Lecture 11September 20th, 2010

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Economic Policy in the Open Economy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•Under a flexible exchange rate system

▫Combinations of income and interest rates not on the BP curve will cause disequilibrium in foreign exchange markets Forcing an adjustment in the exchange rate.

•This will cause the BP curve to shift.

The Effects of a Currency Depreciation on the BP Curve

Y

iBP

0

A depreciation expands exports and contracts imports.

For any given level of Y, a lower i is required to balance the BOP.

BP1

The Effects of a Currency Appreciation on the BP Curve

Y

i

BP0

An appreciation contracts exports and expands imports.

For any given level of Y, a higher i is required to balance the BOP.

BP1

Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital immobility

▫Fiscal stimulus increases Y and i.▫This creates an incipient BOP deficit,

causing a depreciation and a rightward shift of the BP curve.

Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

income

iBP0

IS

LM

i0

Y0

IS'

Perfect capital immobility

BP1

Y2

Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital immobility

▫Fiscal stimulus increases Y and i.▫This creates an incipient BOP deficit,

causing a depreciation and a rightward shift of the BP curve.

▫The depreciation increases exports, decreases imports, and shifts IS even farther rightwards.

•This continues until IS, LM, and BP intersect at a common point.

Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

income

iBP0

IS

LM

i0

Y0

IS'

Perfect capital immobility

BP1

IS ''

i3

Y2

Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital immobility

▫Fiscal stimulus increases Y and i.▫This creates an incipient BOP surplus,

causing an appreciation of the currency.▫The appreciation decreases exports,

increases imports, and shifts IS back to the left.

Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

income

i

BP

IS

LM

iE

Y0

IS'

Perfect capital mobility

Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•The bottom line:

▫When capital is relatively immobile Fiscal policy is more effective at increasing

national income.▫When capital is relatively mobile

Fiscal policy is less effective at increasing national income.

▫Between these two extremes, the effect on the exchange rate depends on the relative slopes of LM and BP. BP steeper than LM: depreciation LM steeper than BP: appreciation

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital immobility

▫Monetary stimulus increases Y, and the increase in imports causes an incipient BOP deficit to emerge.

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

income

iBP

IS

LM

Ei0

Y0

LM'

Perfect capital immobility

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital immobility

▫Monetary stimulus increases Y, and the increase in imports causes an incipient BOP deficit to emerge.

▫As currency depreciates, BP shifts rightward.

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

income

iBP

IS

LM

Ei0

Y0

LM'

Perfect capital immobility

BP'

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital immobility

▫Monetary stimulus increases Y, and the increase in imports causes an incipient BOP deficit to emerge.

▫As currency depreciates, BP shifts rightward.

▫Depreciation also shifts IS rightwards.

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates

income

iBP

IS

LM

Ei0

Y0

LM'

Perfect capital immobility

BP'

IS'

i2

Y2

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital mobility

▫Monetary stimulus increases Y.▫This generates a large capital outflow and a

depreciation of the home currency.

Monetary Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates

income

i

BP

IS

LM

iE

Y0

LM'

Perfect capital mobility

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates•With perfect capital mobility

▫Monetary stimulus increases Y.▫This generates a large capital outflow and a

depreciation of the home currency.▫The depreciation causes LM to shift

outwards.

Monetary Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates

income

i

BP

IS

LM

iE

Y0

LM'

Perfect capital mobility

IS'

Y2

Monetary Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates

▫The bottom line: When capital is relatively immobile

Monetary policy is effective at increasing national income.

When capital is relatively mobile Monetary policy is particularly effective at

increasing national income.

Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates

▫Coordination of fiscal and monetary policy may make the attainment of other targets besides income possible.

▫Examples of alternative targets include Interest rates Exchange rates.

▫Consider an income and interest rate target of Y* and i*as an example.

Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates

▫If fiscal policy alone is used to reach Y* It is likely that the interest rate will

overshoot the target of i*.

Policy Coordination: Fiscal Policy Alone

LM

BP0

IS

Y0

i0

ISFP

Y*

iY*

Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates

▫If fiscal policy alone is used to reach Y* It is likely that the interest rate will

overshoot the target of i*.▫In addition, the fiscal policy creates an

incipient BOP surplus Appreciating the currency Shifting BP back to the left.

