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Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Asian Monsoon…Asian Monsoon…
K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna KumarCIRES Visiting FellowCIRES Visiting Fellow
((kkrishna@colorado.edukkrishna@colorado.edu))
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
OutlineOutline• MonsoonMonsoon
MechanismsMechanismsScales of VariabilityScales of Variability
• MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible MONSOON-ENSO links and some plausible explanations of recent weakeningexplanations of recent weakening
• Empirical/Dynamical Prediction of Empirical/Dynamical Prediction of Monsoon RainfallMonsoon Rainfall
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
MonsoonsMonsoonsThe term ‘MONSOON’ is derived from the Arabic word The term ‘MONSOON’ is derived from the Arabic word
‘mausim’, ‘mausim’, which means which means season..season..
Since early times, the term monsoon has been used to signify Since early times, the term monsoon has been used to signify any annual climate cycle with a dominant seasonal wind any annual climate cycle with a dominant seasonal wind reversal.reversal.
Ramage’s (1971) criteria to delineate the monsoon areas of Ramage’s (1971) criteria to delineate the monsoon areas of the world:the world:
• Prevailing wind direction shifts by at least 120º between Jan and JulyPrevailing wind direction shifts by at least 120º between Jan and July• Average frequency of prevailing wind direction in Jan and July exceeds 40%Average frequency of prevailing wind direction in Jan and July exceeds 40%• Mean resultant wind in at least one of the months exceeds 3 m/sMean resultant wind in at least one of the months exceeds 3 m/s
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Global MonsoonsGlobal Monsoons(after C.S. Ramage, 1971)(after C.S. Ramage, 1971)
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Schematic of Schematic of Winter (NE) and Winter (NE) and Summer (SW) Summer (SW) Monsoons over Monsoons over AsiaAsia
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Sea Level Pressure and Wind Distribution during January and Sea Level Pressure and Wind Distribution during January and July in the TropicsJuly in the Tropics
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Migration of Tropical Rain belts from Austral Migration of Tropical Rain belts from Austral Summer to Boreal SummerSummer to Boreal Summer
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Monsoon –Monsoon – A Gigantic Land-Sea A Gigantic Land-Sea BreezeBreeze
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Role of Mountains and the Orography Role of Mountains and the Orography on Monsoonson Monsoons
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Indian Summer Monsoon FlowIndian Summer Monsoon Flow
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Impact of Impact of Mountain Uplift Mountain Uplift on Asian on Asian Monsoon:Monsoon:
850 hPa Winds850 hPa Winds
(Kitoh 2004 (Kitoh 2004 15Feb, J. Climate)15Feb, J. Climate)
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Impact on Impact on Rainfall Rainfall DistributionDistribution
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Impact of Impact of Mountains on the Mountains on the Northward Northward propagation of propagation of Rainfall in East Rainfall in East Asia and the very Asia and the very existence of Baiu existence of Baiu Rainfall in JapanRainfall in Japan
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Impact of Impact of Mountain Uplift Mountain Uplift on the on the formation of formation of Warm Pool in Warm Pool in the west Pacific the west Pacific and the east and the east Indian OceansIndian Oceans
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Indian Summer MonsoonIndian Summer Monsoon
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Semi-Permanent Systems of Indian MonsoonSemi-Permanent Systems of Indian Monsoon
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Dates of Normal Onset and Withdrawal of Monson Rains in Dates of Normal Onset and Withdrawal of Monson Rains in IndiaIndia
OnsetOnset WithdrawalWithdrawal
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Mean Rainfall PatternsMean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000)
Summer Monsoon(mm/season)
Annual(mm/year)
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Indian Summer Monsoon Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its VariabilityContribution to Annual Rainfall and its Variability
Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source : CMAP (1979-2000)Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Mean Annual Cycle of Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly RainfallAll-India Mean Monthly Rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rain
fall
(mm
/mon
th)
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Monsoon Monsoon VariabilityVariability
Intraseasonal Interannual Decadal/Century Millennia & longer
Onset/withdrawal; Active and break-monsoon phases;30-50 day oscillations; severe rainstorms
Droughts and floods
Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods
Changes in the areal extents of monsoons
Atmospheric variability;tropical-midlatitude interactions;Soil moisture;Sea surface temperatures
Atmospheric interactions;El Niño/ Southern Oscillation;Top layers of tropical oceans;Snow cover;Land surface characteristics
Monsoon circulation variations;Deep ocean changes;Greenhouse gases increase;Human activities;Biospheric changes;Volcanic dust
Global climate excursions;Ice ages;Warm epochs;Sun-earth geometry
Fact
ors
Fact
ors
Feat
ures
Feat
ures
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Intra-seasonal Oscillations:Intra-seasonal Oscillations:
Active/Break CyclesActive/Break CyclesMadden-Julian (30-60 day) OscillationsMadden-Julian (30-60 day) Oscillations
