Post on 13-Jul-2015
11/22/2014
1
From Risk to Resilience:State of Practice in the USA
Igor Linkov, PhD
Risk and Decision Science Focus Area Lead, USACE, ilinkov@yahoo.com
Adjunct Professor, Carnegie Mellon University
Visiting Professor Ca Foscari
Known, quantifiablethreats
Unknown Uncharacterized
Risk
Visiting Professor, Ca FoscariUniversity of Venice, Italy
Co-Authors:
Cate Fox-Lent, USACE
Steve Flynn, Northeastern University
Low-probability Events
Resilience
Global RisksWorld Econ. Forum2014
EmergingGlobalRisks
2
11/22/2014
2
Risk and Resilience: Political Importance and Challenge
Executive Order: "resilience" means the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions.
Top-DownResilience/ Decision &Network
Analysis
Bottom-UpRisk Assessment
Goal Identification and Problem Framing Management
Risk-Resilience Integration
-
What are the goals, alternatives, and
constraints?
Decision Model-
What are the criteria and metrics, How do we measure
decision-maker valuesPhysical/Statistical Model
-
What is the hazard?What is exposure?
Risk Characterization-
What are the risks relative to a threshold? How do they compare
to other alternatives?
Modeling
g
Metrics Generation and Alternative Scoring
-
How does each alternative score along our identified
criteria and metrics?
Data Collection-
What are fundamental properties/mechanisms
associated with each alternative?
Data Collection
Linkov et al., 2014
11/22/2014
3
Outline From Risk to Resilience (US Army Corps Case)
► Risk• Conceptualization
• Risk Assessment Case Studies
• Problems with Risk based Approaches• Problems with Risk-based Approaches
► Resilience • Conceptualization
• Resilience Matrix Approach and Jamaica Bay Case
• Network Science Approach
State of Practice in the US• Army (Installations and Energy)• Army (Installations and Energy)
• DoD (Cyber)
• Department of Interior (Environment and Infrastructure)
• EPA (Environment)
• DHS (infrastructure)
• NIST (framework and Community)
Discussion – UK vs US Approach
Risk Assessment Formulation
11/22/2014
5
Risk Assessment is one part of Resilience
RiskAnalysisRi k
Plan Adapt
Critical Functionality
System Resilien
ce
Analysis
Consequence
Risk
Time
After Linkov et al, Nature Climate Change 2014
Importance of Recovery
he
Low HighRisk
Lo
wH
igh
Res
ilien
ce
a b
c d
After Linkov et al, Nature Climate Change 2014
Traditional risk management focuses on planning and reducing vulnerabilities. Resilience management puts additional emphasis on speeding recovery and facilitating adaptation.
11/22/2014
6
UK US
Organization Top-down integrated approach
Parallel but independent agency efforts
Scope Detailed national risk Community-level risk and
Country Comparison
assessmenty
recovery assessment; agency performance monitoring
Threats Off-shore natural disasters, cyber attack, international terrorism
Flooding, domestic natural disasters, cyber attack
Tools Planning toolkits for communities and businesses
Planning toolkits for communities and assessment frameworks for localframeworks for local governments
Focus Critical Infrastructurevulnerability and cascading consequences
Critical Infrastructure and capacity to maintain
Process-based, descriptive Metrics, more prescriptive
DHS Disaster Resilience Index
Metrics in categories of : social,
Demographic data as indicators of scale of vulnerability and resilience/ ability to recover quickly.
economic, institutional, infrastructure, and community.
All categories equally weighted.
Regional assessment, county level resolution.
Spatially reported results,Spatially reported results, comparative.
All hazards assessment
11/22/2014
7
FEMA Disaster Resilience Index
Strength of social systems
Relative importance of community
Community member awareness and vulnerability survey
Potential hazard severity identification
Relative importance of community structures
Rate general mitigation measures on level of effectiveness or feasibility to improve each community component
Guidance on developing specific Guidance on developing specific mitigation actions.
Supplements: specific hazard probability, functional loss, and cost calculator; local all-hazards risk assessment http://www.dhses.ny.gov/oem/mitigation/documents/fema-local-
mitigation-handbook.pdf
NOAA Community Resilience Index
Identify past and expected storm strength for benchmark scenarios.
Checklist of likely losses to criticalChecklist of likely losses to critical infrastructure and facilities under each scenario.
Expected level of recover in 1 week.
Business recovery,
Strength of social systems
E i ti l d t Existing plans and agreements
Rank resilience in each category as High, Medium, Low.
