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Global Cleantech Report 2012COPENHAGEN CLEANTECH CLUSTER
May, 2012
- EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION -
A SNAPSHOT OF FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS
www.quartzco.com
DENMARKRyesgade 3A2200 CopenhagenT: +45 33 17 00 00
NORWAYWergelandsveien 210167 OsloT: +47 22 59 36 00
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DOWNLOAD REPORTcphcleantech.com/global-cleantech-report
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Table of contents
1) Executive Summary
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the f astest-growing platforms
The centre of gravity for cleantech growth is moving East and West
The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system
To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?
Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
2) Appendix
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 9 p. 10
p. 11
p. 12
p. 13
p. 15
p. 16 p. 17
p. 18
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The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore windas the fastest-growing platforms
2010 Market
2015 Growth
7% 84%CAGR
Cleantech plaforms market size (USD billions)
Note: Markets include all major CAPEX but not operations or commodities. Total may vary due to roundingsSources: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
28% 39%3% -7%26% 4% 66%74%6% 18%
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
113 15
63
59
-28
72
13 8
Geothermal
521 3
Energystorage
7
1 6
Maritimecleantech
8
Clean roadtransport
13
1
Bioenergy
13
10 4
Solid waste
31
26
5
Offshorewind
73
14
Solar PV(2011-2015)
79
107
Smart grid
89
26
Onshorewind
110
95
Buildingefficiencymaterials
160
47
Clean water
243
171
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Cities have the power to influence cleantech investments
through large projectsTop-30 cities will drive 20% of the GDP growth from 2010-20
The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the newnormal"
Top-30cities
Total GDP growth,2010-2020
Total populationgrowth, 2010-2020
20%
60%
100%
10% 100%
Top-600cities
ROW
Source: McKinsey & Co, Brookings Institute, PWC, UN, World Bank, C40, MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
Area
Transport
Buildings
Waste
Water
Energy supply
Outdoor lighting
City power Number of city projects
ECO-city definition
ECO-cities cover five focus areas which contribute to improve thequality of life in cities while using resources in a sustainable wayand reducing environmental impact
Urban transport Waste Renewable and smart energy generation and distribution Water Building energy efficiency
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The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developingmegacities and suburb areas
2010 2015 2020
Ruralareas 50%
(6,84)
48%
(7,22)
46%
(7,57)
2025 2030
43%
(7,91)
41%
(8,22)
50%Urbanareas52% 54%
57% 59%
Share of the world's population living in urban areasPer cent (billion people)
Example of Chinese investments in megacity developments
China is planning toinvest DKK 1.800billion across 160infrastructure projectsover the next coupleof years to mergenine cities in SouthChina, creating a citywith 42 millioninhabitants*
Total investment in urban infrastructure in China over the nextfive years is expected to hit GBP 685 billion, with an additional
GBP 300 billion spend on high-speed rail and GBP 70 billion onurban transport
British Chamber of Commerce
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
*The Telegraph, 24 Jan 2011, by Malcolm Moore in Shanghai and Pet er Foster in BeijingSource: World Economic Forum; The Economist; British Chamber of Commerce
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-
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks willaccount for the majority of the cleantech growth
Indian megagrowth
Wealth creators
Rapidurbanisation
Great BRIC+
Absolute GDP Growth ($ billion)
A b s o
l u t e P o p u
l a t i o n
G r o w
t h ( 1 0 3 )
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS and GLOBAL MARKETS
Great Turks
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under waySource: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
1
2
5
6
4
3
Top-200 large cities' growth trajectories, 2012-2020
AmericanHotspots
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Table of contentsEXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
1) Executive summary
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth
The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
The centre of gravity for cleantech growth is moving East and West
The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system
To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?
Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
2) Appendix
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 9
p. 10
p. 11
p. 12
p. 13
p. 15
p. 16
p. 17
p. 18
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So far, no cleantech or clean energy industry has managedto cross the cost of energy chasm without legislative supportthrough incentives or codes
In order to become a viable global industry, cleantech mustreduce cost of energy to become independent of governmentalsupport
To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and acceleratethe industrialisation
In 2035, subsidies to renewables reach almost USD 250billion in the New Policies Scenario. Onshore wind becomescompetitive around 2020 in the European Union All other technologies require continuing subsidies
World Energy Outlook 2011
243Offshore wind
Coal 109
smart grid and building energy efficiency equipment andservices are the most probable ones crossing the cost ofenergy chasm since they are able to reduce alternativeinvestments in infrastructure while reducing the operating cost
The Global Cleantech Report 2012
* Estimated for plants entering into service in 2016. Unit is 2012 USD** The extra cost varies between count ries due to difference in local build culture, certif ication programmes and green build material production
Source: World Energy Outlook; Reuters; World Business Council Sustainable Development BCI Survey; Quartz+Co analysis; MEC Intelligence analysis
Time
M a r k e
t p e n e t r a
t i o n
Cost of energy chasm
56
7
89
1
23
4
56789
1234
Green buildingsSolar PVSolid wasteOffshore windOnshore windBioenergySmart gridGeothermalClean road transport
CoalGas Oil
Next gen.cleantech
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
Sample technology maturity curveEXAMPLES ILLUSTRATIVE Coal vs. wind global average costs* (USD/MWh)
"Non-green" vs. green building extra up-front cost for green building**
Green building China 28%
Green building Germany 17%
Green building US 16%
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Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
Transport infrastructure CAPEX saving
Water utility CAPEX saving
Energy/water subsidy saving
Energy infrastructure CAPEX saving
Green building extra CAPEX
0
Net benefit
Retaining attractive population
Attractive lucrative jobs
Job creation from local content
0 0
Affordable Greening - e.g. Lagos Comfort Evolution - e.g. Mexico City Branded City - e.g. London
$Business case = (utility CAPEX saving) + (OPEX saving) + (job creation) + (less CO2 emissions) + ....Complex value creation
Financial Societal Environmental
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
City segment
Value (USD)
Savings from integrated "One System" solutions across city segments
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
ILLUSTRATIVE
City segment description Driven by extreme urbanization and low GDP Need to create a large growth in new housings Making these housings and infrastructure
green can create the lowest total CAPEX for water, electricity and waste
Evident in most large and fast growing citiesin developing countries
Strong urbanization in recent years Focus on livability through buildings with
improved comfort, more efficienttransportation and typically most important clean water and clean air
Large cities in the developed world which arecompeting against each other to attract theright companies and to be a very attr activeplace to live for its citizens
The ECO city projects are not a need drivenambition but a strive towards being a trulybetter place
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to a macro approach where purchasing decisions are co -
ordinated and made on an aggregated level across sectors
From a micro-thinking approach with multiple customer
touch- points across sectors
Master
planning
The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand ismoving towards complex value systems
Traditional go-to-market approach Market approach towards megacities
Suppliers Suppliers Suppliers Suppliers
Energy Transport Water Buildings
Energy Transport Water Buildings
Suppliers
ILLUSTRATIVE ILLUSTRATIVE
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
Source: Quartz+Co analysis
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Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital andcompetences in the "greening" of megacities
Lack of capital
Cities areempowered toimplement newsustainable projectsbut limited by accessto capital
30%57%
100%
PPP & ADB's
Gov. Funds
Urban Local
2020
20%
50%
2011
10%
33%
Note: PPP = Public-Private Partnerships, ADB = Asia Development BankSource: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Lack ofcompetences
Competences for sustainable planningand implementationare in shortage
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
India case: Expected development in fundingof regional projects in India
Competition for resources is fierce.Because of growth pressures andcapital constraints , compromisesare often reached to serve moreinterests rather than to serve morepeople more effectively
The World Bank Ecological Cities as Economic Cities 2010
Cities in developing countries facemuch tougher challenges than dotheir counterparts in developedcountries. Technical capacity isoften lacking
The World Bank Ecological Cities as Economic Cities 2010
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Case 1: Veolia and Suez
Global leaders in water, FrenchVeolia Environnement (Vivendi)
and Suez Environnement havepartnered on PPP water projects and have pioneeredthe PPP model, injectingfinance into the system anddriving market growth andconsolidation.
In a PPP, ownership of assetsremains public and only certainfunctions are delegated to aprivate company for a specificperiod.
Case 2: Toshiba
The Japanese major globalplayer Toshiba is driving some
part of the Delhi MumbaiCorridor through large scalePPP projects funded by JapanInc.
Consortium of Japanesecompanies (Toshiba-TokyoGas-NEC) have signed a MoU*on a priority ECO-city project.
Case 3: Keppel Corp
Tianjin Eco-city is sponsoredby Keppel Corp from
Singapore.The Keppel Group wasentrusted to lead the Singaporeprivate sector consortium for abilateral co-operation projectand works in close tandem witha Chinese consortium partner to guide the 50-50 joint venture
Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment andDevelopment Co.,Ltd. (SSTEC) in its role asmaster developer of the TianjinEco-city.
The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partneringregimes
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
* Memorandum of UnderstandingSource: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Case 4: Siemens
Siemens' new Infrastructure &Cities Sector will manage the
company's global business withcities and infrastructures. Thenew Sector, with around 87.000employees, will contain theMobility and BuildingTechnology Divisions from theIndustry Sector, as well as thePower Distribution Division andSmart Grid business from theEnergy Sector.
Key Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) success cases
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Table of contentsEXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 9
p. 10
p. 11
p. 12
p. 13
p. 15
p. 16
p. 17
p. 18
1) Executive summary
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth
The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
The centre of gravity for cleantech growth is moving East and West
The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
The six megacity cleantech clusters including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system
To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?
Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
2) Appendix
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Clean water
1. Grundfos
2. Novozym es3. 7T
1. Top 50
2. Top 1003. Top 50
Green buildings
1. Rockwool2. VKR3. Grundfos4. Danfoss5. Kamstrup
1. Top 52. Top 103. Top 104. Top 105. Top 50
Onshore wind
1. Vestas2. Siemens3. AH industr ies4. Hydratech
1. Top 102. Top 103. Top 104. Top 10
Smart grid 1 . DONG Energy2. EnergiNet1. Top 502. Top 50
Solar 1. Danfoss Power Electronics 1. Top 50
Offshore wind
1. Vestas/Siemens2 . DONG Energy3. A2Sea4. NKT5. Bladt
1. Top 52. Top 53. Top 54. Top 105. Top 10
Solid waste1 . DONG Energy2 . Kommune Kemi3. Hrslev Industries
1. Top 502. Top 503. Top 10
Bioenergy1. Babcock2. Novozym es
3 . DONG Energy
1. Top 102. Top 10
3. Top 50
Clean road transport 1 . Bet te r P lace2. Danfoss1. Top 102. Top 20
Maritime cleantech1. Desmi2. Alfa Laval Aalborg3. AP Mller Maersk
1. Top 102. Top 53. Top 5
Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
* Indicative global rating in niche mark et, e.g. Rockwool in the insulation market or Grundfos in the water utility equipment market based on MEC Intelligence analysisSource: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Cleantech industry Competence level in DK Global market size 2015 Sample companies Global ranking within market*
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Business cases
Innovation
Markets
Partners
Sales and marketing
Customer relations
Business models
Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
B u s
i n e s s s
t r a
t e g y
V a
l u e
p r o p o s
i t i o n
G o
t o M a r k e
t
Strategic focus area
Risk diversification and avoidance
Stand-alone (single bottom line)
Walled garden
BRIC market, Europe and North America
DIY
"Push"
Industrial
From ... ... to
Risk sharing/Risk management
Integrated system business case(multiple bottom lines)
Open garden
Mega- and large cities focus on globalscale
Partner with lead turnkey providers
Push/pull (key opinion leaders)
Institutional and industrial
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Products Engineering and "High end"Scalable "mass production" developedto local needs
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In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battleof the cleantech sector
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
The right place: large cities
Relations must be build with stakeholder on city level globally
Community presenceand relationships arecritical to pave the wayfor commercial successin megacities
The right partners: leading solution
providers
Participate in PPP and Partner withleading solution/turnkey providers
Megacities are
demanding integratedsolutions in whichpreviously independentcomponents andservices are bundled
The right offering: local needs and local value creation
Develop offering and new businessmodels embracing complex value creationand multiple bottom lines at local level
Local economies andsocietal agendas arehighest priority for megacity stakeholders
Go-to-marketmodel
How can your company best succeed inthe market with the new channel needsand market logic?
As a stand-alone company only offering own products and services
Through partnerships with other players offering more integrated solutions
Valueproposition
To what extent is your stand-alone offeringunique and innovative in the market interms of other solutions from competitorsand substitutes?
Businessstrategy
How, and in what order, should you
address the different subsegmentsin the market (cities/geographies)?
Organisational capabilities
What are the organisational requirementsneeded to be able to address this newchannel/market?
