GROWTH REPORTER Q3 2017 - Nielsen...For 2017 the economic growth prognosis was raised to +2.0%. For...

Europe Market DynamicsGROWTH REPORTER Q3 2017

INTRODUCTION

Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe.

Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market.

Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels

Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels

Reports on the 3rd Quarter of 2017 Week 27, 2017 till week 39, 2017

ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN EUROPE DRIVES CPG SALES

The ECB (European Central Bank) expects the current +2.2% GDP growth for the Eurozone to continue for the rest of the year -the fastest growth in 10 years. This suggests that CPG growths will remain close to, or possibly higher, than current levels in Q4.

Whilst the Eurozone is experiencing a strong cyclical recovery which is helping CPG sales, the growth in UK GDP has stalled and consumers have been hit this year by a rise in inflation stemming from the depreciation in sterling. This is now beginning to impact sales volumes in the UK.

Context The major economies in Europe continue to grow faster than in 2016 due to stronger consumer demand, rising but still low levels of

inflation and improving levels of employment.

This is reflected in a nominal sales for the Nielsen Europe Growth Reporter increasing by +2.8% in Q3 compared to +1.1% a year ago.

However most of this growth is due to inflationary (unit value) growth and volume growth is more muted at +0.3%.

The Spanish, Swedish and French economies remain star performers, and as in Q2, there is a continuation of the sales recovery inSouthern Europe and lower (but sustainable) growth in Northern Europe.

Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

Europe - Austria, Belgium , Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.

1,1% 0,5%0,3% 0,3%

1,5%1,9%

0,7%1,3%

0,8%0,8%

0,1% 0,3%0,8%

0,9% 1,5% 1,7%

1,6%1,7%

1,3%0,7%

0,8%0,9%

1,4%1,8%

0,8%1,1%

2015 2016 MAT TY Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17

Volume change Unit value change Nominal Value Growth

REGIONAL SUMMARY – EUROPE

Q3 2017 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q3 2016)Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,1% -0,8% -1,6% -0,3%-1,9%

-1,2% -0,2%2,4%

-0,4%0,2%

2,6% 1,7% -0,4% 2,5%1,2%

-0,7%1,2% 2,1% 1,3% 3,0% 0,1% 3,5% 2,8% 2,1%

2,4%2,8%

1,7%4,2%

1,7%3,3%

6,1%5,2%

-0,6%0,4% 0,6% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,6% 1,9% 2,0% 2,0%

3,0% 3,1% 3,4% 3,8% 4,2% 4,5% 5,0% 5,2% 5,3%

14,9%Volume growth Unit value Nominal Value Growth

Denmark

Finland

Poland

France

Germany

SpainPortugal

Greece

ItalyTurkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

Estonia

LatviaLithuania

Belarus

Ukraine

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia Moldova

Bulgaria

Russia

Ireland

Great Britain

Monte-negro

SerbiaSlovenia

Croatia Bosnia-Herze-govina

Mace-donia

Albania

Norway

Nether-lands

Belgium

Sweden

Nominal Growth

Q3 2017 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q3 2016)

Growth Rate above Europe AverageGrowth Rate between “Zero” and Europe AverageGrowth Rate below “Zero”

Denmark

Finland

Poland

France

Germany

SpainPortugal

Greece

ItalyTurkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Belarus

Ukraine

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia Moldova

Bulgaria

Russia

Ireland

Great Britain

Monte-negro

SerbiaSlovenia

Croatia Bosnia-Herze-govina

Mace-donia

Albania

Norway

Nether-lands

Belgium

Sweden

Unit Value Growth

Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe AverageGrowth Rate below “Zero”

Growth Rate above Europe Average

Denmark

Finland

Poland

France

Germany

SpainPortugal

Greece

ItalyTurkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Belarus

Ukraine

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia Moldova

Bulgaria

Russia

Ireland

Great Britain

Monte-negro

Serbia

SloveniaCroatia Bosnia-

Herze-govina

Mace-donia

Albania

Norway

Nether-lands

Belgium

Sweden

Volume Growth

Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe AverageGrowth Rate below “Zero”

Growth Rate above Europe Average

MAJOR COUNTRIES

FRANCEHighlights

After several years the French market remains impacted by the price war (deflation on national brands, mainly) and promotional focus, enabling shoppers to find very good deals and savings. But more and more their is a demand from consumers for more qualitative products, searching for local produced items, organic products, innovations... all of this explaining the growth in value.

