Post on 20-Aug-2015
@alecmuffett
@alecmuffettwww.alecmuffett.com
green lane securitywww.greenlanesecurity.com
www.greenlanesecurity.com
how to think clearlyabout (cyber) security
v2.0
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
2this word is both a metaphor
and a model for thinking about the challenges of information
and network security
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
3this model, with perhaps one exception, is unsuited to describe the challenges of
information and network security
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
4this model has been adopted bystate actors as key to discussion and/or strategic consideration
of information and network security
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
5strategy based upon this model
tends to be misconceived, expensive,and of an illiberal nature
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
6unless diluted with other perspectives,
this model is a lever for increased state control of
information and network security that will harm the evolution of the field
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
underlying assumption is that cyberspace is sufficiently like realspace
and much the same rules can apply
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
theft in realspace•if I steal your phone
• you no longer have it• it is gone
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
theft in cyberspace•if I steal your data
• you still have it• unless I also destroy your copies
• assuming you haven’t backed-up your data
• you no longer have secrecy• not the same as “loss”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
later debate:is intellectual property theftactually theft (ie: crime) ...
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
... or is it like copyright infringementand/or patent infringement
(ie: typically a tort)?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
“An area of Internet the size of Walesis dedicated to cybercrime!”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Can a case for newspaper regulationto be applied to newspaper twitterers?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Why regulate newspapers & journalists on Twitter,
yet not regulate Stephen Fry?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
On Twittereveryone is precisely the same size
0 = no twitter account1 = twitter account
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
On Twittereveryone has equal capability
tweet, or not-tweet, that is the question
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
On Twittersome have much greater reachwhich is not the same thing as size*
* especially not “size of Wales”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
a node/vertex/twitterer is a point- ie: of zero dimension -
hence all twitterers are the same size
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
the degree of a twittereris the number of followers,
the number of people with whomyou communicate
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
the only metrics on twitter•volume
• number of tweets
•indegree• number of followers
•outdegree• number of people you follow
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
so which of these three metricsshould trigger state regulation
of your twitterfeed?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
if none, perhaps regulation shouldpertain to the author & his message
rather than the medium
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
if the medium is irrelevant and open,why discuss regulation of the medium
rather than of its users?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
“Where are the boundaries ofBritish (or American, etc) Cyberspace?”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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Cyberspace lies at the heart of modern society; it impacts our personal lives, our businesses and our essential services. Cyber security embraces both the public and the private sector and spans a broad range of issues related to national security, whether through terrorism, crime or industrial espionage.
E-crime, or cyber-crime, whether relating to theft, hacking or denial of service to vital systems, has become a fact of life. The risk of industrial cyber espionage, in which one company makes active attacks on another, through cyberspace, to acquire high value information is also very real. Cyber terrorism presents challenges for the future. We have to be prepared for terrorists seeking to take advantage of our increasing internet dependency to attack or disable key systems.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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Telephoneworld lies at the heart of modern society; it impacts our personal lives, our businesses and our essential services. Phone security embraces both the public and the private sector and spans a broad range of issues related to national security, whether through terrorism, crime or industrial espionage.
E-crime, or phone-crime, whether relating to theft, hacking or denial of service to vital systems, has become a fact of life. The risk of industrial phone espionage, in which one company makes active attacks on another, through Telephoneworld, to acquire high value information is also very real. Phone terrorism presents challenges for the future. We have to be prepared for terrorists seeking to take advantage of our increasing communications dependency to attack or disable key systems.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
The UK must control master Telephoneworld! Cyberspace!
the Internet!
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
to control communication:•you must define it•...and/or...•you must inhibit it
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
to define communication•propaganda
• a bad word in government lingo• also marketing & public relations
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
it’s safest for government to pretendthat cyberspace is a space
filled with bad people
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
to achieve masterythe internet must be widely perceived
as a space which can be policed,as a battleground in which war
may be prosecuted...
