Post on 17-Jan-2016
description
Growth accountingGrowth accountingRecall:Recall:
YYtt = A = Att K Ktt L Ltt (1-(1-))
Take logs:Take logs:
log Ylog Ytt = log A = log Att + + log K log Ktt + (1- + (1-) log ) log LLtt
Also true for t-1:Also true for t-1:
log Ylog Yt-1t-1 = log A = log At-1t-1 + + log K log Kt-1t-1 + (1- + (1-) log L) log Lt-1t-1
Growth accountingGrowth accounting (log Y(log Yt t - log Y- log Yt-1t-1) ) = (log A= (log Att - log A - log At-1t-1) )
+ + (log K (log Ktt -log K -log Kt-1t-1) ) + (1-+ (1-)(log L)(log Ltt - log L - log Lt-1t-1))
%% Y Ytt = % = % A Att + + % % K Ktt + (1- + (1-)%)% L Ltt
Rearrange to get:Rearrange to get:%% A Att = % = % Y Ytt - - % % K Ktt - (1- - (1-)%)% L Ltt
Growth accountingGrowth accounting
We have data on Y, K and LWe have data on Y, K and L
(1-(1-= labour’s share of income= labour’s share of income
= wL/Y= wL/Y
0.6 (on average)0.6 (on average)
Thus Thus 0.4 0.4
A is the “Solow” residualA is the “Solow” residual
Labour inputLabour input
Labour input measured by total Labour input measured by total hours worked (L)hours worked (L)
L = average workweek L = average workweek employmentemployment
Ireland, Hours worked per employee in the business sector
Source: EcoWin
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
N/A
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
Basic growth accountingBasic growth accounting
YY Y*Y* KK Labor inputLabor input Labor input*Labor input* TFTFPP
TFP*TFP*
WWWW EmplEmpl..
WWWW Empl.Empl.
19601960-73-73
4.34.3 4.64.6 0.70.7 -0.5-0.5 0.10.1 -0.5-0.5 -0.2-0.2 4.34.3 4.84.8
19731973-95-95
4.14.1 4.64.6 2.72.7 -0.6-0.6 0.80.8 -0.6-0.6 0.80.8 3.23.2 3.73.7
19731973-80-80
4.64.6 4.64.6 3.03.0 -1.1-1.1 1.11.1 -1.1-1.1 0.70.7 3.63.6 4.04.0
19801980-95-95
3.93.9 4.64.6 2.52.5 -0.4-0.4 0.70.7 -0.4-0.4 0.80.8 3.03.0 3.63.6
19951995-00-00
9.49.4 10.210.2 4.94.9 -1.6-1.6 5.65.6 -1.6-1.6 6.16.1 5.25.2 5.65.6
* Business sector
Main points:Main points:
Ireland’s TFP growth slowed between Ireland’s TFP growth slowed between 1973-1995, but picked up post-19951973-1995, but picked up post-1995
Investment also picked up post-1995Investment also picked up post-1995 Especially impressive boom in Especially impressive boom in
employmentemployment Probably even bigger contribution Probably even bigger contribution
from labour input if labour quality from labour input if labour quality adjusted.adjusted.
Labour demandLabour demand Competitive wages (w/A) Competitive wages (w/A) Foreign multinationals using Ireland as Foreign multinationals using Ireland as
an export platforman export platform EU internal marketEU internal market Low corporation taxLow corporation tax Highly educated, English-speaking Highly educated, English-speaking
workforceworkforce Flexible labour marketsFlexible labour markets IDA policy; agglomeration effectsIDA policy; agglomeration effects
Expanding services sectorsExpanding services sectors Boom in construction industryBoom in construction industry
Labour supplyLabour supply
Natural demographic effectsNatural demographic effects Figures 1, 2 & 3 in Fitz Gerald (2004)Figures 1, 2 & 3 in Fitz Gerald (2004) Low dependency ratioLow dependency ratio Total fertility rate = 2! (EU average = Total fertility rate = 2! (EU average =
1.5)1.5) Participation ratesParticipation rates MigrationMigration
Ireland, Labour force participation rate
Source: EcoWin
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
N/A
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
Labour supplyLabour supply
National Competitiveness Council, National Competitiveness Council, Annual Competitiveness Report 2005Annual Competitiveness Report 2005
http://www.forfas.ie/ncc/reports/ncc_http://www.forfas.ie/ncc/reports/ncc_annual_05/ch03/ch03_01.htmlannual_05/ch03/ch03_01.html
Central Statistic OfficeCentral Statistic Office http://http://www.cso.iewww.cso.ie
Wedge accountingWedge accounting
Ahearne, Kydland, Wynne, (2005) Ahearne, Kydland, Wynne, (2005) “Ireland’s Great Depression” “Ireland’s Great Depression”
Ireland experienced a great Ireland experienced a great depression in the 1980sdepression in the 1980s
Study the contribution of different Study the contribution of different wedges to the downturn and wedges to the downturn and subsequent recoverysubsequent recovery
Model economyModel economy
Computer model of the Irish economyComputer model of the Irish economy Explicitly model behaviour of agentsExplicitly model behaviour of agents Households make choices about how Households make choices about how
much to consume/save and how much much to consume/save and how much to workto work
Firms maximize profitsFirms maximize profits Agents are forward lookingAgents are forward looking
““Wedge” accountingWedge” accounting
Basic idea:Basic idea: Examine movements in wedges or Examine movements in wedges or
distortions to account for cyclical distortions to account for cyclical episodesepisodes
Applications:Applications: Accounting for the (US) Great Accounting for the (US) Great
DepressionDepression Accounting for 1990-91 (US) recessionAccounting for 1990-91 (US) recession
DefinitionsDefinitions
Efficiency wedgeEfficiency wedge Essentially TFPEssentially TFP
Labor wedgeLabor wedge Distorts (intratemporal) labor-Distorts (intratemporal) labor-
consumption decisionconsumption decision Investment wedgeInvestment wedge
Distorts (intertemporal) investment Distorts (intertemporal) investment decisiondecision
Government consumption wedgeGovernment consumption wedge
Efficiency wedge
A
B
Nonmarket activity
Consumption
Labor wedge
A
B
Nonmarket activity
Consumption
Capital wedge
A
B
Current Consumption
FutureConsumption
Government consumption wedge
• Unproductive government spending
• Resource constraint
Yt =Ct + It + Gt + Xt - Mt
ResultsResults
Efficiency wedge by itself does a good Efficiency wedge by itself does a good job accounting for downturn and job accounting for downturn and recovery, though predicts an earlier recovery, though predicts an earlier recoveryrecovery
Labour wedge predicts an even more Labour wedge predicts an even more severe downturn, but no recoverysevere downturn, but no recovery
Investment and government wedges Investment and government wedges cannot account for downturn and cannot account for downturn and recoveryrecovery
Convergence or Regional Convergence or Regional Boom?Boom?
Barry (2002)Barry (2002) Rapid growth in 1990s was a regional Rapid growth in 1990s was a regional
boom boom Region Region very open labour markets very open labour markets If good shock hits region If good shock hits region boom boom
Ireland’s case: FDIIreland’s case: FDI Bad shocks can lead to a reversal! Bad shocks can lead to a reversal!