Policy Coordination: Fiscal Policy Alone

LM

BP0

IS

Y0

i0

ISFP

Y*

iY*

BPFP

Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates

▫If fiscal policy alone is used to reach Y* It is likely that the interest rate will

overshoot the target of i*.▫In addition, the fiscal policy creates an

incipient BOP surplus Appreciating the currency Shifting BP back to the left.

▫The depreciation also shifts IS part of the way back to the left.

▫In the end, neither target is reached.

Policy Coordination: Fiscal Policy Alone

LM

BP0

IS

Y0

i0

ISFP

Y*

i*

iY*

BPFP

IS'FP

YFP

iFP

Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates

▫If monetary policy alone is used to reach Y* Increase in Ms will cause a currency

depreciation Rightward shift in BP.

Policy Coordination: Monetary Policy Alone

LM

BP'

IS

Y0 Y*

BP

LM'i

Y

i0

i*

Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates

▫If monetary policy alone is used to reach Y* Increase in Ms will cause a currency

depreciation Rightward shift in BP.

▫In addition, the monetary policy shifts IS rightwards.

▫In the end, neither target is reached.

Policy Coordination: Monetary Policy Alone

LM

BP'

IS

Y0 Y*

BP

IS'

Y'

LM'

i'

i

Y

i0

i*

Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates

▫If monetary and fiscal policies are used, both i* and Y* can be attained.

▫Expansionary fiscal policy allows Y to increase without the expenditure switching effects.

Policy Coordination: Monetary Policy Alone

LM

IS

Y0 Y*

BP

IS'

LM'

i0

i

Y

i*

Effects of Shocks in the IS/LM/BP Model (Imperfect K-Mobility)

▫So far, we’ve examined the effects of fiscal and monetary policy holding a number of factors constant, including domestic and foreign prices, foreign interest rate, and expected exchange rate changes.

▫How are changes in such variables (“shocks”) transmitted through the economy?

Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Price Shock

▫If the foreign price level were to increase, the home economy would expand due to increases in exports and decreases in imports (IS shifts right).

▫The BP also shifts right due to expenditure switching effects of higher foreign prices.

Foreign Price ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

IS'

i0

i

Y

BP'

Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Price Shock

▫If the foreign price level were to increase, the home economy would expand due to increases in exports and decreases in imports (IS shifts right).

▫The BP also shifts right due to expenditure switching effects of higher foreign prices.

▫Both effects cause i to rise, and the currency to appreciate.

Foreign Price ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

IS'

i0

i

Y

BP'

Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Price Shock

▫If the foreign price level were to increase, the home economy would expand due to increases in exports and decreases in imports (IS shifts right).

▫The BP also shifts right due to expenditure switching effects of higher foreign prices.

▫Both effects cause i to rise, and the currency to appreciate.

▫These shift IS and BP back to where they started.

Foreign Price ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

i0

i

Y

Effects of Shocks: A Domestic Price Shock

▫If the domestic price level were to increase, the real money supply would fall, shifting LM leftwards.

Domestic Price ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

i0

i

Y

LM'

Effects of Shocks: A Domestic Price Shock

▫If the domestic price level were to increase, the real money supply would fall, shifting LM leftwards.

▫Exports will fall and imports rise, so IS shifts leftwards.

Domestic Price ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

i0

i

Y

LM'

IS'

Effects of Shocks: A Domestic Price Shock

▫If the domestic price level were to increase, the real money supply would fall, shifting LM leftwards.

▫Exports will fall and imports rise, so IS shifts leftwards.

▫The BP curve will also shift left in order to bring the BOP back into equilibrium.

Domestic Price ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

i0

i

Y

LM'

IS'

BP'

i1

Y1

Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Interest Rate Shock

▫If the foreign interest rate were to increase, the home country should experience an outflow of short-term capita BP shifts leftwards. The home currency depreciates.

▫This shifts the IS curve rightward, and the BP curve back toward the right.

Foreign Interest Rate ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

i0

i

Y

IS'

BP'

Foreign Interest Rate ShockLM

IS

Y0

BP

i0

i

Y

IS'

BP'BP''

Y1

i1