No relative weights
Local Government Use
Specific to coastal stormsADD REFERENCE
11/22/2014
8
Nature Conservancy Coastal Resilience Mapping Tool
ESRI powered geospatial analysis tool
Pre-loaded map layers of relevant demographic and ecological data
4 apps available for decision making purposes► Flood and Sea Level Rise (future projections)
► Habitat Explorer (weighing habitat importance)
► Community Planning (current data map layers)
► Future Habitat (projected marsh advancement)► Future Habitat (projected marsh advancement)
Local decision-makers and planners in coastal communities
Used for land management and wetland preservation prioritization
http://maps.coastalresilience.org/ct/
Resilience Alliance Social-Ecological Resilience Management Workbook
Meant for resource management and gplanning stakeholders
Workbook guides stakeholders through 5 steps of resilience assessment:► Defining your system
► Identifying alternate states and thresholds
► Evaluating dynamics based on system cycles
► Probing the system’s adaptability
Pl i i t ti► Planning interventions
Qualitative resilience assessment helps to frame current state of system, identify desirability of possible changes in system states and functions, and determine disturbances of concern. http://www.sustentabilidad.uai.
edu.ar/pdf/cs/practitioner_workbook_1.pdf
11/22/2014
9
Weaknesses of Existing Methods
Assessments built in ad-hoc manner based on specific expertise of agency.
Most agencies efforts are not framed in context of larger system. These efforts are each components of the necessary changes.
Assessments do not explicitly consider uncertainty
Assume future impacts will reflect past impacts and that locations of past events will be equally p q yimportant in future events.
Tools largely assess vulnerability through risk metrics rather than assess resilience through capabilities to absorb, recover, and adapt.
A highly networked system is governed by domains of warfare that organize system components and establish a basis for measurement.
Learning from Military
estab s a bas s o easu e e t
Physical: system performance in space and time.
Information: creation, manipulation and sharing information.
Cognitive: translating, sharing, and acting upon information to enable system management.
Social: interaction, collaboration and self-synchronization between individuals and entities.
11/22/2014
10
Resilience: Matrix ApproachResilience Matrix: Analyze the functionality of each domain of the system across each stageof the event timeline
Prepare Absorb Recover Adapt
• Uses general metrics for measuring relative system resilience
Diff t f l bilit t th t k
Prepare Absorb Recover Adapt
PhysicalInformation
CognitiveSocial
• Different from vulnerability assessment – threats unknown
• Useful for identifying weak areas and prioritizing investment to improve overall resilience
From Linkov et al, Env. Sci. & Tech 2013
Time
AdaptRecoverAbsorbPlan/PreparePrevious Cycle
• State and capability of • Event recognition and • System changes to • Changes to improvePhysical
Adverse Event
General Form of Resilience Matrix
• State and capability of equipment and personnel, network structure
• Event recognition and system performance to maintain function
• System changes to recover previous functionality
• Changes to improve system resilience
Physical
Information • Data preparation, presentation, analysis, and storage
• Real-time assessment of functionality, anticipation of cascading losses and event closure
• Creation and improvement of data storage and use protocols
• Data use to track recovery progress and anticipate recovery scenarios
Cognitive • System design and operation decisions, with anticipation of adverse events
• Contingency protocols and proactive event management
• Design of new system configurations, objectives, and decision criteria
• Recovery decision-making and communication
Social Social network social Resourceful and Addition of or changes toTeamwork andSocial • Social network, social capital, institutional and cultural norms, and training
• Resourceful and accessible personnel and social institutions for event response
• Addition of or changes to institutions, policies, training programs, and culture
• Teamwork and knowledge sharing to enhance system recovery
From Linkov et al, Env. Sci. & Tech 2013
11/22/2014
11
Ways to Quantify
From Keisler and Linkov, 2014
Assessment using Decision Analysis
Use developed resilience metrics to comparatively assess the costs and
benefits of different courses of action
11/22/2014
12
Pilot Study in Jamaica Bay, NYTest two analyses to calculate present-day resilience
• Tier 1: Resilience Matrix, screening
• Tier 2: Integrated Risk/Resilience Assessment using Bayesian probabilistic analyses; appropriate for design
NACCS Planning Reaches
Jamaica Bay
POC: Julie Rosati, ERDC, CHL
23
Jamaica Bay, NY
Tier 1 Screening: Resilience Matrix Approach
Jamaica BayGoal: Provide baseline assessment for intercomparing project alternatives
Approach:• Define extent of system & potential
GoodModerateLow
EcosystemHealth re
par
e
Res
ist
eco
ver
Ad
apt
disturbances• Identify function(s) to be evaluated; for Jamaica Bay:
• Ecosystem health• Housing/shelter
• Assess via expert elicitation* capacity of each cell in matrix• Results indicate:
• Gaps in system resilience
Health Pr R Re A
Physical System
Data & Analysis
Decision Support n/a
Communication
Housing and Shelter P
rep
are
Res
ist
Rec
ove
r
Ad
apt
• Gaps in system resilience• Project needs• Partner roles
Detailed assessment focused on Housing & Shelter
*Query experts; review literature; examine historical record
24
Physical System
Data & Analysis
Decision Support
Communication
11/22/2014
13
How will it work: Project Evaluation
Baseline assessment can be used to evaluate proposed projects Prepare Absorb Recover Adapt
Physical 71 16 60 10
Information 63 45 21 18
Cognitive 90 49 38 27
Social 82 54 12 52
43
Prepare Absorb Recover Adapt
Physical +10 +18 +9 +32
Information +8 +17
Cognitive
Social
Prepare Absorb Recover Adapt
Physical
Information +5 +15 +22
Cognitive
Social +3 +12 +21
Project 1 Project 2
Prepare Absorb Recover Adapt
Physical 81 34 69 42
Information 71 45 38 18
Cognitive 90 49 38 27
Social 82 54 12 52
Prepare Absorb Recover Adapt
Physical 71 6 60 10
Information 63 50 36 40
Cognitive 90 49 38 27
Social 85 54 24 73
51 47
*Projects may have (+) or (-) in other matricies
Future: Network Science
We quantify resilience by using network science approach by considering the different domains as interdependent multiplex networks.