Small brands are gaining shares while Private Label are suffering and multinational brands relying on promotions and innovations tokeep their shares.

Dynamic channels like “Click & Drive” and “Convenience” keep growing

Nominal sales are recovering their growth (+1.0%), with volumes declining this quarter but still a positive Premiumization benefiting to the market.

Context

FRANCEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,6% 0,1%0,0%

1,3%0,6%

0,8% 0,7%

0,8%0,3%

-0,2%0,4%

0,8%1,0%

0,3%1,0% 1,1%

0,2%0,9% 0,4%

-0,1%1,3%

0,9% 1,0%0,6% 0,6%

1,7%1,5%

0,5%0,7% 0,8%

Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth

Click & Drive channel included from 2013 data (2014 trends) and Convenience Stores included from 2014 data (2015 trends);

GERMANYHighlights

The German economy continues to develop positively. The economic growth in the previous quarters amounted to +2.0% and +2.1%,respectively. For 2017 the economic growth prognosis was raised to +2.0%. For 2018 the prognosis amounts to +2.2.%.

This positive growth is mainly driven by the consumption of private households which is influenced by a decreasing rate of unemployment, increased wages and a low savings ratio. Also affecting the growth are rising investments and the booming construction sector as well as the positive international business.

After a moderate first half year with a growth rate of only +0.5%, the FMCG industry is able to grow by +1.6% in Q3. This growth is value and not volume driven (+2.8% value increase vs. -1.2% volume decrease).

Regarding the channels discounters show the highest growth rate with 2.6%, followed by drugstores with 2.1%.

Due to price increases of dairy products, categories like butter and milk are growing in value sales. But also trend segments like beard care (+84.0% vs. 2016) and face masks (+40.0% vs. 2016) show high growth rates.

Context

GERMANYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,8%-0,8%

-0,9% -0,8%0,4%

1,1%-0,2%

-1,5%-0,6% -0,3%

0,0%-1,2%

1,2%1,2% 1,0%

1,4%1,7% 1,2%

0,9%1,1%

2,8%2,3% 2,8%

0,4% 0,3% 0,2%

-0,3%0,3%

0,8%0,3%

ITALYHighlights

Third quarter's growth is steady (thanks to positive sales figures), boosted by one of the hottest and driest summer of the past decades.

Among FMCG products, food takes it all (interest and budgets): millennials and wealthy families are the trendsetters for health & wellness products, as well as for products with more side services (e.g. ready-to-eat).

As an answer to these emerging needs, retailers are innovating their assortments, encouraging cross-sales.

Prices have little impact on the overall performance.

This is the best third quarter in last 4 years and registered nominal growth at 3.1%.

Instead of upward price trend, volume sales responds positively and grown by 2.6%

Context

ITALYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,5% 1,7%

-0,6% -0,9%

0,9%1,1% 0,4%

2,1%1,4%

3,1%2,6%

-0,6% -0,2%

0,0%0,6%

1,1% 0,3%

-0,3% -0,9%-1,0%

-0,5% 0,7%

-1,2% -1,2%

UKHighlights

Economic growth is slowing and whilst Consumer confidence is still high, the confidence index has fallen from 106 (Q3 2016) to 99 (Q2 2017).However CPG sales remain buoyant with Nominal Sales increasing by +1.3%.

`Switching to cheaper grocery brands` is once again the most popular tactic for saving money* (30%) ahead of saving on utility bills (27%) and spending less on new clothes (25%) *Nielsen Consumer Confidence Q2.

