Post on 09-Jan-2016
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Housing market between choice and chance
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
M.I.K. Leussink
J.J.A.M. Smeets
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Content
• Introduction• Structure and use of housing stock Eindhoven• Allocation of housing• The choice based allocation system with lottery• Research method• Advertisements, applications, rejections and acceptations• Conclusions• Discussion
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Introduction
• Mature housing market• Qualitative mismatch• Starters / movers ratio: 20 / 80%• Adequate allocation system
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Figure A: Structure and use of the housing stock in Eindhoven (2007)
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
AllocationFrom Towards
Distribution model
Landlord controlled
Administrative allocation
Matching criteria
Passive attitude (waiting list)
Restricted freedom of choice
Supply model (CBL-model)
Quasi-market
Choice based allocation
No or less criteria
Active participation
Enlarged freedom of choice
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Allocation in Eindhoven
Since 2003 revisited allocation system• Freedom of choice• Counteracting segregation• Quality of live
Advertising of supply
Selection by lottery
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Benefits of a lottery (Boyle, 1994)
Hopefulness• You have not to wait many years, you have a chance soon
Fairness• In the long run the tenant mix reflect the make-up of the waiting list
Convenience• The administrators need only keep a list of those applying
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Choice (Brown & King, 2005)
• Capability to act
Effective choice (Brown & King, 2005)
• Connects choice with access to resources
Three principles for housing processes (King, 1996)
• Limitation of regulation• Control by users• Access to resources
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Figure B: the choice based allocation system with lottery
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Research method• Data-mining process
• Existing database: 13,264 active dwelling seekers• Internet survey: 3,780 participants
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Active house-hunters
At least one application in the last year
Age N %< 23 years 2883 21,8%24-30 years 5544 41,8%31-55 years 3855 29,1%56-70 years 720 5,4%71 > years 250 1,9%Total 13252 100,0%
= 63,6%
= 36,4%
≠ 20% starter
≠ 80% mover
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Rent-alerts
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Age House-hunters House-hunters with rent-alert Percentage< 23 years 2886 380 13,2%24-30 years 5544 1368 24,7%31-55 years 3783 1259 33,3%56-70 years 792 462 58,3%71 > years 259 185 71,4%Total 13264 3654 27,5%
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Advertisements and applications (1a)Types of dwelling
types of dwelling applications advertisements applications/advertisement chanceapartment with elevator 129.827 471 276 0,4%apartment without elevator 90.231 155 582 0,2%single-family dwelling 108.499 123 882 0,1%room/lodging 4.541 37 123 0,8%total 333.098 786 424 0,2%
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Advertisements and applications (1b)Rental price
rental price applications advertisements applications/advertisement chancecheap 141.611 304 466 0,2%affordable 183.011 380 482 0,2%expensive 8.476 102 83 1,2%total 333.098 786 424 0,2%
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Advertisements and applications (1c)Target groups
target groups applications advertisements applications/advertisement chance< 30 years old 26014 113 230 0,4%30-55 years old 298935 441 678 0,1%> 55 years old 8149 232 35 2,8%total 333.098 786 424 0,2%
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Advertisements and rejections (2a)Types of dwelling
types of dwelling advertisements rejections rejections/advertisementapartment with elevator 471 350 0,74apartment without elevator 155 67 0,43single-family dwelling 123 38 0,31room/lodging 37 61 1,65total 786 516 0,66
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Advertisements and rejections (2b)Rental price
rental price advertisements rejections rejections/advertisementcheap 304 225 0,74affordable 380 200 0,53expensive 102 91 0,90total 786 516 0,66
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Advertisements and rejections (2c)Target groups
target groups advertisements rejections rejections/advertisement< 30 years old 113 124 1,1030-55 years old 441 189 0,43> 55 years old 232 203 0,88total 786 516 0,66
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
• Acceptation applicants (3)
year 2007 2008 2009applicant N % N % N %1st 54 76% 165 73% 148 77%2nd 12 17% 37 16% 33 17%3rd 3 4% 14 6% 6 3%4th 2 3% 8 4% 4 2%5th 0 0% 2 1% 1 1%6th 0 0% 1 0% 0 0%Total 71 100% 227 100% 192 100%
Advertise the dwelling
Applicant reacts
Selection by drawing lots
The applicant is not selected
The applicant is selected
The dwelling is offered to theselected applicant
The applicant reject the offer
The applicant is not admitted
The applicant accepts the dwelling
Tenant moves out after x years
Dwelling is offered to the next applicant that is selected
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Conclusions
• Access to scarce resources
• Choices are competitive
• System more ‘chance-based’ then choice-based
• System more effectively for supplier
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Discussion
• Access to resources is not opened up by choice-based systems
• Information between applicants unequal
Housing allocation ‘by lottery’ in the rental market of Eindhoven
Housing market between choice and chance
Thanks for your attention
The full paper will be put into the ERES digital library:
http://eres.scix.net/cgi-bin/works/Search?search=year:2011+series:conference