Post on 16-Oct-2021
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Global Trade of Wood Products
By Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE/FAO Timber SectionGeneva, Switzerland
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Subjects
I. Overview of developmentsII. Global forest products market
trends (for roundwood)III. Trade flow trendsIV. Flooring market trendsV. Market driversVI. Future prospectsVII. Questions and discussion
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Acknowledgements
• China National Forest Products Industry Association, especially– Mr. Zhang Senlin– Mr. Wu Shengfu
• Organizers and participants of this conference
• Reviewers in UNECE/FAO Timber Section, Geneva
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Main sources of informationW
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
• UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2007-2008
• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database• FAO Statistics• State of Europe’s Forests 2007
by Ministerial Conference for the Protection of Forests in Europe/UNECE/FAO
• State of the World’s Forests 2009, FAO
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
• UN Comtrade validated by European Forest Institute• US Foreign Agricultural Statistics• Chinese Customs• State Forestry Agency, China• International Wood Markets Group• European Federation of the Parquet Industry
Main sources of information, continued
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
I. Overview of developments
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Globalization of forest products trade
• Increasing affecting local economies, governments and organizations
• Positive for consumers• Negative for importing countries’
manufacturing
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Global, with emphasis on major trade
• North America (Canada and US)• Latin America (Central and South
America only)• Europe• CIS (mainly Russian Federation)• Asia (mainly China)
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
UN Economic Commission for Europe region
Europe 42North America 2Commonwealth of Independent States, 12
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
II. Global forest products market trends
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006B
illio
n $
CIS North America Europe Asia Africa Latin America Oceania
Source: FAO, 2008.
+52%
$102billionEurope
Export Value of Wood and Paper Products Where do exports originate?
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Source: National Association of Homebuilders, 2009.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
1000
hou
ses
Single family Multiple family
N. America’s dramatic downturn – US housing starts
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Source: National Association of Homebuilders, 2009.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1000
hou
ses
Single family Multiple family
US housing starts
-33%
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US New Single Family Homes: Starts & Inventories
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Source:
USCB
SF M
onth
ly H
ousi
ng S
tarts
(Bar
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mon
ths
Supp
ly (L
ine)
SF Housing StartsSF Unsold New Homes
US housing starts & unsold new houses
Source: US Census Bureau, via International Wood Markets Group, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Housing Starts:North America vs. Europe
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*
Source:CMHC / NAHB /
Euroconstruct
(Mill
ions
of U
nits
)
Europe
NorthAmerica
Housing starts: N. America vs. Europe
Sources: Canadian MNC, N. American Homebuilders Assn., Euroconstruct, via International Wood Markets Group, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Non-wooden Post & beam Prefabricated 2 x 4
Japan’s housing starts
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation viaJapan Wood Products Information and Research Center, 2009
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Russian wood and paper exports
0102030405060708090
100
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Mill
ion
m3
Roundwood Sawnwood Market pulp Paper and paperboard
Roundwood exports falling with taxes, forest sector reorganization
Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER database, 2008.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Import Value of Wood and Paper Products
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Bill
ion
$
CIS North America Europe Asia Africa Latin America OceaniaSource: FAOStat, 2008.
Where are importers?
China importsroundwoodand waste paper
Europe includes intra-regional trade
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Trade Value Development by Major Region
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
North America 1996
2006
Europe 19962006
Asia 19962006
Latin America 1996
2006
CIS 19962006
Bill
ion
$
Exports Imports Source: FAOStat, 2008.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s Wood and Paper Products Exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Bill
ion
$
Source: International WOOD MARKETS Group, based on Chinese Customs, 2008.
Skyrocketing trend slowed in 2008in volume, but increased 6% in valuedue in part to RMB appreciation
Note: Includes sawnwood, panels, paper.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s Wood and Non-Wood Furniture Exports
Source: IBISWorld, 2008, and Tan, X. et al., 2007.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
*
$ bi
llion
Total furniture Wooden furniture* 2008 estimated
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s Forest Products Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007M
illio
n m
3 or
m.t
Paper and paperboard Sawnwood Wood-based panels
Sources: FAOSTAT, 2008 and Tan, X. et al., 2007.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
$5,653$3,157
$552
$237
$187
$147
$252
Source: FAO, 2008.
BrazilChile
ArgentinaUruguay
ColumbiaPeru
OtherS. American
forest products exports, 2006,
$ million
Brazil
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
III. Trade flow trends
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Industrial Roundwood Trade Flows
05
1015202530354045
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006M
illio
n m3
Europe to Europe CIS to EuropeCIS to Asia Oceania to AsiaAsia to Asia Latin America to Europe
Source: UN Comtrade, FAO, 2008.
+300%
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Industrial Roundwood Trade Flows
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006In
dex
(199
6=10
0)
Europe to Europe CIS to Europe CIS to AsiaOceania to Asia Asia to Asia Latin America to Europe
Source: UN Comtrade, FAO, 2008.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Global industrial roundwood vs. fuelwood
• Over half used as fuel– Domestic heating– Cooking
• Mostly in developing countries• Low value• Modern wood energy
– Small international trade– Growing market– Policy push in Europe
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
IV. Flooring market trends
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Factors affecting demand and trade• Economic conditions,
mortgage (home loan) rates• Housing starts• Remodelling• Demand for wood flooring
vs. other flooring options
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China's engineered flooring exports, value
Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
$ m
illio
n
US Japan Taiwan PoC Korea Rep Hong KongIsrael Spain UK Canada Other
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China's engineered flooring exports, volume
* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
1000
m2
US Japan Taiwan PoC Korea Rep. Hong KongIsrael Spain UK Canada Other
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s laminated flooring exports, value
050
100150200250300350400450
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
$ m
illio
n
US Korea Rep. Russia Canada TurkeyUkraine India Thailand S. Africa Other
* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.
