Post on 13-Jan-2015
description
Monitoring of climate system
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2003-2012 average)
2.6 ± 0.5 GtC/yr
27%
8.6 ± 0.4 GtC/yr 92%
+ 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 8%
2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr
27% Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components
4.3±0.1 GtC/yr
45%
It is extremely likely that more than 50% of the warming
since 1951 is due to the increase in greenhouse gases
and other anthropogenic forcings together
IPCC AR5 2013
It is warmer across the globe than it was a century ago
Global natural disasters 1980 – 2013 Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events
Representative Concentration Pathways
Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an
overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Ranges for predicted surface
warming
Projections Europe (RCP4.5) 2081-2100 versus 1986-2005
Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%)
winter summer winter half summer half
2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERCEN
TAG
E O
F
YIE
LD
PRO
JECTIO
NS
0 2090-2109
0 – -5%
-5 – -10%
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increase in Yield
Decrease in Yield
Crop Yield Change
Alleviating rivalries between
economic sectors?
Climatic
change Water
resources
Tourism Agriculture Mining
Conflict mitigation through improved
water governance?
Energy
WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS
INCREASE
RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE