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How Strategic Intelligence Elevates New Business Development Success
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// 21 August 2013
~ featuring ~
Terry Thiele Derek Johnson
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Terry Thiele
Terry Thiele has been with The Lubrizol Corporation for 13 years, during which time his principal responsibilities have included strategic planning support and regulatory compliance and advocacy, with an emphasis on environmental matters. Before joining Lubrizol, Terry performed environmental policy and government relations functions for AB Electrolux and the General Electric Company. Prior to that he spent the first 11 years of his career working in the Federal government with service in the Treasury Department, the Central Intelligence Agency, The Defense Intelligence Agency and the Executive Office of the President. He received his B.A. magna cum laude from Princeton University in 1976, his J.D. from the NYU School of Law in 1979 and graduated from the National War College in 1987. Terry served for over 10 years in the U.S. Army Reserve, Judge Advocate General Corps, honorably discharged with the rank of captain.
Email: Terry.Thiele@lubrizol.com
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-world business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
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Questions, Commentary & Content
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Agenda
► New Business Development Definitions
► Why NBD is Critical
► NBD Challenges
► Finding NBD Opportunities
► Summary, Q&A and Discussion
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New Business Development (NBD) Definitions
Evolutionary innovation improves an existing value chain incrementally
Revolutionary innovation step-change improvement to existing value chain
Disruptive innovationdisrupts existing value chain with new and different value proposition
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Forms of NBD
Design Parameters
Cust
omer
Val
ueEvolutionary Innovation: incremental change
(“mountain climbing”)
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Forms of NBD
Design Parameters
Cust
omer
Val
ueRevolutionary Innovation: step-change
(“chasm leaping”)
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Forms of NBD
Design Parameters
Cust
omer
Val
ueDisruptive Innovation: different game
(“rule breaking”)
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Forms of NBD
New Product Development
vs.
New Business Development► New products► New markets► New value propositions
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Porter’s Five Forces
Why NBD is Critical
http://hbr.org/product/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy/an/R0801E-PDF-ENG?referral=00269
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/11/20/what-killed-michael-porters-monitor-group-the-one-force-that-really-matters/?utm_medium=linkedin
Why NBD is Critical
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/11/20/what-killed-michael-porters-monitor-group-the-one-force-that-really-matters/?utm_medium=linkedin
Why NBD is Critical
What has no future is strategy conceived as defeating rivals by finding a sustainable comparative advantage simply through studying the structure of the industry and juggling the numbers.Since Monitor had no other arrow in its strategy quiver, it was doomed from the outset. Its embarrassing debacle marked the beginning of the end of the era of business metaphysics and the exposure of the most over-valued idea on the planet: sustainable competitive advantage.
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Why NBD is Critical
Value Creation – Stability – Value Destruction
Mar
ket V
alue
–
Rev
enue
High GrowthHigh MarginsHigh CostLow Competition
Static GrowthModerate MarginsDeclining CostIncreasing Competition “Commodity”
Value Migration“One of a Kind”
Declining GrowthShrinking MarginsLow CostHigh Competition
Slywotzky, Adrian J. (1996), Value Migration: How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition, Boston, Mass: Harvard Bus School Press, ISBN 0-87584-632-7.
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Why NBD is Critical
Running a business is like riding a bicycle…
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Why NBD is Critical
If you don’t keep peddling…
Running a business is like riding a bicycle…
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Why NBD is Critical
You fall over.
Running a business is like riding a bicycle…
If you don’t keep peddling…
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NBD Challenges
http://www.learnlogic.net/ideation-integrated-into-processes/
The importance of organization…
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NBD Challenges
CultureCultureCultureCulture
The importance of culture…
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NBD Challenges
The importance of market analysis…A cautionary tale
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NBD Challenges
The importance of TIME…A cautionary tale
Tolerances…
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So where do you start?
Go to where the food is…
Finding NBD Opportunities
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Strategic Business Planning– Assumes ability to forecast future events. – Focuses on planning for an anticipated future.– Driven by probable, not potential impact.
Scenario Planning– Identifies alternative possible futures X years out and then
looks back to the present (“backcasting”).– Possible futures based upon major transformational themes
likely to affect business beyond year X. – Driven by potential impact, not probability.
Finding NBD Opportunities
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Strategic Business Planning– Assumes ability to forecast future events. – Focuses on planning for an anticipated future.– Driven by probable, not potential impact.
Scenario Planning– Identifies alternative possible futures X years out and then
looks back to the present (“backcasting”).– Possible futures based upon major transformational themes
likely to affect business beyond year X. – Driven by potential impact, not probability.Scenario planning foresight to recognize, adapt and possibly
influence future events before they hit you…
Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
The Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
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Current – Products/Technology – New
Curr
ent –
Mar
kets
/Cus
tom
ers
– N
ew
SAFE
SCARY
Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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Finding NBD Opportunities: Scenario Planning
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1. Describe your entire value chain
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
RAW MATERIALS
TRANSPORTATION
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL CHANNEL 2
CONSUMER Ω
RETAIL CHANNEL 1 RETAIL CHANNEL n
CONSUMER A
WHO VALUES WHAT?
TRANSPORTATION
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2. Describe your competitors’ value chain(s)
RAW MATERIALS
TRANSPORTATION
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL CHANNEL 2
CONSUMER Ω
RETAIL CHANNEL 1 RETAIL CHANNEL n
CONSUMER A
TRANSPORTATION
WHO VALUES WHAT?
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
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3. Compare and contrast
WHO VALUES WHAT?
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
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4. ID critical uncertainties for each link in all value chains out X years.
NEW ALTERNATIVES?
RAIL CAPACITY?
3D PRINTING?
SHALE OIL IMPACT?
INTERNET SALES?
DEMOGRAPHICS?
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
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5. Assess the critical uncertainties. Are they evolutionary? revolutionary? disruptive?
NEW ALTERNATIVES?
RAIL CAPACITY?
3D PRINTING?
SHALE OIL IMPACT?
INTERNET SALES?
DEMOGRAPHICS?
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
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6. Take the two most “important” critical uncertainties for each value chain: build scenarios.
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
► Depending on the value chains, you may have more than one set of scenarios.
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Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
CURRENT
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7. Ask WHO VALUES WHAT in each scenario.► Directionally, this should point you toward future
potentially profitable value offerings. ► Depending on the critical uncertainties, how you choose
to act may influence which scenario actually emerges.
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
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8. Build your NBD strategy.
► STRATEGIC PLANNING: TOPIC FOR ANOTHER DAY ...
Finding NBD Opportunities: a methodology
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Finding NBD Opportunities: A WARNING …
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Finding NBD Opportunities: A WARNING …
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Terry Thiele
Thank you! Now how about a little Q&A?
Email: Terry.Thiele@Lubrizol.com
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-world business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!