
Melting of Glaciers in India Himalaya
(Source: various literatures)
1993, SPOT
• Raphstreng glacier retreated 42m/yr from 1968 to 2001
• Luggye glacier retreated 57m/yr from 1988 to 1998
Melting of Glaciers in Bhutan Himalaya
Glaciers shrunk by around 8% between 1963 to 1993.
Lake Chubda Tsho increased by 0.027 km2/yr from 1968 to 2001.
Lower part of Chubda Tsho view from right lateral �moraine (Photo: Deo Raj Gurung, 2004)
Development of Chubda Tsho glacial lake from 1968 to 2004 (Source: Bhutan Geology 2005 Newsletter S. No. 8) Satellite image showing Chubda Tsho (Source: Google Earth)
Melting of Glaciers in Nepal Himalaya
Most glaciers shrunk by around 10 to 60 m/yr
About 6% area loss in the period 1970 to 2000
WECS 1993, Mool2001, Bajracharya 2005,
66m per year from1957-2000 (Tso Rolpa glacial lake associated with) Trakarding glacier
Bajracharya 2006Retreat rate about 41m/yr from 1962-2001 and 74m from 2001 to 2006
(Imja glacial lake associated with) Imja and Lhotse Sar glaciers
Yamada et al. 199230-60 m retreat from 1970s to 19897 unnamed clean type glaciers in
Khumbu region
Kadota et al. 200010m surface lowering from1978-1995KhumbuFujita 200130 m retreat form 1978-1989AX010ReferenceRetreat rateGlacier Name
Successive development of the Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake from 1957 to 2000 Retreat of Trakarding Glacier & Growth of Tsho Rolpa Lake
Development of Tsho Rolpa lake with the retreat of Trakarding glacier
Retreating Imja glacier and growing glacial LakeRetreating Retreating ImjaImja glacier and glacier and growing glacial Lakeglacial Lake
IRS LISS3 2005IRS LISS3 2005QuickbirdQuickbird Jan 2006Jan 2006ENVISAT, ASAR, 18 October 2007ENVISAT, ASAR, 18 October 2007
LANDSAT TM 1992LANDSAT TM 1992CORONA 15 DEC 1962CORONA 15 DEC 1962 IRS ID PAN 19 MAR 2001IRS ID PAN 19 MAR 2001SPACE SHUTTLE DEC 1983SPACE SHUTTLE DEC 1983
LEGENDS
15 Dec 196215 Oct 197502 Dec 198322 Sep 199230 Oct 2000
Jan 2006
Highest retreating glacier in Himalaya
A marked retreat of this glacier has been observed since 1990 accompanied by rapid growth of Imja Lake.
• Almost 1 square kilometers in area
• 28 million cubic meters in 1992
• 36 million cubic meters in 2002
• 40 million cubic meters in 2007
• Retreat rate – 42m/yr from 1962 to 2001 and 74m/yr from 2001 to 2006
2006 photograph of Imja glacier(Photo: Giovanni Kappenberger
courtesy of Alton C Byers)
1956 photograph of Imjaglacier (Photo: Fritz Muller;
courtesy of Jack Ives)
Imja Glacier – Repeat Photography
Glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal
Glacial lakes - 2323
Koshi Basin
Mahakali Basin
Karnali Basin
Gandaki Basin
Potentially dangerous glacial lakes
C H I N A
N E P A L
Longda
ZhangzangboTaraco Ayaco
GelhaipucoJinco
I N D I A
Location of some of the past GLOF events effecting in Nepal,Location of some of the past GLOF events effecting in Nepal,often have Transoften have Trans--boundary implicationsboundary implications
Potentially dangerous lakes in the HimalayaPotentially dangerous lakes in the Himalaya
Nepal
Pakistan
China
India
Bhutan
UA
HP
SK
Glacial lakes Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
• Glacial lakes are formed by accumulation of water from the melting of snow and ice cover and by blockage of end moraines
• Sudden break of a moraine may generate the discharge of large volumes of water and debris causing floods (GLOFs)
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Hazards in Nepal Himalaya
Landsat image of 2000
Chhubung
GLOF 1991
Tsho Rolpa Lake
● Bedding Village
● Naa Village
ChhubungChhubung GLOF in 1991GLOF in 1991
Boulders deposited on the football ground of Bedding Village 10km downstream from Chhubung GLOF