The supply chain has taken a long time to pass on cost price increases and some of the inflation has been held back by retailers. Even so, shoppers continued to trade up in Q3 in particular buying more fresh foods and premium private label, which is also contributing to unit value growths.

12 months on from the c. 15% depreciation of Sterling (post Brexit Vote) inflation in the economy is now peaking at +3% and unit value change in CPG is stabilising at +3.5%.

However, in Q3 volume sales at Supermarkets weakened to -2.2% as shoppers continue to spend more of their weekly shops at Discounters; general merchandise sales in store are in decline as shoppers` shift to online; and `shrinkflation` reduces the pack sizes of many CPG brands and some private label ( i.e. less product content as a way of keeping price points for shoppers the same).

As we head towards the end of the year, there will also be more promotional savings for shoppers, which will help offset some of the inflation we have seen in Q3.

*Nielsen Consumer Confidence Q2

Context

UKFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,3%-0,3% -1,4%

-0,4% -0,5%-0,6%

-1,1%-0,5% 0,0%

0,1% -0,9%-2,2%-0,2%

0,7%0,2%

-0,7%-0,4% 0,2%

0,1%0,1%

-0,5%-0,2%

3,8% 3,5%

-0,5% -0,3%

-0,3% -0,2%

-0,8%-0,3% -0,5%

SPAINHighlights

Spanish economy continues showing a solid performance : GDP 3,1 % growth in the third quarter, similar to last quarter. Long term revision due to political instability in Catalonia.

Unemployment rate is still high (above 16 %) even if is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Consumers make a good balance between innovations and premium quality products, on one side, and appetite for promotions and value offers.

Q3 2017 was also a very positive period for FMCG market in Spain supported by solid volume performance and also by a sudden and strong price increase (olive oil, canned fish, coffee, rice and legumes).

Summer favorable weather conditions continued encouraging Water, Juices, Beers and other cold drinks.

RTE dishes continue being the most positive performance category. Cold soups (like “gazpacho”) strong growth .

Context

SPAINFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

2,8%2,7% 2,1%

1,0% 0,2%1,1%

2,2%1,7%

3,5%3,9%

2,2% 2,7% 2,5%

0,3% 0,7%

-1,4% -1,1%0,7%

1,2% 1,4%

0,0%0,2%

3,1%3,4%

3,0%2,7%

3,6% 3,6%

PORTUGALHighlights

With more confidence, Portuguese consumers are showing increasing interest in premium products, valuing quality and experience even at higher prices.

The price promotions continue achieving more than 40% of sales in value, although with shorter discounts.

The inflation trend remains as in the last quarter with a price effect of 2.8p, the highest since 2012.

The prices’ increase of categories with greater weight in the summer (like beverages or frozen food) can also influence this inflation.

Some categories that in the last year were in a “price war”, have now stabilized their prices.

Nominal Sales increased in Portugal by 3% in the third quarter of 2017. In this period, Sales in volume grew by 0.2%.

In this quarter, Nominal sales growth was mainly supported by the inflation. Portugal presents a positive price effect of 2.8pp.

Context

PORTUGALFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-1,5% -1,4%-0,1%

1,2%2,7%

0,2%-0,3% -0,1%

-0,9%-0,4%

0,5%-0,4% -0,6%

-1,3% -1,8%

0,5% 0,6%

2,8%1,4%

-2,4%-1,8%

NETHERLANDSHighlights

Inflation is slightly up again to a YTD average of 1.4%. This is still higher than the low level in 2016 of only 0.3%

The unemployment rate keeps gradually declining from 6.6% in Q1 to 5.7% in Q3

The market share of discounters is stable in recent periods (no more growth since end of last year)

Private label keeps gaining market share

Promotional pressure has dropped in recent months

"Price" is the driver of the value growth in NL. Average price level is especially up in Tobacco and Fresh categories (in particular milk and fish)