Could shipments toCanadian ports bedestined for US?
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s laminated flooring exports, volume
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
1000
m3
US Korea Rep. Russia Canada TurkeyUkraine India Thailand S. Africa Other
Converted from ton to m3 by 750kg/m3.Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.
* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s solid wood flooring exports, value
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
$ m
illio
nOtherHong KongKorea Rep.JapanUKCanadaUS
Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.
* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.
Could shipments toCanadian ports bedestined for US?
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s solid wood flooring exports, volume
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
1000
tons
US Canada UK Japan Korea Rep. Hong Kong Other
Source: Chinese Customs, 2009.* Note: 2008 data is January to November, only 11 months.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
China’s wood flooring production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
m2
Laminated Engineered Solid BambooSource: State Forestry Administration, China, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Exporters of wood flooring and shaped wood
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
$ m
illio
n
Africa China & Hong KongAsia CISEurope North AmericaSouth and Central America Other
Source: UN Comtrade, 2009.Note: Includes much more than flooring.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Importers of wood flooring and shaped wood
020406080
100120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
$ m
illio
n
Africa China & Hong KongAsia CISEurope North AmericaSouth and Central America Other
Note: Includes much more than flooring. Source: UN Comtrade, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
m2
Source: FEP, 2009.
European parquet production and consumption
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
European parquet consumption per capita
Source: FEP, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Mosaic3%
Multilayer76%
Lamparquet2%
Solid19%
Total parquet production per typePercentages for 2007
European parquet production, 2007
Source: FEP, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
European species used, 2007
Source: FEP, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
overall construction industry
new
renovation
residential
non-residential
civil engineering
new residential
residential renovation
new non-residential
non-residential renovation
new civil engineering
civil engineering renovation
European construction sectors’ growth rates, 2007
Source: Euroconstruct, reported by FEP, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
European construction market shares, 2007 civil
engineering renovation
7,2%
new residential 24,5%
residential renovation
22,8%new non-residential
18,7%
non-residential renovation
13,0%
new civil engineering
13,8%
Source: Euroconstruct, reported by FEP, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
US exports to Canada and Mexico
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ m
illio
n
US hardwood flooring exports to Canada and Mexico, value
Some shipments to Canadamay be re-shipped out of North America
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ m
illion
OceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaN. AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. AmericaCaribbean
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
US hardwood flooring exports to non-North America, value
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US softwood flooring exports, value
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ 10
00
OceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaN. AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. AmericaCaribbeanN. America
Note softwood flooringexports to N. America may include re-export
Note softwood flooring1000 times less thanhardwood
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ m
illio
n
Oceania
SE Asia
S. Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
N. Africa
Middle East
E. Asia
CIS
Other Europe
EU-27
S. America
C. America
Caribbean
US hardwood flooring imports, value
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US softwood flooring imports, value
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ m
illio
nOceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. AmericaN. America
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US hardwood flooring exports to Canada and Mexico, volume
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1000
m2
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1000
m2
Oceania
SE Asia
S. Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
N. Africa
Middle East
E. Asia
CIS
Other Europe
EU-27
S. America
C. America
Caribbean
US hardwood flooring exports to non-North America, volume
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US softwood flooring exports, volume
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1000
m2
Oceania
SE Asia
S. Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
N. Africa
Middle East
E. Asia
CIS
Other Europe
EU-27
S. America
C. America
Caribbean
N. America
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US hardwood flooring imports from Canada and Mexico, volume
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1000
m2
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US hardwood flooring imports from non-North American countries, volume
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1000
m2
OceaniaSE AsiaS. AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaN. AfricaMiddle EastE. AsiaCISOther EuropeEU-27S. AmericaC. America
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
US softwood flooring imports, volume
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1000
m2
Oceania
SE Asia
S. Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East
E. Asia
CIS
Other Europe
EU-27
S. America
C. America
N. America
Source: USDA FAS, 2009.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Russian flooring market• Parquet demand forecast to increase 84% by 2010• From 5.7 million m2 in 2007• To 10.5 million m2 in 2010• Market shares in 2007
– Tarkett (Germany) 17%– Grabo 7%– Woodpecker 7%
Source: Delovoi Petersburg, September 2008, as reported by Maskayu, of the Malaysian Timber Industry Board, September 2008.
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
IV. Market drivers
• Socio-economic factors• Currency rate variations• Green building programs• Public procurement• Social responsibility• Environmental consciousness• Climate change• Deforestation and afforestation• Alternative demands on forests
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
V. Future prospects
• Increased environmental consideration• Wood-based energy• Promotion of wood and paper products as
sustainable, recyclable materials• Continued long-term growth of forest products
markets
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
V. Future prospects (continued)
• CE marking for European Union flooring– March 2010– Certifies that product has met EU consumer
safety, health and environmental requirements
– Attention producers in EU and exporters to the EU!
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
V. Future prospects (continued)
• Laws, duties, tariffs, taxes, regulations
• Raw material costs
• Labour costs & benefits
• Manufacturing costs
• Goal: Raise standard of living and domestic consumption of wood products
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
V. Future prospects
• Greater harvests• Economic and trade recovery• Alternative demands on forestlands• Competition based on marketable attributes other than
price, for example corporate responsibility for– Social aspects– Environmental aspects, including certification of
sustainable supply sources• More research and development
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
VI. Discussion &
questions
International Flooring Conference26 March 2009, Changzhou, China
Ed PepkeForest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE/FAO Timber Section448 Palais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, SwitzerlandTel. +41 22 917 2872Fax +41 22 917 0041www.unece.org/timberEd.Pepke@unece.org