Elements of a Cis-lunar Economy ESIL-8 Workshop

Jonathan Goff | Founder & CEO | jongoff@altius-space.com | 1 Apr 2016

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Image Credit: ESA

Overview

• Electrical Analogy of Cis-lunar Commerce

• Transportation/Logistics Elements

• Resources

• Potential Markets 2

Electrical Analogy of Commerce (1/2)

• I = flow of commerce

• R = how hard it is to transport goods

• V= value of goods transported 3

Electrical Analogy of Commerce (2/2)

• When transportation networks are immature, only the highest value goods get transported

• As the transportation networks mature, commerce increases and diversifies, and subeconomic resources become economically viable

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Current Round Trip Ticket Cost

• Apollo 11 Mission Marginal Cost: • $355M (1969 USD) • $2.4B (2016 USD) • $1-1.2B/person (depending on

how you count Michael Collins)

• CxP Per Lunar Mission Marginal Cost: $3B ?? • $500M/person?

• Space Adventures Lunar Flyby: $200M/person • And they claim they’ve got two

paying customers already

• Golden Spike Target Price: $750M/person

5 What would it take to get down to $20M/ticket?

$10M/ticket? $1M/ticket?

TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS ELEMENTS: LOWERING THE RESISTANCE TO CIS-LUNAR COMMERCE

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Earth-to-Orbit Launch Vehicle Reuse

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Knowing How Much G Humans Need?

http://selenianboondocks.com/category/variable-gravity/

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Depots/Distributed Launch

9 http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Extended_Duration/PropellantDepots2009.pdf http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Extended_Duration/Distributed-Launch-2015.pdf

Atmospheric Gathering

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Aerobraking/Aerocapture

11 https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/Kirtley_2012_PhI_PlasmaAerocapture.pdf

Real Spaceships

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In-Situ Resource Utilization

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Human/Robotic Teams

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Propellantless Lunar Launch/Landing

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RESOURCES

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Lunar Resources

• Water/Propellant

• Other Volatiles

• Precious Metals

• Engineering Metals

• Bulk Material

• Light/Power

• Radio Shadow

• Vacuum

• Tourism/Settlement 17

CIS-LUNAR MARKETS: “IT’S TOUGH TO MAKE PREDICTIONS—ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE” (YOGI BERRA) “I SKATE TO WHERE THE PUCK IS GOING, NOT WHERE IT HAS BEEN.” (WAYNE GRETZKY)

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Satellite Manufacturing

• Most space revenue comes from sending and receiving photons • Communications/Internet • Earth Observation/Weather • Navigation

• Large space structures are one of the most valuable things today that could be made in space. • Rural cell-tour replacement constellation • High bandwidth global internet • Huge space/earth observation telescopes

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Space Solar Power?

• Will be hard to compete with advanced fission or fusion

• May be useful for beamed power to aircraft? Or LEO commsats? Or Atmospheric gatherers? • Collocate with rural cell-tower replacement constellation?

• Transoceanic flight powering while satellites are over water?

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Propellant

• Potential customers • Human and robotic

space exploration

• Sending spacecraft from LEO to BLEO destinations (eg MEO, GEO, EML1/2, Lunar Surface, Asteroids, etc)

• Lunar/Martian settlers

• Spacecraft Stationkeeping

• Deorbit services

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• Very important to differentiate between propellant costs and propellant value

Settlement/Tourism

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Cyclers

• For Lunar, Martian, and Venusian settlers, cyclers can dramatically lower the mass/person that has to be launched each time.

• Radiation shielding and good hab space are heavy, but relatively unsophisticated

• Could be a market for in-space manufacturing

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Questions?

Contact Info jongoff@gmail.com

801-362-2310

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