Context

NETHERLANDSFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,5% -0,9% -0,5% -0,6% -0,2%-0,1% 0,0% 0,2% -0,6% -1,0% -1,0%

-1,9%0,2%

1,2%1,8% 2,3%

1,7% 2,1%2,0%

0,8% 0,9%

1,1% 1,3%1,9%

2,0%1,9%

1,7%2,7% 3,0%1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,2%

1,4%1,7%

0,7% 0,9%

0,7% 0,9% 1,0%

AUSTRIAHighlights

Average temperatures during summer season were higher in comparison to last year’s, leading to a growth in volume especially in temperature driven categories as beverages.

The economic upswing in Austria is ongoing, the unemployment rate shows a higher decrease than the EU average and also consumer confidence is at the highest level since three years.

The successful reopening of former Zielpunkt stores (insolvency in the end of 2015) as well as other new store openings in 2017 further contribute to the total market value and volume growth and will continuously have a positive impact throughout the year.

Hard discounters continue to show strong growth and accelerate the total market growth notably since they account for about 25% of the grocery market in Austria.

Organic, overall fresh products and premiumization still remain key drivers on total sales growth and contribute significantly among various categories.

The strong growth also remains present in Q3/2017 even if it does not reach the significant growth of Q2/2017 (easter shift in 2017):Nominal sales increased by +3,4% in Q3/2017 equally due to volume and unit value growth. Root causes are expansion, macro economics and an ongoing strong performance of the discounters in Austria.

For the upcoming quarter we expect the market to continue growing, but on a lower level as the expansion of former Zielpunkt stores took place in Q4/2016 and will show a reduced effect when compared to Q4/2017.

Context

AUSTRIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,3% 0,6%3,0%

-0,3%0,2%

-0,9% -0,6%

2,6%1,7%

2,5% 2,3% 2,5% 2,5%

1,8% 1,3%

0,8%1,3%

1,2% 1,0%

2,0%2,8%

2,9% 2,7%

-0,1%0,7%

3,8%2,8%

** Data has been restated from Q1 2015Only Grocery retail from Q1 14-Q4 15, for all other periods Grocery and Drug retail

BELGIUMHighlights

Economy continues with stable performance: The GDP increased by +1.2% in volume over 2016

The employment situation is also getting better : Unemployment rate was of 7.9% in 2016 (versus 8.6% in 2015)

Price dynamics have been driven by an inflation : The inflation was of 1.97% in 2016 (versus 0.6% in 2015)

In Q3, Unit Value growth drives the overall growth which is at 0.4%.

Context

BELGIUMFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,2%-0,6% -0,2%

-0,1%0,2%

-1,7%-2,9%

-0,8% -1,1%-0,9%

1,3% 1,4%0,4%

1,5% 2,3%

3,4%2,9%

2,3% 1,7%0,9%

1,2%1,2% 1,1% 1,1%0,8%

1,7% 1,5% 1,7%

0,6%0,0%

POLANDHighlights

From the macroeconomic perspective general market situation in Poland remains positive. At the end of Q2’17 GDP has been higher than year ago, whereas the unemployment rate reached its lowest level within last 20 years. Inflation rate in Q3’17 matched to 1,9% –which is still within the inflation target and positive sign for trade sector.

Referring to FMCG Growth Reporter in Q3’17, Sales value change has been driven both by increased level of average price and volume sales.

In Q3’17 the Nominal growth of FMCG sales value is on its increasing path comparing to Q3’16 (+4,5%).

Volume sales was higher in Q3’17 than in the same period year ago. However, increased level of average price of FMCG productsstrongly impacted nominal growth (what may result from increasing prices of dairy products).

