Post on 09-Aug-2020
HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA
Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
July 2014
National Trends
Composition of distressed sales by geography
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions May 2014
13% 11% 9% 7% 11%
8% 4% 5% 5% 5%
13% 12%
12% 13%
8%
8%
7%
12% 10% 5%
6% 6%
5% 6% 3%
4% 9%
3% 4%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%Short Sale
Move-In Ready REO
Damaged REO
Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—May 2014 3 Month Moving Average
Perc
ent o
f Buy
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions May 2014
20%
39% 30%
50% 25%
45%
33%
36% 55%
15%
36%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
DamagedREO
Move-In ReadyREO
Short Sale Non-Distressed
Investor
First-TimeHomebuyerCurrentHomeowner
Perc
ent
of P
rope
rty
Type
Who Is Buying Properties?─May 2014 3 Month Moving Average
Financing for home purchases
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions May 2014
25% 11%
72% 14% 38%
2%
23% 19%
7%
8% 8%
30% 24% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors
All Other Financing
VA
Fannie/Freddie
FHA
Cash
Perc
ent
of B
uyer
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
Financing for Homebuyers─May 2014 3 Month Moving Average
California Trends
California’s unemployment rate trending down but still above national average (7.6% May 2014)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Recession
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
United States
California
California house prices back on the rise
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x 20
00=
100
90
130
170
210
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)
California
United States
Northern California house prices still rising
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x 20
00=
100
90
130
170
210
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FHFA House Price Index: Northern California (2000 = 100)
Oakland
Sacramento
San Francisco
Central Valley house prices trending up
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x 20
00=
100
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index: Central California (2000 = 100, quarterly)
Stockton
Fresno
Visalia
Merced
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x 20
00=
100
Southern California house prices trending up
90
130
170
210
250
290
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FHFA House Price Index: Southern California (2000 = 100, quarterly)
San Diego
Inland Empire
Los Angeles
Ventura
Number of delinquent mortgages and properties entering foreclosure process continues to fall
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Num
ber
of M
ortg
ages
Delinquent Mortgages and Foreclosure Starts - California
Foreclosure Starts All Mortgages Past Due
New housing starts slowly trending up
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New
Hou
sing
Uni
ts (
in th
ousa
nds)
New Housing Starts - California (Quarterly)
Source: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
LA rents up: $1,499 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 3%
0%
3%
6%
$1,320
$1,380
$1,440
$1,500
$1,560
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vacancy Rate A
skin
g Re
nt
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Los Angeles Quarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Inland Empire rents up: $1,104 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 2.6%
0%
3%
6%
9%
$960
$1,000
$1,040
$1,080
$1,120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vacancy Rate
Ask
ing
Rent
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Bernardino/Riverside Quarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
SF rents up: $2,171 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 2.9%
0%
3%
6%
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
$1,900
$2,000
$2,100
$2,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vacancy Rate A
skin
g Re
nt
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Francisco Quarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Fresno rents up: $842 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate at 2.8%
0%
4%
8%
$770
$800
$830
$860
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vacancy Rate A
skin
g Re
nt
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Fresno Quarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Sacramento rents up: $983 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 2.8%
0%
3%
6%
9%
$875
$900
$925
$950
$975
$1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vacancy Rate A
skin
g Re
nt
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Sacramento Quarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
State & Local Data Maps
California Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
California Data Maps
Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Bay Area Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Bay Area Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Sacramento Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Sacramento Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Central California Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Central California Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Central Coast Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Central Coast Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
LA Metro Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
LA Metro Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Inland Empire Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Inland Empire Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
San Diego Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
San Diego Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics
Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Conclusions
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