Post on 31-Mar-2015
I, Allan Davison declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*: No
I have done consulting work for the following companies*: No
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*: None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*: None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
Making hunger history?
2
Where are we?
Where are we going?
Much better as a result of MDGs, but in 2015 hunger won’t yet be history
Hunger on a global scale will disappear, in 2 or 3 more 15y plans. New initiatives
We now know what works. 5-10 nations will keep pledges. None will forgo trade rules that favour rich at the expense of poor
What’s working, what’s not?
3
3 www.sfu.ca/global-nutritionplease disturb!
Allan Davison
adavison@sfu.ca
Make hunger history?
Aid isn’t workingTrade for profit instead
Trade barriers. Fair trade & aid
Population outstrips food supply
We give more than anyone!
Trillions wasted! - 1 b still starving
MDGs won’t be achieved
Most aid corrupt dictators Corrupt multinationals
2008 recession
Never promised 0.7%
“Trade not aid”
Broken promises
Malthus is wrong
4
V little is wasted
Yeah – ½ what EU gives!
Profit motive hasn’t worked - aid is needed
“They” didn’t cause it
You did so!
Wo
rld
GD
P $
PP
P p
er
cap
(es
t) 1
500-
2100
1500 2000$0
$5,000
$10,000
India to 1500
China + Indiato 1850
WesternEuropeto 1945
USA + WestEurope
since 1945
http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/
Manifest destiny of world - wealth
China +India 2040?
5
Number of malnourished world-wide
61970 1980 1990 2000 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000M
illio
ns
un
der
-no
uri
shed
(FA
O k
cal /
ho
use
ho
ld)
FAO data
water-carrier
See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECD, IFPRI
UNICEF 2009
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
kcal per household surveyed
World% undernourished
71970 1980 1990 2000 201015
33%
17%same data
22%
14%
1970 2010 2015 target 2030 FAO est
0
2000
4000
6000
8000Fed
Malnourished
Number fed & under-nourished worldwide
8
14%
Prediction
6%11%
Target
33%
88
millions
9
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf
Percentage stunted
60%
40%
20%
Africa
Asia
Latin Am
Last 2 or 3 points are projections
1980 & every 5 years
10
Paying for total strangers to eat?
Not us, not if it goes to corrupt
dictators” }
10
11
http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities
“Development aid”, not spent on poverty or development
Clawed back by unfair tradeEmergency aid Debt relief Refugee, Tied to benefit rich
“Phantom aid”, the wasted 47%Refers toODA, not
MDGs
Corrupt heads of state: Rich...
Series1
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Accept “bribes” to give trade concessions that impoverish their people
Accept personal & campaign “contributions” peddling influence. Could stop bribery at home & abroad by abolishing secret a/c
... & Poor
12
100s
bu
reau
crat
s
200s
MN
Cs
10s
corr
up
t d
icta
tors
1000
s p
resi
den
ts,
PM
s, b
ure
aucr
ats
in r
ich
wikipedia Lockheed
SwissAir
We know what works•Transparent & accountable , open bids
•Partnerships not paternalism
•Goals, objectives, timed milestones
•Strategies revised annually by both partners
•Externally monitored. No political pressure
•Sustainable emphasis on poverty, agriculture
•Serves recipient needs, not donor / ideology
•Firm long-term commitments: MV, Grameen
Unrealistic? Let’s see ...13
• Grameen Family of social enterprises
• Billionaire philanthropists & foundations
• The Millennium Village project
• Passionate & influential voices for change
• Scientists & students bring energy to future
• Instant spread of innovations: agric, educ, &c
Beyond MDGs: amazing changes
14 www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
15
Passionate renegades
15
The End
16
adavison@sfu.cawww.sfu.ca/global-hunger
adavison@sfu.cawww.sfu.ca/global-hunger
16
year2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2008 GDP/capita:Developing countries 3.93%
Developed countries -0.03Advantage = 3.96%
USDA data
17
% GDP/cap pa for poor nations cf % for rich
Number stunted (Unicef Data)
18
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
mill
ions
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.htmlhttp://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs
Most MDGs will be mostly met worldwide
19
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.html
http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs
“Phantom aid”: 47% is “wasted”
• Evaporating aid - promises … broken as soon as cameras turn elsewhere
• $ flow benefits the rich nations – tilted trade
• Aid with strings attached, contingent on UN votes, WB loans, unfair trade
• Dumped food surplus local farm economy
• Money given by corrupt rich people to “corrupt dictators”
20
UK banks in Nigerian
corruptionPaul Collier: The bottom billion20
Emergency aid isn’t intended for development
http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities