Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

GLOBAL TALENTRALLY

Sally Khallash, sk@cifs.dk

International workforce mobility

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Facts on Estonia

• Demographic development:– 2009 fertility rate: 1,63, and life expectancy: 75,04.

– Demographic labour pressure index: 0,79 Lowest yet!

• More people leave than enter Estonia.– 2009 Net migration = -7,74 per 1000 people.

– Most emigrants are young families, graduates and young professionals.

– Both foreign born and nationals in age group 20-35 represent the large majority of emigrants!

• Very selective immigration policies. Between 2004-2009, number of:– Short term employment permits was halved, from 500 to 220.

– Work permits was reduced to a quarter, from 2000 to 500.

– Residence permits for employment doubled, from 500 t0 1050.

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

ARE YOU ABLE TO

ATTRACT?

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Estonias Competitiveness?

Sweden Finland Germany Estonia Lithuania Latvia

Need 16 4 15 24 13 8

Attract 7 20 14 24 32 29

Access 9 16 24 59 33 55

Overall

rank

7 16 17 43 29 41

Source: World Economic Forum (2008): Global Migration Barometer

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Economic DevelopemtGDP Growth 2000-2010

19%

33%

15%

61%

96%

28%

Source: www.imf.org - IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)

Estonia lower

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Knowledge Accumulation:New Knowledge Hotspots

Source: UNESCO 2009

Estonia 1,9%

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Demographic Change:

An aging world

Source: UN Population Perspectives, 2008

Estonia

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Migration in Estonia

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year Source: Statistics Estonia

Nu

mb

er

of

mig

ran

ts

Immigration

Emigration

Net migration

Source: Statistics Estonia, SOURCE: PO R01

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

NEED FORNEW

STRATEGIESNew Segments and Profiles

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Current Strategy:

Attract Estonians from abroad

Re-entry shock!-Feel alienated. -Barriers to re-integration.-‘Yoyo movers’.

Strategy:- Attentive to symptoms.- Manage expectations, prepare arrival, stay active, create network & safety net.

Positive outcomes:

re-socialisation-World-mindedness

-Increased creativity

-Increased tolerance

within organizations and

in society.

Negative outcomes:-Alienation & emigration

-Spread of negative

information to other ex-

pats and Estonian

diasporas.

Source: Re-entry shock:torn between two cultures by Martha Denney & Erin Eckert

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

The Skilled and Talented

Source: IFFs analyse på baggrund af data fra UN Population Division: International Migration Global Assessment 2006

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Females, singles and their nannies

• Females

– ½ of migrant population are females.

– 60% of students in Europe & US and nearly 70% in

developing countries are females.

– 40% more skilled females than males among migrants.

• Singles

– Mobility does not fall according to life cycle.

– Strong need for low skilled labor.

• Low skilled labor force

– Migration myth we only need highly skilled labor.

– In US: 2 pct. of labor force but 22 pct. of domestic

help.

Source: UN Population Database + Cortes and Tessada (2007): Cheap maids and Nannies

– how low skilled are changing labor supply of highly skilled women.

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

The Mobile Millennials

Source: PWC, ’Talent Mobility 2020’

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Grandparents??

Source: Intelligence Group: Get ready for the international recruitment rally, 2009

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Different needs in different life phases

Source: CIFS MR#3, 2010 ’Global Talent Rally’ + PWC ‘Talent Mobility 2020’

Life-

stage

Apprx. Age Number 2020 Needs and challenges

Free 1

(‘90-’00)

20-35 years Slightly more

Millenials

Nomads, searching for

identity, self-realization,

big cities.

Parent

(‘70-’80)

35-55 years Fewer

Gen. X

Pressed for time and money,

selective, balance between

work and family.

Free 2

(‘60ies)

55+ years More

Baby Boomers

New opportunities,

meaning, consumption

options, health, self-

realization.

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Think strategies with time frames

Low-Skilled Medium-Skilled Highly-Skilled

Permanent Rural Migration

Asyllum seeking

Political/Environmental

Refugee

Forced Migration

Elder/Retired

Political refugees

Health Care

Political Refugee

Temporary Au-pair

Service sector-

hospitality

Youth

Construction Sector

Health Care

Elder

Youth

Health Care

IT-Sector

Students

Circular Au-pair

Service sector-

hospitality

Seasonal Labor

Youth

Construction Sector

Health Care

Researchers

Global talents

Generation Y

Creative Class

Resourcesfull Elder

Source: CIFS (3 / 2010): Global Talent Rally

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

THANKS FOR YOUR

ATTENTION!Sally Khallash, sk@cifs.dk