How on Earth can we Live Together

Göran Carstedt

Stonehouse Summit, Jan 19 2009

Our Unsustainable Journey

• Global warming• Water scarcity• Biodiversity• Poverty• …• …

• Capacity– total income, excluding income below the development

threshold (USD 20/day)• Responsibility

– cumulative emissions since 1990 (excluding emissions from consumption below threshold)

• RCI– Responsibility Capacity Index

• Projections– IEA World Energy Outlook (2007)

• Target– emission reduction pathways to hold global warming

below 2 degrees Celsius (peak 2013 (429 ppm), 80% below 1990 level at 2050)

2010 2020 2030Population GDP per capita Capacity Responsibility RCI RCI RCI(%of global) ($ US PPP) (% of global) (% of global) (% of global) (% of global) (% of global)

CANADA 0,49 38 472 2,62 3,24 2,93 2,67 2,44PERU 0,42 7 355 0,2 0,06 0,13 0,14 0,15

SWEDEN 0,14 35 587 0,65 0,32 0,49 0,41 0,33TUNISIA 0,15 7 538 0,06 0,03 0,04 0,06 0,07

Canada & Sweden

Göran Carstedt 2007

Copenhagen November 2009

• Post Kyoto- National commitments• Risk for Success

– Political compromises– Nature not at the table

IPCC- Group III Report, May 2007

Global GHG emissions must be reduced by 50-80% to year 2050– to limit global warming to + 2 C– today’s 379 ppm must be leveled off at 350-400 ppm– assuming max point at the latest 2015

Global GHG emissions have increased by 70% from 1970 to 2004– by +24% since 1990– with Business as Usual, additional +25-90% by 2030

Total cost to stabilize GHG concentrations– less than 3% of global GNP year 2030= yearly global growth of 3.5% instead of 3.6%

GHG Emissions 1990-2004

Change TotalEurope 15 -0.6% 4.2 bln tCO2eq

Japan +6.5%1.3 bln

USA +16% 7.1 bln

Canada + 25% 0,7 bln

Australia +25% 0.5 bln

Source: UNFCCC (2006)

Kyoto objective -8% 1990-2012:

Göran Carstedt 2007

Germany -18.7%UK -15.7%Sweden -7.4% Italy +12.1%Ireland +25.4%Spain +52.3%

GHG Emissions Europe: 1990-2005

Source: EEA (2007) Göran Carstedt 2007

CO2 Emissions per Person

India 1 (ton per year)

China 5Sweden 7Germany 10USA/Canada 20

Global 4 (can absorb max 1,5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004  

pe

r c

ap

ita

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(t)

US

Canada

Australia

Poland

Germany

UK

Russia

India

Brazil

China

Source: US Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) for the United Nations Statistics Division.

Per capita CO2 emissions (in tonnes)

Emissions – targets & commitments

EU27: 20% 2020 (1990)Germany: 36% 2020 (1990)UK: 26% 2020 (1990) (into law)

France: 25% 2020 (1990)Sweden:30% 2020 (1990)Japan 6% 2012 (1990)China 20% 2012 (2007) (efficiency)

Göran Carstedt 2007

California: 25% 2020 (1990)London: 30% 2025 (1990)

+30% EU & UK Government

New York City: 30% 2030 (2007)Paris: 75% 2050 (2004)Stockholm: 60-80% 2050 (1990)Tokyo: 25% 2020 (2000)Rotterdam: 50% 2025 (1990)

Emissions – targets & commitments

Göran Carstedt 2007

European Parliament- dec 200820-20-20 Plan by 2020:• 20% reduction of GHG emissions (1990)• 20% increase in use of renewable energy• 20% improved energy efficiency

• +10% of transportation fuels= biofuels, electricity, hydrogen– GHG reductions compared with fossil fuels

35% -> 50% -> 60%(2011) (2013) (2017)

– Second generation biofuels = double credited– 2012: 130 g CO2/km – 2020: 95 g CO2/km– today: 160g CO2/km

Sweden (1990-2006)

GHG emissions down 8.7%

Economic growth up 44%

Sweden

• CO2 tax from 1990 ($ 120/ton CO2)• Electricity certificates• CO2 differentiated vehicle taxes• Tax exemtion for biofuels to 2012• Tax exemptions for energy saving retro fitting• Public education

SwedenThe Oil Commission (2005)- Independant of oil at 2020

– will succeed in heating of buildings• Biofuels (pellets)• Waste• Combined heat & power• Energy efficiency

– Transportation?• 2008: 35% of new cars sold- green cars

(mostly ethanol flexifuel)• Still small proportion of total fleet• Retrofitting of used cars coming

DenmarkVery hard hit by the oilcrises 1973

– Too dependant on oilimports– Today self suffiscient in energy– Exports oil, gas, electricity– More people wiling to pay higher prices for clean energy,

than in any other EU countryWhat did they do?

– Taxes on fuel and electricity– District heating system (waste & cogeneration)– Building codes– Subsidies to energy efficient appliances– Supporting Wind Farms (20% of electricity- Vestas)

Denmark

Energy consumption

1975-2005 +/- 0 (USA +40%)GDP 200%

Denmark= 6.600 kwh p.a. in electriciy per personUSA = 13.000 kwh

Price of electricity in Denmark compared to:

US +43%France +24%UK +19%

Obama

Yes, We can!

Transformational Change?

A leadership challenge…

- Technological challenge what technologies can help us?

- Political challenge what society do we want to live in?

- Organisational challenge how can we make it happen?

”I was struck by the countries that won’t meet their Kyoto targets… They aren’t lazy, they aren’t stupid

and they are not corrupt.

They’re well-meaning, hard-working people who are, like all political leaders, facing all kinds of

competing pressures in an economy that is not organized for tomorrow’s energy- it’s organized for

yesterday’s.”

- Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008

What if… our organizations are not capable to

deal with the complexities we are now meeting?

GC 2001

What if organizations don't act like machines, but more like living

communities?

GC 2001

What if…

change is less about reorganizing,restructuring and reengineering and more about

reconceiving?

GC 2001

GC 1997

What if people don’t mind change, but they do mind being

changed?

What if people are not led by managers, but by good ideas ?

GC 2001

What if you can only earn people's trust by being trustworthy?

(GC 1997)

Learning• Why do we confront learning opportunities with fear

rather than wonder?

• Why do we derive our self-esteem from knowing as opposed to learning?

• Why do we criticise before we even understand?

• Why do we create controlling bureaucracies when we attempt to form visionary enterprises?

• Why do we persist in fragmentation and piecemeal analysis as the world becomes more and more interconnected?

Peter Senge

Optimisticor

Pessimistic?

The Industrial Revolution- transformed our society

• no master plan• no starting/end point • not led by anyone• not an initiative of any political, governmental

or religious body

GC 2000

Industrial Revolutionen• The product of millions of small beginnings • A process of making things better • Outpouring of human creativity

Changing Perceptions- among the many people

GC 2000

”There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.”

- Victor Hugo