Post on 16-Jan-2016
HSCB Investigators Conference1
Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Program
Dr. Robert E. FosterDirector, BioSystems
February 3, 2009
22
The Origin of HSCB investment
Broad DoD subject matter expert team (HSCB SPG study) identified 75 HSCB capability areas and found 73 areas with critical gaps, 37 of which had no investment.
Widespread agreement from all communities (Planners, Intelligence, Trainers, Experimenters) on lack of available and mature HSCB data, models and tools.
Success in Irregular Warfare relies most heavily on understanding the human dimension of red, green, and blue forces and how they influence warfare and SSTRO (References, e.g., OPLAN 7500, NSPD-44, DoDD3000.05, FM3-7, FM3-24).
In Irregular Warfare, socio-cultural issues propagate across strategic, operational, and tactical level.
33
Products Anticipated
Validated general-use software applications (e.g., GCCS HSCB portals; SKOPE updates)
Data/Knowledge generation, data management Forecasting aids for Intelligence analysis, Influence Ops, and planning Theory-based analytics and modeling Ethnographic-socio-cultural reasoning engine Automated scenario generation for red, white, gray side experimentation
Domain specific human-computer interfaces Visualization of HSCB (e.g., DCGS human terrain visualizations; CJMTK products) Influence operations COAA tools Decision Aid and Situation Awareness C2 software
Science base and knowledge Theory/Understanding HSCB influences and resulting software models
Ethnographically-valid socio-cultural behavior models Computational models of societies in transition (strategic analyses for DIME) Valid methodology
Training Validated mission rehearsal content Interactive multi-cultural interpersonal skills trainer/bilateral negotiation Computer generated forces Advanced distributed learning software environments
44
... unbiased, objective, valid science-based approaches to enable DoD Operations Planning, Information Operations, Analysis, Intelligence, Experimentation, and Training. It will create quantitative models & shaping tools that provide assessments, forecasts, options for courses of action (COAs), and decision support for understanding and reasoning about the human terrain of battlespaces.
HSCB will provide…
55
Operational Customer Environments for HSCB Product Transitions
Training & Mission RehearsalOperations Planning
Analysts NotebookMAP-Human Terrain toolkitJoint Integrative Analysis and PlanningCapability (JIAPC)
Tactical Language TrainerBattle Command Knowledge System
Experimentation
Politicaldiplomacy
Information
Military
economic
Military
Economic
Social
Infrastructure
Information
Multinational experimentsJoint Doctrine Experiments
Intelligence/InfluenceOperations
Intelligence Analysis
Apollo/AthenaAnalysts NotebookSkope
Assymetrical software kitSituational Influence Assessment ModuleJCURE data collection system
6
JFCOM
Army:Army Research Institute: - Leader adaptability - Training / Simulation ResearchArmy Research Lab: - Adv Decision Architectures - Joint Geospatial Enterprise ServicesNavy:Office of Naval Research: - SNA & CogSci Models - Assymetric Warfare
HSCB:- Distributed Common Ground Station (DCGS)- DIA & ODNI analysts (toolsets)- CENTCOM Operations Centers, COCOM Command & Control platforms- Combat training centers (JNTC, JRTC), Deployable training/mission rehearsal- JFCOM J9, JTF HQ, Mission Rehearsal and Training
Air Force:Air Force Research Lab:- Adversary Modeling- Predictive Intent
DoD
R &
E I
nves
tmen
ts
App
sH
SC
B ta
rget
s
OSD, DDR&E. STRATCOM:- Measuring Progress in Conflict
Environments (MPICE)- Integrated Conflict Early Warning
System (ICEWS)- Mapping the Human Terrain
(MAP-HT)- Sudan Study/SMA series
JFCOM:J9: SEAS (agent based M&S)
Training Ops Planning Experimentation
Army
HSCB HSCB
Air ForceA J
Intel/Influence Ops
Intel Analysis
ODNIN N
6.2/6.3
HSCB6.4
NSF: Social Science Theory
DHS
HSCB 2008
7
HSCB 2009
• Army Research Institute (Leader adaptability; Training/Simulation research)
• Army Research Lab (Advanced decision architectures; Geospatial enterprise services
• Office of Naval Research (SNA & CogSci models; Asymmetric warfare)
• Air Force Research Lab (Adversary modeling; Predictive intent)
• US Army TRISA (JNEM; MINERVA)• USACE (MPICE)
Transition Targets• Army/USMC/SOF Distributed Common Ground Station (DCGS)• Army Battle Command Knowledge System• DIA, ODNI, IC analysts (toolsets)• CENTCOM Operations Centers, COCOM Command & Control platforms• Combat training centers (JNTC, JRTC), Deployable training/mission rehearsal• JFCOM J9, JTF HQ, Mission Rehearsal and Training • Army TRADOC, USMC PMATRASYS cultural training•USAF C2 Collaborative Experimentation Environment (Windtunnel)
DoD
In
vest
men
ts
Ap
pli
cati
ons
HS
CB
Tar
gets
Training Ops Planning Experimentation
Army
HSCB HSCB
Air ForceA J
Intel/Influence Ops
Intel Analysis
JN N
6.2/6.3
HSCB6.4
Non-DoD Coordination
•ODNI
•DHS
•DoS
•DoE (PNNL)
• JFCOM (SEAS)• SOCOM (Influence operations)• PACOM/EUCOM (Strategic Modeling)• JIEDDO (Soc Dynamics Analysis IPT;
Cultural Preparation of the Environment)• PA&E (X-Games)• DARPA (ICEWS; COMPOEX) • OSD JCTD (Mapping the Human
Terrain)• NSF – Social Science Theory
PROGRAM OUTCOMES
Approaches to National Security problems (IW, SSTRO) have a HSCB THEORY BASE
A deep understanding of DATA, DATA MODELS, and DATA ACQUISITION techniques/methods
Modeling Applications are TRANSITIONED to users
HSCB-enabled TRAINING available for USG personnel
BACKUP
DODHFETAG November 5, 2008 1010
KEY MILESTONES
FUNDINGPROGRAM MOTIVATION
DESCRIPTION• Applied research, demonstration and prototyping-- to
develop social science and theory ; to establish methods, metrics, analytical tools; to apply socio-cultural models for understanding human behavior dynamics and human terrain forecasting; and, to transition technology and methods into use for intelligence analysis, operations analysis/planning, training, and joint experimentation.