Breaching of moraine dam and fan deposited from Chhubung GLOF
Namche Small Hydel Project at Thame Village destroyed due to Dig Tsho GLOF on 4 August 1985
Dig Tsho GLOF in 4 August 1985
Breaching of Lake Dig Tshoand debris in the valley (Photo in 1991,WECS)
Part of Lunana complex showing Luggye Glacier (A), Luggye Tsho(B), Thorthormi Glacier (C) and Supraglacial lake (D). The breach point of Luggye Tsho GLOF is shown by arrow. (Photo: PhuntshoNorbu 1994)
A
B
C
D
Breach point
Luggye Tsho from 1956 to 2001
(Modified after Report of Japan –Bhutan Joint Research 1998) (Luggye Tsho partially breached out on 7 Oct 1994)
Nov. 2001(Landsat)
B
3D perspective view of Pho Chu basin showing Luggye Glacier (A), Luggye Tsho (B), Thorthormi Glacier (C), Supraglacial lake (D), Raphstreng Tsho (E), Tenchey village (F) and GLOF debris (G) along the valley (19 December 1999 IRS1D LISS3 and PAN data)
DC
B
A
E
F
G
Breach point
B
Luggye Tsho GLOF 1994 Oct. 7
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Hazards in Bhutan Himalaya
The U-shaped valley looking downstream showing the sand deposit in the Tshoju Village and erosion near Dota and Tenchey Villages by the GLOF of 1994. (Photo: Yeshi Dorji 1994)
TshojuDota
TencheyF
G
Impact of 1994 GLOF event from Luggye Tsho in Bhutan
Excav
ated ar
ea
Manual excavation to lower the water level of Raphstreng Tsho in Bhutan
Regular Monitoring, Early Warning and Mitigation Measures
Simulation of GLOFSimulation of GLOFVulnerability and risk assessmentVulnerability and risk assessment(Near) Real time monitoring(Near) Real time monitoringNetworking of field sensor and Networking of field sensor and transmission stationtransmission stationWireless Sensor NetworkWireless Sensor Network
70m long and 4.2 wide out let canal of 70m long and 4.2 wide out let canal of TshoTsho RolpaRolpa lake lake and 3 m wide opening gated structureand 3 m wide opening gated structure
Early warning SystemEarly warning SystemTshoTsho RolpaRolpa glacial lakeglacial lake
Outflow from the outlet canal at end moraineOutflow from the outlet canal at end moraine
Mitigation and Early Warning System at the Mitigation and Early Warning System at the TshoTsho RolpaRolpa Glacial Lake in NepalGlacial Lake in Nepal
Tsho Rolpa Lake in Nepal Himalaya
ICIMOD, Oct 2000
Early Warning Systems and Risk Mitigation workEarly Warning Systems and Risk Mitigation workEarly Warning System
(Arun Shrestha ,2000)
Channel Construction
Monitoring of Imja glacier and lake in the Mount Everest region, Nepal Himalaya – A case example
Hydrodynamic modeling
• Topographic Information (DEM)
• Extraction of geometric and Hydraulic Information (HEC GeoRAS)
Assessment of GLOF hazardAssessment of GLOF hazard
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
Bathymetry of Imja
Assessment of GLOF hazardAssessment of GLOF hazard
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
LEGENDS
15 Dec 196215 Oct 197502 Dec 198322 Sep 199230 Oct 2000
Jan 2006
Imja Glacier Retreat and Growing Lake Almost 1 square kilometers in area
**********
28 million cubic meters
in 1992
36 million cubic meters
in 2002
***********
One of the highest retreat rate found in the
Himalaya
Retreat rate – increased about 42m/yr from 1962 to 2001 and 74m/yr from 2001 to 2006
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
19932005
1996
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
Monitoring using RADAR satellite imageryMonitoring using RADAR satellite imagery
200509.03.2007
26.05.2007
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
Monitoring using RADAR satellite imageryMonitoring using RADAR satellite imagery