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Daily Evolution of Rainfall on all-India Daily Evolution of Rainfall on all-India ScaleScale
20022002 20032003
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OLR Anomalies OLR Anomalies Associated with Associated with prolonged break prolonged break situations in the situations in the Indian regionIndian region
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Madden-Julian Oscillations:Madden-Julian Oscillations:
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Eastward Eastward Propagating Propagating Tropical OLR Tropical OLR Anomalies (MJO)Anomalies (MJO)
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Northward Propagation of Cloud bands in the Indian Northward Propagation of Cloud bands in the Indian region known as 30-60 day Oscillationsregion known as 30-60 day Oscillations
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Interannual Variability of Indian Monsoon Interannual Variability of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and Links with Rainfall and Links with
El NiEl Niño – Southern Oscillationño – Southern Oscillation
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
The Stability of the Indian Summer The Stability of the Indian Summer MonsoonMonsoon
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Years
Rai
nfal
l (cm
)
Mean (R) = 84.8 cmStandard Deviation (S) = 8 cm
R
R+S
R-S
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, BoulderHydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
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Quasi-Biennial Cycle in Monsoon RainfallQuasi-Biennial Cycle in Monsoon Rainfall
Cycles/yearCycles/year
Biennial cycle in monsoon rainfall is attributed to theBiennial cycle in monsoon rainfall is attributed to theresponse of land-sea to strong/weak monsoonsresponse of land-sea to strong/weak monsoonsStronger monsoon leading to the cooling of the Indian land-massStronger monsoon leading to the cooling of the Indian land-massAnd the adjoining seas resulting in a weaker land-sea gradient in the And the adjoining seas resulting in a weaker land-sea gradient in the Next year and a weaker monsoonNext year and a weaker monsoon(refer to Gerry Meehl’s work for further understanding)(refer to Gerry Meehl’s work for further understanding)
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MonRF epochsMonRF epochs
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Schematic view of sea surface temperature and tropical rainfall in the the equatorial Pacific Ocean during normal, El Niño, and La Niña conditions
..
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Global Impacts Global Impacts of ENSOof ENSO
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Low-frequency co-variability of Monsoon Low-frequency co-variability of Monsoon Rainfall and ENSORainfall and ENSO
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Difference in the Composites of Winter (Prior to Monsoon) Surface Air Difference in the Composites of Winter (Prior to Monsoon) Surface Air Temperatures over the Eurasian Region during El Nino Events pre-Temperatures over the Eurasian Region during El Nino Events pre-
1980 and post-1980 periods1980 and post-1980 periods
(1981-97) – (1951-80)(1981-97) – (1951-80)El NinosEl Ninos
Diff. Climatologies of these PeriodsDiff. Climatologies of these Periods
Hydro-Climate Course Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, BoulderMarch 2004, CU, Boulder
Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and 200 (A,B) and the Composites of 200 (A,B) and the Composites of 200 for El Nino 200 for El Nino
Events pre-,post-80’s (C,D)Events pre-,post-80’s (C,D)
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Sea Surface Temp Anomalies in 1982 & Sea Surface Temp Anomalies in 1982 & 19971997
JJA 82 SON 82
JJA 97 SON 97
Monsoon Rainfall: -13%
Monsoon Rainfall: +2%
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Sea Surface Temp Anomalies: 1987 & Sea Surface Temp Anomalies: 1987 & 20022002
JJA 87 SON 87
JJA 02 SON 02
Monsoon Rainfall: -18%
Monsoon Rainfall: -19%
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Precipitation Anomalies: JJAPrecipitation Anomalies: JJA1982 1997
1987 2002
Monsoon Rainfall: -13% Monsoon Rainfall: +2%
Monsoon Rainfall: -18% Monsoon Rainfall: -19%
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Precipitation Anomaly in NE Australia (DJF) and NE Precipitation Anomaly in NE Australia (DJF) and NE Brazil (JFM) in 1988 and 1998Brazil (JFM) in 1988 and 1998
1988 1998
1988 1998
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Surface Temp Anomaly over North Surface Temp Anomaly over North America: DJFAmerica: DJF
1983 1998
1988 2003
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Precipitation/Forecasts of SST and Precipitation in JAS 2002 by Different GCMs
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SST Patterns Used for ENSO SST Patterns Used for ENSO ExperimentsExperiments
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SST Patterns Used for Indian Ocean SST Patterns Used for Indian Ocean ExperimentsExperiments
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AA
AA
CC
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Response of Indian Monsoon Rainfall to DifferentResponse of Indian Monsoon Rainfall to DifferentEl Nino Related SST PatternsEl Nino Related SST Patterns
Model Model MonsooMonsoon n RainfallRainfall
ENSO - ENSO - CTLCTL
NINODL-NINODL-NINONINO
ENSOGW-ENSOGW-ENSOENSO
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Bibliography on Monsoon ResearchBibliography on Monsoon Research
http://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Bibliography/http://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Bibliography/frameindex.htmlframeindex.html