GRGAQS: Meteorological Modeling

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GRGAQS:Meteorological Modeling

Presentation to the

ENVIRON International Corporation

Alpine Geophysis, LLC

August 8, 2006

Today’s Presentation

• Further evaluation of MM5 performance

• Analyses conducted for August and November modeling episodes:– 4-km surface wind fields in Gorge area– Cloud cover and fog on 4-km grid

• Compare to satellite and Wishram camera

– Wind, temperature, RH at Wishram

Wind Performance, August 2004

• Hi bscat 8/10-8/16, 8/19

• Poor performance at central sites 8/10-8/13– Wind opposite direction

• Good performance 8/14-8/22– Maybe too light on some days

Wind Performance, November 2004

• Hi bscat 11/8-11/13• Overall better performance than for

August episode• Very good performance over 11/8-

11/13– Some stagnation leads to wind direction

errors– Some windy periods are too light

Cloud Cover

• August 2004 notes at Wishram camera:8/10 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/11 No clouds, No layered haze8/12 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/13 No clouds, No layered haze8/14 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/15 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/16 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/17 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/18 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/19 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/20 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/21 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/22 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze

Wishram Camera

August 13, noon Pristine

Wishram Camera

August 2004 Cloud Cover

• Performance appears adequate– MM5 cannot replicate high thin/wispy

cirrus– MM5 usually underperforms for scattered

small-scale afternoon cumulus– These should not play significant role in

regional PM chemistry

Cloud Cover

• November 2004 notes at Wishram camera:11/3 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/4 No clouds, Ground-based layered haze only11/5 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/6 Scattered clouds < half of sky, Ground-based layered haze only11/7 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/8 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/9 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/10 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/11 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/12 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/13 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/14 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (distant fog)11/15 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene11/16 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze11/17 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/18 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze

Wishram Camera

November 6, noon Pristine

Wishram Camera

November 2004 Cloud Cover

• Large-scale higher clouds appear well simulated

• Low-level cloud/fog events are not– Especially on the high bscat days

– This will impact aqueous PM chemistry

– This would impact bscat reconstruction

• If we use MM5-predicted humidity

• EPA method: use measured humidity

Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: August 10-22

8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22

Predicted Observed

Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: August 10-22

8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22

Predicted Observed

Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: August 10-22

8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22

Predicted Observed

Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: August 10-22

8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22

Predicted Observed

August 2004 Meteorology

• Wind speed/direction well simulated– Terrain channeling may be leading to

higher observed speeds and direction bias

• Temperatures on 4-km grid are highly suspect– RH performance follows poor

temperature performance– Need to investigate further

• Could use in some initial PM modeling

Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: November 3-18

11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

Predicted Observed

Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: November 3-18

11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

Predicted Observed

Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: November 3-18

11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

Predicted Observed

Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: November 3-18

11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

Predicted Observed

November 2004 Meteorology

• Wind speed/direction performance appears acceptable

• Temperature performance is poor– Need to investigate cause

• RH is too low – no fog – not associated with temperature problem

• This episode is currently not useable

GRGAQS: Meteorological Modeling

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