Context

POLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

3,1% 2,7%

1,8%2,8%

1,2%-0,2%

-0,1% -0,2%-1,1% -0,8%

-0,1%-0,1%

2,2%3,3%

4,4%4,0%

** Data has been restated since Q4 2015**Data from Q2 2015 with Discounters Premium Read (Biedronka scanning included)

NORWAYHighlights

The growth in GDP is gradually building as it increased by 0,7% in the second quarter of 2017 (numbers released in Q3)

In September the inflation rose by 1,6% compared to September last year. The price change on 0,11%in the grocery market is quite small in comparison, which is the outcome of competition especially between the discounters in Norway.

A decline in unemployment in Q3 by -0,7%p compared to Q3 last year, is still good news for Norway after a long lasting increase in unemployment that ended last summer.

The unit value change (price change) in Q3/17 at 0,1% is the lowest level since Q1/15

After a year of decreasing volume (every quarter from Q3 2016 has been negative) the volume was finally growing in Q3 2017 at a rate of 1,1 %.

Context

NORWAYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,7% 0,9%2,2%

2,6% 2,5%

1,2% 1,3%1,4%

0,0% -0,1% -0,7%-0,1% 1,1%

2,3%2,1%

2,0%2,1%

3,0%2,6%

3,0% 3,1%

3,6% 3,5%3,3%

2,0% 2,0%

0,9%1,2%

OTHER COUNTRIES

CZECH REPUBLICFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-1,5%-0,2%

1,2%1,0%

2,3% 3,0%2,3%

-0,7% 0,4%-0,9%

2,9% 2,6% 1,0% 0,7%

-0,3% -0,8%-1,1% -0,4%

4,7% 6,1%

2,4% 2,2%1,7%

1,5%1,9% 1,9%

5,2% 5,2%

** Data has been restated from Q3 2015

DENMARKFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,7% 0,0%

1,0%0,3%

0,1% 0,0% 0,4%

-0,9% -1,3% -1,6%

1,5%0,2%

0,1%-0,2% 0,8%

-0,3%-1,5%

2,5%2,1%0,8%

1,6%1,4%

-0,4% -0,5%

FINLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,9%0,7%

-1,0%-1,9%

0,8%0,6%

1,8% 1,6%3,1%

-0,6% -1,2%

0,8%0,0%

-1,1% -1,5%

0,7% -0,5% -0,4%

1,6% 1,8%

-0,4%0,0%

-1,9%-1,2%

0,3% 0,2%

1,0% 0,9% 1,1% 1,1%

2,1% 1,9%

GREECEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

3,1%-0,6% -0,6% -0,8%

-1,7%-1,5%

0,9% 3,4%

5,4%4,5%

2,5%-0,3%

-0,6% -0,4% -0,8%-0,9%

0,2% 0,4% -3,1%-0,5% 2,5% -2,3%

-12,2% -15,3%-8,7%

2,3%5,8%

-0,4% -0,2%

-3,9%-2,2%

-1,4%0,8%

-10,7%

Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth

HUNGARYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,6%1,1%

2,5%3,2%

1,9% 1,6%

1,2%3,8%

1,9%1,7%

0,8% 0,8%

4,9%4,4%

2,8%2,4%

IRELANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,7% 1,4% 2,3%

2,4%4,6%

1,1% 1,3%0,3%

1,5% 2,2%

0,3% 0,9%

-0,3% 0,8%

1,8% 0,4%

1,1% 1,3%1,2%

-0,6% -0,4%

2,0%2,3%

2,2%2,6%

1,5%2,1%

SLOVAKIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

3,4%3,1%

3,6% 3,5%

4,4%2,8%

0,3% -0,1%0,0%

-1,0%-0,7%

2,9% 2,7%

3,5% 3,5%

3,6%3,2%

SWEDENFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

1,4% 0,8%

0,1%1,0% 2,3% 0,4%

2,0%1,0% 1,3%

1,3% -0,4%

0,6%0,2% 1,9%

1,6% 1,5%

SWITZERLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-0,3%0,4% -0,1%

0,9%0,1%

0,8%0,3% 0,3%

0,8%0,2% 0,1%

-0,1% 0,3% 0,4%

-1,3% -1,6%

-1,2% -0,7%

0,3% 0,5%

-0,9% -0,7%

0,3% 0,2% 0,1%

-0,7%-0,9%

-0,7% -0,6%

TURKEYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

4,2%4,0%

7,9%5,0%

4,6% 2,6% 3,7% 4,5%6,1%

5,7% 5,8%4,9%

9,4% 6,3% 7,2%

9,7%9,5%

9,2%8,9%

8,3%6,9%

5,6% 4,6%

6,0%8,4% 10,0%

10,5%11,2%

10,9% 10,6% 10,1%10,6%

14,2%14,9%

Due to exclusion of Alcohol and Tobacco, history is updated from Q3 15From 2017; Turkey began to include "ŞOK" (one of three major hard discounters in Turkey) in FMCG Track data.

Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles

Categories covered in food and drug channels

Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Israel Latvia

Lithuania Macedonia Romania Russia Serbia Slovenia Ukraine

EXTENDED EUROPE

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA

1,6% 0,1%5,0% 3,0% 4,0% 3,0%

-8,4%-4,0%

0,0% -0,8% 1,1%5,4%

-2,9% -1,3%

-0,5% -0,7% -1,8%

-2,6% -3,5%

-1,4%-1,5%

-1,3% -1,1%

2,5% 3,3%1,2%

-10,1%

-1,4% -2,2%

2015 2016 MAT TY Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16

Dec-Apr17

Apr-Aug17

Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

BULGARIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

2,4%0,8% 1,3%

-0,6%0,7%

0,7% 1,1%

2,7%3,1%

4,0% 5,0%

1,8% 1,7%

1,7%1,8%

1,4%0,8%

2,3%3,1%

2,0%2,6%

2,5%2,0%

4,2% 3,9%

2015 2016 MAT TY Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17

CROATIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

2,3%2,3%

0,5% 0,1%

1,8%3,2%

1,7%0,9% -1,2%

0,4%-0,2%

1,7%-0,1%

-2,4%-3,5%

0,5%0,1%

-1,1%0,2% 2,4%

2,6%2,1%

-3,9% -3,9%

0,6%1,1% 1,2%

2015 2016 MAT TY Apr -Aug13

Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr -Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr -Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr -Aug16

Aug-Dec16

Dec-Apr17

Apr -Aug17

ESTONIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,7%-1,0% -3,1%

0,4%1,1%

0,7% 0,1%0,1%

-1,5% -2,4% -1,5% -3,3% -3,6%-5,2%

0,5% 2,7%

6,3%2,5%

1,9% 1,0% 1,2%0,2%

3,6%4,3%

5,8% 6,6%8,4%

1,2%1,8%

2,3% 2,0% 1,9%

0,3% 0,7%

0,8% 1,2%

2,8% 2,5%3,1% 3,2%

0,4%-1,9%

0,5% 0,6%-1,7%

1,8%0,6%

-0,8%1,6% -1,0%

-1,1% -1,0%-0,9%

-1,1%1,8%

0,5%-0,5%

1,5% -0,2% 0,2%-0,7%

0,4%-0,5%

0,7%1,4%

2015 2016 MAT TY Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17

ISRAELFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

KAZAKHSTANFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-13,0% -12,0% -7,2%-5,9% -4,2% 2,0%