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
is British Cyberspace the union ofevery Briton’s ability to communicate?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
is cyberspace the boundary of storageof every and all Britons’ data?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
...then British Cyberspace extends into GMail and Facebook servers in the USA.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
is British Cyberspace the sum overdigital/cyberactivities of all Britons?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
...then the state seeks to limitlegal (or, currently non-criminal)
activities and reduce libertiesof only its citizenry
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Government is curiously unwillingto clarify the matter of boundaries.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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The cost of cybercrime to the global economy is estimated at $1 trillion
[US General Keith] Alexander stated and malware is being introduced at a rate of
55,000 pieces per day, or one per second.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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The annual cost of cybercrime is about $388 billion, including money and time lost, said Brian Tillett, chief security
strategist at Symantec. That’s about $100 billion more than the global black market
trade in heroin, cocaine and marijuana combined, he said.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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Symantec’s Math•$388bn =
• $114bn “cost” + • $274bn “lost time”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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Cabinet Office“In our most-likely scenario, we estimate the cost of cyber crime to the UK to be
£27bn per annum”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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ITproCyber criminals will cost the UK economy
an estimated £1.9 billion in 2011, according to a Symantec report.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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The theft of Intellectual Property (IP) from business, which has the greatest economic impact of any type of cyber crime is estimated to be £9.2bn per annum. p18
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
This gave an overall figure for fiscal fraud by cyber criminals of £2.2bn. p19
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Overall, we estimate the most likely impact [of online theft is] £1.3bn per annum, with the best
and worst case estimates £1.0bn and £2.7bn respectively. p21
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Cyber crime Economic impact
Identity theft £1.7bn
Online fraud £1.4bn
Scareware & fake AV £30m
p18
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
“The proportion of IP actually stolen cannot at present be measured with any
degree of confidence” p16
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
“It is very hard to determinewhat proportion of industrial espionage
is due to cyber crime” p16
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
“Our assessments are necessarily based on assumptions and informed judgements
rather than specific examples of cybercrime, or from data of a classified
or commercially sensitive origin” p5
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
US: “malware is being introducedat a rate of 55,000 pieces per day”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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You just have to look at some of the figures, in fact over 50%, just about 51% of the malicious
software threats that have been ever identified, were identified in 2009.
Theresa May, Today Programme, Oct 2010
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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Symantec “Global Internet
Security Threat Report- Trends for 2009”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
In 2009, Symantec created 2,895,802 new malicious code signatures (figure 10). This is a 71 percent increase over
2008, when 1,691,323 new malicious code signatures were added. Although the percentage increase in signatures added is less than the 139 percent increase from 2007 to 2008, the overall number of malicious code signatures by the end of
2009 grew to 5,724,106. This means that of all the malicious code signatures created by Symantec, 51
percent of that total was created in 2009. This is slightly less than 2008, when approximately 60 percent of all
signatures at the time were created.
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
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McAfee Threat Report:Fourth Quarter 2010
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Malware Reaches Record Numbers
Malicious code, in its seemingly infinite forms and ever expanding targets, is the largest threat that McAfee Labs combats daily. We have seen its functionality increase every
year. We have seen its sophistication increase every year. We have seen the platforms it targets evolve every year with increasingly clever ways of stealing data. In 2010
McAfee Labs identified more than 20 million new pieces of malware.
Stop. We’ll repeat that figure.
More than 20 million new pieces of malware appearing last year means that we identify nearly 55,000 malware threats every day. That figure is up from 2009. That
figure is up from 2008. That figure is way up from 2007. Of the almost 55 million pieces of malware McAfee Labs has identified and protected
against, 36 percent of it was written in 2010!
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
politicians & generals are usingglossy marketing reports
to bolster strategy?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
£640m•cyberinvestment breakdown
• operational capabilities 65% • critical infrastructure 20% • cybercrime 9% • reserve and baseline 5%
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
“...but the US is spending $9bn* on cybersecurity;
are we spending enough?”- Audience Member, BCS Meeting Cyber Challenges of 2012
* Actually closer to $11bn
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Of the £640m
9% (£58m) goes to cybercrime
65% (£416m) goes to operational capabilities
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Maybe-CNI Events•2007: Estonia
• no banks, services, food
•2009: Russia/Ukraine Gas• people freezing
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Non-CNI Events•2011: Aurora/GMail
• espionage• who died?• what service was lost?• where did a bomb go off?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
so there is cyber-war...but it should not dominate all strategy
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
You might ask:where’s the harm in overall
cyberspace/security philosophy?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
What’s a politician more likely to tell the public?
1) “you’re on your own”2) “we’re sorting it out for you”
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Who is better to be responsiblefor a family’s cybersecurity?
1) the family members2) state cyber-police
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
karmic cycle•technologies change
• people complain
•problems arise• people complain
•problems get fixed• people complain
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
...it’s actually a terrible idea -do not share this with people...
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
a great idea,to the extent limited by
bureaucracy, goals and targets
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
...and any Government projectto lead security would be likewise?
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
But if you could address security efficiently, in a distributed manner...
@alecmuffett www.greenlanesecurity.com
Perhaps cybersecurity isn’t actuallyabout protecting the public?