• Explore the generalization of work in applied economics, political science, and applied statistics to military planning for irregular warfare (IW)
• Guide MURI & STTR/SBIR investment to HSCB focus• Achieve TRL Level 7-8 technology transitions using BA3
demonstrations and BA4 prototyping• Performers: Extramural grants and contracts (competitive)
Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) Bundle
-- PE 0602670D8Z, PE 0603670D8Z, PE 0604670D8Z --
• FY07-Revalidate needs and gaps, establish program execution plan; issue BAA (BA2) and “call-for-whitepapers” (BA3)
• FY07- STTR & SBIR BAAs (10 topics total); repeat in 08-13• FY08 - apply DARPA REALWORLD to HSCB “cultural
awareness” training; provide software job aides for operational planners via Skope-like interfaces
• FY09 - apply initial computational models from MURI projects into DCGS-A use scenarios (C2)
• FY10 - apply theory of human social dynamics & behavior into JFCOM simulation environments
• FY08-10 – complete annual “shoot-offs”– e.g., of data collection strategies/infrastructures for computational models within “Skope” or other military planning systems
• 2006 QDR: Need for improved use of socio-cultural information in GWOT and Irregular Warfare (IW)
• OPPLAN 7500/CONPLAN 7500: Irregular Warfare
• DoDD 3000.05 (Stability, Security, Transition & Reconstruction): Provide research base for stability operations and planning.
• SPG (HSCB) study: Identified 37 critical capability gaps to supports strategic-to-tactical planning & operations.
• Most Pressing Military Issue (JCS): Increase & improve IW capacity in conventional forces (language, cultural, behavioral, HUMINT) & ability to model irregular challenges
See Current Congressional R2’s for budget profile
11
6.1
Influence Ops TacticalOps/Ops PlanningIntelligence
Tactical StrategicOperational
6.4 (HSCB only)
6.2/6.3Tactical StrategicOperational
Influence Ops TacticalOps/Ops PlanningIntelligenceAFRLAFRL
AFRL DARPAODNI
ODNI DARPA
ERDC
NDU
ERDC
NDU
BA level
2008 Major Efforts
Tactical StrategicOperational
Influence Ops TacticalOps/Ops PlanningIntelligence
ARI ONR AFOSR
ARIONRAFOSR
1212
Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Background
Recognized Operational Need:
“..the QDR acknowledges that victory in this long war depends on information, perception, and how and what we communicate as much as application of kinetic effects. These cultural and language capabilities also enhance effectiveness in a coalition setting during conventional operations.” Gen. P. Pace (2006 QDR: Commander’s Assessment)
“I asked my Brigade Commanders what was the number one thing they would have liked to have had more of, and they all said cultural knowledge.” Lt. Gen. P. Chiarelli (Dec 06)
“Must develop the ability to understand the complex human factors and must incorporate them into all facets of operations.” Maj. Gen. L. Freakley, CG 10th Mountain Div (Operational Needs Statement, Feb 06)
1313
Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling Background
2006 QDR: “….the importance of early measures to prevent problems from becoming
conflicts and conflicts from becoming crises (pp.17-18)” “..This war is both a battle of arms and a battle of ideas – a fight against terrorist
networks and against their murderous ideology (p.24)” “..considerably improved language and cultural awareness to develop a greater
understanding of emerging powers and how they may approach strategic choices (p.31)”
“..Human intelligence, language skills and cultural awareness to understand better the intentions and motivations of potential adversaries and to speed recovery efforts (p.35)”
“..foster a level of understanding and cultural intelligence about the Middle East and Asia comparable to that developed about the Soviet Union during the Cold War (p. 78)”
DoDD 3000.05 (Military Support for Stability, Security, Transition and Reconstruction Operations):
“Stability operations are a core U.S. military mission…given priority comparable to combat operations….”
“U.S. military forces shall be prepared to perform...stability operations tasks…Rebuild indigenous institutions…..bottom-up economic activity and constructing necessary infrastructure… “
1414
HSCB Categories of Anticipated Deliverables
Theory & science base: a military science of societies, cultures, and associated human social dynamics and behaviors
Data Models and Methodologies: techniques and procedures for data collection, management and dissemination Formal data models and enabling data collection tools Protocols for meta-data tagging Protocols for geospatial visualization for planners and analysts
Computational Models: software for Command and Control (C2), intelligence and simulation systems Validated models to support Human Terrain understanding within
existing military planning and analysis systems Software delivered to new and existing training systems Validated models that supports AOR-specific Joint Experimentation
exercises