11/22/2014
14
Resilience and Network Science
A simple illustration of the model, in which a city depends on Power, Mobile Communication and Water services, the latter of which are in turn dependent on Electrical power.
Here:• Power Plant: supplier• City: demander
Cell Water: both suppliers and• Cell, Water: both suppliers and demanders
UK US
Organization Top-down integrated approach
Parallel but independent agency efforts
Scope Detailed national risk Community-level risk and
Country Comparison
assessmenty
recovery assessment; agency performance monitoring
Threats Off-shore natural disasters, cyber attack, international terrorism
Flooding, domestic natural disasters, cyber attack
Tools Planning toolkits for communities and businesses
Planning toolkits for communities and assessment frameworks for localframeworks for local governments
Focus Critical Infrastructurevulnerability and cascading consequences
Critical Infrastructure and capacity to maintain
Process-based, descriptive Metrics, more prescriptive
11/22/2014
15
Top-DownResilience/ Decision &Network
Analysis
Bottom-UpRisk Assessment
Goal Identification and Problem Framing Management
Risk-Resilience Integration
-
What are the goals, alternatives, and
constraints?
Decision Model-
What are the criteria and metrics, How do we measure
decision-maker valuesPhysical/Statistical Model
-
What is the hazard?What is exposure?
Risk Characterization-
What are the risks relative to a threshold? How do they compare
to other alternatives?
Modeling
g
Metrics Generation and Alternative Scoring
-
How does each alternative score along our identified
criteria and metrics?
Data Collection-
What are fundamental properties/mechanisms
associated with each alternative?
Data Collection
Linkov et al., 2014
References Linkov, I., Eisenberg, D. A., Bates, M. E., Chang, D., Convertino, M., Allen, J.
H., Flynn, S. E., Seager, T. P. (2013). Managing resilience to meet national needs. Environmental Science & Technology 47:10108-10110.
Park, J., Seager, TP, Rao, PCS, Convertino, M., Linkov, I. (2013). Contrasting risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems. Risk Analysis 33: 356–367.systems. Risk Analysis 33: 356 367.
Linkov, I., Eisenberg, D. A., Plourde, K., Seager, T. P., Allen, J., Kott, A (2014). Resilience Metrics for Cyber Systems. Environment, Systems and Decisions 33:471-476.
Roege, P., Collier, Z.A., Mancillas, J., McDonagh, J., Linkov, I. (2014). Metrics for Energy Resilience. Energy Policy 72:249–256.
Linkov, I, Kröger, W., Levermann, A., Renn, O. et al. (2014). Changing Resilience Paradigm. Nature Climate Change 4:407-409.
Ei b D A Li k I P k J Ch D B t M E S T (2014) Eisenberg, D.A., Linkov, I., Park, J., Chang, D., Bates, M.E., Seager, T., (2014). Resilience Metrics: Lessons from Military Doctrines. Solutions 5:76-87.
Keisler, J. and Linkov, I. (2014). Models, Decisions and Environment. Environment, Systems, Decision 4:369–372.
Collier, Z., Linkov, I. (2014). Decision Making for Resilience within the Context of Network Centric Operations. In: Proceedings of the 19th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium.
11/22/2014
16
Call for Papers: Springer’s Environment, Systems and Decisions
ESD provides a catalyst for research and innovation inresearch and innovation in cross-disciplinary and trans-disciplinary methods of decision analysis, systems analysis, risk assessment, risk management, risk communication, policy
31
communication, policy analysis, environmental analysis, economic analysis, engineering, and the social sciences.