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Growing Prosperity in AustinFebruary 2014
202/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
• Austin owned the ten-year period 2003-2013 compared to other US metropolitan areas
• Success can breed complacency—need renewed sense of urgency about underlying challenges to Austin’s future prosperity
• Time for big ideas is now
Summary
302/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
US (MSA)
Austin MSA
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) real GDP grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B).
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars).
GDP Growth (Annual)
402/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Job Growth (Annual)
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Texas
US
Austin MSA
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large metros (500,000+ pop) between 2001 and 2012.
502/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Net Migration (2010)
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map created by Forbes.
Travis County gained (net) average of 8,820 people and $321 million in household income per year from other states between 2006 and 2010.
January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in AustinSource: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.
702/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
78701 Pop (2010): 6,841
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
802/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Net Migration, Diff State
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000 CA 35%LA 23%
FL 5%CA 24%FL 10%
IL 7%CA 15%IL 7%FL 6%
CA 42%
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10).
Travis County
902/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Pre-Recession Leaders (2007)
York, SCWilliamson, TX
Fulton, GACollin, TXTravis, TXHarris, TXKing, WA
Gwinnett, GAOrleans, LA
Bexar, TXTarrant, TX
Mecklenburg, NCWake, NCClark, NV
Maricopa, AZ
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
7,573
9,840
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
Net migration from different state
1002/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Post-Recession Leaders (2010)
Williamson, TXDenver, COOrleans, LA
Wake, NCPinal, AZ
Travis, TXFairfax, VAFulton, GATarrant, TX
Dallas, TXEl Paso, CO
Bexar, TXHarris, TX
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
3,943
7,030
Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).
Net migration from different state
1102/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Popular Neighborhoods
1. Steiner Ranch2. Milwood/Arrowwood3. North Burnet/Domain4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake5. Canyon Creek6. Hyde Park
7. North Loop8. Onion Creek9. Barton Creek/Hills10. Old West Austin11. Northwest Hills12. Preston Oaks
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011.
1202/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Cost of Living (Housing - Sale)
Durham
Nashville
Raleigh
Portland
Denver
Seattle
Los Angeles
New York
Washington DC
Boston
San Francisco
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800
Median list price per sq ft
Austin$153
Downtown Austin $427
Source: Zillow.com, December 2013.
Austin’s most expensive neighborhood is cheaper than median prices in SF, Boston, DC, and NYC.
1302/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Raleigh
Durham
Nashville
Portland
Denver
Los Angeles
Seattle
Washington DC
Boston
San Francisco
New York
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50
Austin$1.22
Downtown Austin $2.40
Median list price per sq ft
Cost of Living (Housing - Rent)
Source: Zillow.com, December 2013.
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Opportunity Austin: Challenges
14
1502/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Williamson
Hays
Per Capita Income (US=100)
Income Stagnation
Travis
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
1602/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Asian
White
Black or African American
Hispanic or Latino
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
30%
45%
73%
80%
Education Inequality% Pop Age 25+ with No Completed Postsecondary Degree (MSA)
Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates. Living wage from CPPP http://familybudgets.org. Assumes employer-paid health care & no savings.
64% of job openings in 2013-23 paying a living wage for a family of one adult and one child ($17 per hour) will require a postsecondary degree.No children – 43%
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Affordability#affordATX
17
1802/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
• We have no idea how many people are being “pushed out” of Austin
• Separating true lack of affordability and consumer preference for type of housing is not a popular topic
• Need better understanding of the combined effect of housing and transportation costs
Research Questions
02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
Opportunity Austin: Big Ideas
19
2002/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
• Education—set goal of completed postsecondary degree for majority of working age population in MSA (54%/519K people age 25-64 had no postsecondary in 2009)
• Inclusion—use Dell Medical School opportunity to show how Austin’s innovation economy can produce broad-based wealth creation
Big Ideas
2102/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee
• Make Austin the first city in the US to eliminate working poverty
• Embrace work-readiness alongside college-readiness at all levels of secondary and postsecondary
• End veteran homelessness
Bigger Ideas
@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com
512-731-7851
brian@civicanalytics.com
Brian Kelsey, Principal