Post on 30-Dec-2015
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GLOBAL WARMING
What are the Facts and Impacts
on Energy Policy Issues?
GLOBAL WARMING
What are the Facts and Impacts
on Energy Policy Issues?
Sallie Baliunas
Harvard University and the George C. Marshall Institute
The scientific facts do not support drastic CO2 emission cuts.
The Kyoto Agreement would fail to stop model-forecast global warming.
CONSEQUENCESFROM SCIENCE
CONSEQUENCESFROM SCIENCE
20TH C SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS NOT CLOSELY LINKED TO THE AIR’S
CONTENT OF HUMAN-MADE GREENHOUSE GASES
20TH C SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS NOT CLOSELY LINKED TO THE AIR’S
CONTENT OF HUMAN-MADE GREENHOUSE GASES
Thermometer measurements, available only for approximately 20% of the globe, analyzed by East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(GISS). The air’s Co2 content rose rapidly after the 1950s, and that rise does not readily explain the early 20th c warming and mid-century cooling trends.
NO GLOBAL WARMING IN CRITICAL AIR LAYER: LOWER TROPOSPHERE
NO GLOBAL WARMING IN CRITICAL AIR LAYER: LOWER TROPOSPHERE
Satellite measurements of the lower troposphere (approximately 1-5 miles altitude) show no meaningful human-made global warming trend, in contradiction to the models. Data are from J. Christy, NASA-MSFC
Alaskan temperatures have tended to warm during the positive phases of the PDO (1923-1946 and 1976 - 1998) Data are from S. Hare and N. Mantua http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATIONPACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
ALASKA TEMPERATURES SHOW PDO AND NOT HUMAN-CAUSED WARMINGALASKA TEMPERATURES SHOW PDO AND NOT HUMAN-CAUSED WARMING
Composite temperatures from best records: Fairbanks, Anchorage, Nome and Barrow. Since 1978 (after the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976-1977, caused by the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, or PDO) the average temperature has dropped nearly 1F. Source: Willie Soon
A NATURAL CAUSE FOR RECENT SURFACE WARMING?
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE
A NATURAL CAUSE FOR RECENT SURFACE WARMING?
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE
Left – Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere surface temperature; see S. Baliunas and W. Soon 1995. Right – NASA Image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite.
A SUN – CLIMATE LINK?NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE
AND SOLAR CYCLE
A SUN – CLIMATE LINK?NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE
AND SOLAR CYCLE
Left – Changes in the sun’s output are strongly correlated with terrestrial temperatures where records are available. Data are from S. Baliunas and W. Soon 1995.
Right – YOKOH satellite image of one million C plasma in the sun’s outer atmosphere. The plasma is shaped and heated by magnetic fields.
U.S. ENERGY AND COAL USE DIMINISH UNDER KYOTO -- EIA FORECASTS FOR 2010
U.S. ENERGY AND COAL USE DIMINISH UNDER KYOTO -- EIA FORECASTS FOR 2010
EIA(1998) Impacts of the kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity
Total Consumption
Petroleum Products
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear Power
Renewable Energy
KYOTO PROTOCOL WOULD AVERT ONLY 0.06 C OF GLOBAL WARMING BY 2050
KYOTO PROTOCOL WOULD AVERT ONLY 0.06 C OF GLOBAL WARMING BY 2050
Fully implementing the Kyoto Protocol would not produce a meaningful abatement of the projected warming trend. Equivalently, the forecast warming that would have developed by
2050 occurs by 2053. Model results are for the UKMO HadCM3 IS92a model.