6,3%4,1%

-0,4% -2,0% -3,0% -4,3%

3,3% 2,6% 5,3%8,1%

12,8% 9,5%7,3%

-9,7% -9,3%

24,3%22,5%

2014 2015 2016 JJ-JA2015

AS-SO2015

ON-ND2015

DJ-JF2016

FM-MA2016

AM-MJ2016

JJ-JA2016

AS-SO2016

ON-ND2016

DJ-JF2017

FM-MA2017

AM-MJ2017

LATVIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,0% -0,3%

1,1% 1,3%

0,1% 0,2% -0,1% -0,4% -1,1% 0,2%-0,6%

4,7%1,9%

0,9% -0,4%-0,6%

-1,1% 0,0%0,9% 1,8%

2,3% 3,1%

5,2% 5,2%4,9%

0,5%0,2% 0,2%

1,9%2,2%

LITHUANIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-3,4% -6,1%

1,7% 2,6%

-1,0%-0,9%

0,4% -0,2%

-7,3% -6,1% -8,9%-6,4%

-4,0%1,7% 2,8%

6,4% 2,2%1,7%

1,9% 1,9% 1,4%1,9%

2,8%3,5%

5,5%9,3% 8,8%

-0,5%0,3%

3,9% 4,4%

0,9% 1,0%1,8% 1,7%

-3,8%-3,1% -3,4%

Historical data has been changed as there is a change in Total Country selection from 2014 onwards

MONTENEGROFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,4%2,2%

-34,4%-30,6%

-16,8%-13,9% -11,1%

-6,1% -0,3%2,9% 3,4%

-3,5% 2,5%9,2%

0,9% 3,2%3,6% 0,9% 2,5% 1,5% 1,2%

0,3% -0,4%-0,1% 2,3%

-5,5%-3,1%

-30,8% -29,7%

-14,3%-12,5%

-9,9%-5,8%

-0,7%2,7%

0,7%4,3%

2015 2016 MAT TY Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16

Dec-Apr17

Apr-Aug17

11,2%15,6% 13,2%

10,9% 8,4%

5,3%4,7%

-2,5% -2,1%

-6,4% -7,1%

0,3%1,1% 1,7%

9,2%7,2%

8,5% 9,1%11,2%

8,6%6,4% 6,5% 7,2%

2015 2016 MAT TY Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17

ROMANIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

Reworked data with all the major RMS categories includedexcept for: Cigarettes, Make-up & Incontinence, reduction of VAT from 24% to 9% for food categories. New chains integration.

RUSSIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-2,0% -0,7% -1,2% -0,5% 0,1%-0,5%

-2,2%-2,4% 0,1% 0,5%

7,2%7,5%

6,9% 5,8%3,3%

6,8%7,9%

4,8%3,4% 3,5%

2015 2016 MAT TY Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17

SERBIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

0,5% -0,3% -1,6%

-10,2% -10,6%

1,4% -0,4%2,3%

-0,1% 0,6%-1,2% -2,0% -2,0%

0,9%4,0%

6,0%4,3%

2,3% 1,4% -1,7% 0,9%

4,6%3,7%

3,6%3,4% 3,9%1,3%

0,0% -0,4%0,4%

3,9% 4,4% 4,2%

2,4%1,3%

SLOVENIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-1,2% -1,0% -2,1%

1,0% 1,6% 1,2%0,0%

-0,2% 1,5%

0,1% 0,6%

-0,9% -1,4%

-2,0% -2,0%-2,4% -2,5%

-0,1%-0,4%

2014 2015 2016 MAT TY Aug-Dec13

Dec-Apr14

Apr-Aug14

Aug-Dec14

Dec-Apr15

Apr-Aug15

Aug-Dec15

Dec-Apr16

Apr-Aug16

Aug-Dec16

Dec-Apr17

Apr-Aug17

UKRAINEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

-7,3% -1,9%-0,7%

-9,2% -7,4%-0,7%

3,1%-0,4%

-0,4% 2,9% 5,6%

35,6%27,8%

12,9%9,8%

8,9%9,8%

10,1% 9,8%

12,2% 12,9%

8,5% 9,5%13,0%

2015 2016 MAT TY Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17

APPENDIX

APPENDIX: GLOSSARY• Nominal value growth:

• Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories

• Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change): • Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories

• The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc)

• The change in average price per unit may result from:

• Price changes of individual products

• Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc.

• Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.

• Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics.

• The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery shopping behavior.

• Volume growth:

• Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products

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