Global Trendsin the

Livestock Sector

and

FAO Strategiesfor Livestock Development

Raffaele Mattioli, Funzionario in Sanità Animali, AGA

Shares of Population and GNP 1994

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

Population(billions)

GNP ($1,000billions)

Industrialcountries

Developingcountries

World Population Growthand Distribution (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960 1994 2015

Industrialcountries

Developingcountries

3 billions 5.6 billions 7.3 billions

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Cereals

Meat

Milk

Global Cereal, Meat and Milk Production 1980 - 1999 (1980 = 100%)

%

1980-------------------1990--------------------1999

Milk Demand in Developing Countries (million tons)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1990 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961 1990 2020

Monogastric Meat

Ruminant Meat

Million t

Meat Demand in Developing Countries

Relationship Between Meat Consumption and Income

0

1

2

3

4

5

4 5 6 7 8 9 11income/person (log scale)

meat cons.(logscale)

10

China

India

Trend

Annual Growth Rates of Different Production Systems in Developing

Countries

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Asia SSA WANA CSA

grazing systems

mixed systems

industrial systems

in terms of meat production

SSA:Sub-Saharan Africa

WANA:West Asia & North Africa

CSA:Central & South America

Industrial systems

Mixed systems

Grazing systems

Total cereal use as feedRegion 1983 1993

(million MT)China 40 84

India 2 3

World 592 636

Latin America 40 55

Sub-Saharan 2 3Africa

2020

178

14

92

5

928

The AGA Division in the Context of FAO’s The AGA Division in the Context of FAO’s Strategic Framework 2000 - 2015Strategic Framework 2000 - 2015

Objective• Eradication of food insecurity and rural poverty

Strategies• Policy and regulatory frameworks for food, agriculture, fisheries

and forestry• Sustainable increases in the supply and availability of food and

other products from the crop, livestock, fisheries and forestry sectors

• Conservation, improvement and sustainable use of natural resources for food and agriculture

• Improving decision-making through provision of information and assessments and fostering of knowledge management for food and agriculture

AGA Livestock

ProgrammeProgramme Entities

• Contribution of livestock to poverty alleviation

• Global strategy for the management of farm animal genetic resources

• Technologies and systems for efficient and sustainable natural resources use in intensifying and expanding livestock production

AGA Livestock

ProgrammeProgramme Entities

• Environmental management of insect-borne diseases

• Emergency prevention system for transboundary animal diseases

• Veterinary public health management and food and feed safety

AGA Livestock

ProgrammeProgramme Entities

• Livestock information and knowledge system

• Livestock sector analysis and strategy development

Total livestock biomass density change (kg/km²): 1962-1994

>-500-500 - 00 - 2020 - 100100 - 250250 - 750750 - 15001500 - 30003000 - 6000>6000

Estimated disease occurrence score

Low disease occurrence

High disease occurrence

No data

Livestock and Public Health: FactsLivestock and Public Health: Facts

low intensity production: “classical zoonoses” (brucellosis, tuberculosis, trichinellosis)low intensity production: “classical zoonoses” (brucellosis, tuberculosis, trichinellosis)

zoonoses of “intensification”: caused by bacteria(coli, salmonella, campylobacter) because of animal movements and food processing; antibiotic resistance

emerging zoonoses (Nippah virus, BSE, avian flu); creation of “new” pathogens

Livestock and their products can be a major public health hazard

Intensity increases

EU-Geographical BSE Risk Analysis

Not done

Highly unlikely

Unlikely

Likely or lower level

Confirmed at higher

level

FAO Actions

• Assist countries in national risk assessment and capacity building for BSE surveillance and control

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001FMD - evolution of S-Asia serotype

FMD - geographical distribution

EU countries stopped vaccination in 1992

International collaboration in FMD control is crucial

Europe: European Commission for the Control of FMD (EUFMD)

Latin America: Hemispheric FMD Eradication Plan (Panaftosa)

Africa: Pan-African Programme for the Control of Epizotics (PACE)

S-E Asia: Regional FMD control programme (OIE)

FMD - assessment and action

Eight Selected Medium-Term Outputs of the AGA Animal Production and Health Programme

Global Livestock Information System and Knowledge Framework, including Global Animal Agriculture Atlas

Livestock Development Strategy Negotiation Framework

State-of-the-World Report on Animal Genetic Resources

Environmental Impact of Livestock Production Assessed

The World Without Rinderpest

Decision Support for R&D Allowing Smallholder Livestock Producers to Enter Competitive Markets

Integrated Trypanosomiasis Control in Priority Areas

Feed and Food Safety Codes and Best Practices in Animal Production

Thank you