Combined with Field-based measurements:• Wireless sensor network• Geo-physical and environmental sensors• Field server and Internet connectivity• Real-time monitoring and early warning
Combined with Field-based measurements:• Wireless sensor network• Geo-physical and environmental sensors• Field server and Internet connectivity• Real-time monitoring and early warning
GLOF hydrograph of ImjaPeak flow and peak flood depth along the rivers
5.75235546.434.559 Ghat
6.64244738.829.669 Bengkar
6.91322334.825.940 Larja Dovan
7.62480021.313.648Pangboche
5.53493218.811.545 Orso
5.81509413.97.518 Dingboche
54610.00.0Lake outlet
Flood Depth (m)
Discharge (m3s-1)
Time(min)Ch (km)Place
Flood arrival time and discharge from Imja GLOFSimulation of GLOF scenariofrom Imja
If Imja breaks…If Imja breaks…
Assessment of GLOF hazardAssessment of GLOF hazard
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
If Imja Breaks…If Imja Breaks…
Simulation of GLOF scenario from ImjaSimulation of GLOF scenario from Imja
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
If Imja breaks…If Imja breaks…
GLOF Vulnerability at Dingboche
Dingboche(Photo: 2006)
• Pangboche• Dingboche
• Namche bazaar
• Chhukung Ri
• Kalapathar
• Quangde
• Tengboche
• Loboche (Pyramid)
• Phortse
• Everest base camp
• Imja lake
• Khumbu Glacier
• Everest
25 Km
Networking of field sensor and transmission station in Mt. EvereNetworking of field sensor and transmission station in Mt. Everest st region for the real time monitoring of Lake region for the real time monitoring of Lake ImjaImja TshoTsho
Monitoring of Glacier and Lake and GLOF in the HimalayaMonitoring of Glacier and Lake and GLOF in the Himalaya
Wi-Fi Mesh-network
Web ServerMeasurementDevice Control
Sensors (up to 24ch)Air temp.HumiditySolar Radiation, UVCO2 concentration・・・・
tolerate the cold weather
Camera (0.3-8M Pixels)Solar-cellLED Lighting
http://fsds.dc.affrc.go.jp/data4/Himalayan/
ImjaImja Lake and its network statistics of local bandwidth Lake and its network statistics of local bandwidth ((ImjaImja to to NamcheNamche))
Melting Glaciers in the HimalayaMelting Glaciers in the Himalaya
Time to act now !!!Time to act now !!!
Action 1:
Update Inventory of Glaciers,Glacial Lakes and GLOFs
Establish standardized regional and national databases
Action 1:
Update Inventory of Glaciers,Glacial Lakes and GLOFs
Establish standardized regional and national databases
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
Action 2:
Prioritize Potential Dangerous Lakes andEstablish Regular Monitoring System
For Early Warning System
Field-based and Remote Sensing Techniques
Involve Community Participation
Action 2:
Prioritize Potential Dangerous Lakes andEstablish Regular Monitoring System
For Early Warning System
Field-based and Remote Sensing Techniques
Involve Community Participation
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
Action 3:
Conduct Vulnerability and Impact Assessment
Adaptation and Mitigation Measuresthrough pilot demonstration
Action 3:
Conduct Vulnerability and Impact Assessment
Adaptation and Mitigation Measuresthrough pilot demonstration
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
Action 4:
Bridge information and knowledge gapto enhance scientific understanding
Downscaling and customizeinternational knowledge
Action 4:
Bridge information and knowledge gapto enhance scientific understanding
Downscaling and customizeinternational knowledge
Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:Melting Glaciers in the Himalayas:
More Info:More Info:
Mountain Mountain GeoPortalGeoPortal
http://menris.icimod.nethttp://menris.icimod.net
Melting Glaciers in the HimalayaMelting Glaciers in the Himalaya
Thank you for your attention !!!Thank you for your attention !!!