To what extent do your current governanceand competences match the needs?
Key considerations Key beliefs "Recommendations "
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Table of contents
1) Executive summary
2) Appendix
Cleantech sectors
Clean water
Green buildings
Onshore wind
Smart grid
Solar
Offshore wind
Solid waste
Bioenergy
Clean road transport
Geothermal
The Megacity Clusters
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
p. 19 + 20
p. 21
p. 22
p. 23
p. 24
p. 25
p. 26 + 27
p. 28
p. 29
p. 30
p. 31
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As the largest and fastest-growing market globally, Asia dominates the water market as key developedmarkets mature
Clean water CAPEX and OPEX made by Utilities, Municipalities and Industries Global market across regions, 2010-2015E(USD billions)
~2%% CAGR (2010-2015)
~5%~6%
~5%
~7%
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
~3%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
High/Large
Low/Small
2520
Africa
20152010
160
Asia
2015
220
2010
3124
Australia
20152010
159140
Europe
20152010
157142
North America
20152010
3325
South America20152010
APPENDIX
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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The capital expenditure in the water sector is expected to grow from USD ~170 billion in 2010 to USD~245 billion in 2015 or nearly 30-35% of the total water market
Clean water CAPEX Water and Waste Water Infrastructure Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~5%
~8%~9%
~8%
~10%
~6%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
107
Africa
20152010
85
54
Asia
20152010
128
Australia
20152010
62
47
Europe
20152010
61
48
North America
20152010
13
8
South America
20152010
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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Europe is projected to be the largest market for green buildings in 2015 followed by North America and Asia Asia is expected to grow at almost double the rate of Europe
Green building materials CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~32%
425
107
20152010
563
202
20152010
00
20152010
81
20152010
35
6
20152010
321
60
20152010
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa andMiddle East
Asia
Australia
N.a.~52%
~42%
~40%
~23%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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Value-wise, the key onshore wind markets are large and stagnant. Growth is coming from new regions
Onshore wind CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~3%
2219
20152010
2524
20152010
32
20152010
92
20152010
41
20152010
4747
20152010
North
America
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~11%~31%
~25%
~0%*
~1%
* Global price-erosion of 5% p.a., based on sample analysis of key turbine manufacturers, balancing out increase in number of GW installe d p.a. in AsiaSource: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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Asia (China) is expected to become the predominant smart grid market by 2015 growing rapidly from 2010to 2015 and outpacing both Europe and North America
Smart grid CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD bill ions)
~11%
74
20152010
94
20152010
00
2010 2015
21
20152010
71
19
2010 2015
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
NA~21%
NA
~31%~22%
Source: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
00
20152010
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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2011 was "PEAK Solar". Towards 2015 the European solar market will drop significantly while all other markets demonstrate strong growth led by North America
Solar energy CAPEX Global market across regions, 2011-2015E (USD billions)
SouthAmerica
~29%
~5%
~-22%
Source: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
2011 2015
Asia
1417
2011 2015
Australia 01
2011 2015
Africa 00
2011 2015
Europe
82
30
2011 2015
North America
9
26
~30%
2011 2015
South America 00
NA. NA.
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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26
Northern Europe is projected to maintain its status as the largest offshore wind market in 2015 and Asia,North America and South America is projected to experience rapid growth
Offshore wind CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~72%
12
0
20152010
38
14
20152010
00
20152010
20
2010 2015
00
20152010
21
0
20152010
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
NA.~60%
NA.
~74%
~22%
Source: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
% CAGR (2012-2015)
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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27
The global market for solid waste management is expected to grow from nearly USD 425 billion in 2005to nearly USD 500 billion in 2020
Solid waste* CAPEX and OPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD bill ions)
~3%
~7%
~4%
~3%
* The water market comprises expenditure on both equipment and services. The waste market for Africa is primarily comprised of investment into the collection servicesand hence has not been studied. The Australian market is comprised of only 2% of the global market and hence is considered too small to be considered for the study
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
2010
153
2015
184
Asia2010 2015
Europe
129 149
2010 2015
North America
110 128
1410
2010 2015
South America
APPENDIX
00
20152010
00
20152010
NA.
NA.
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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28
More than 90% of the expenditure on solid waste is in services or operations. The new investments neededin the municipal waste management sector are only a fraction of the market size amounting to nearly USD25-35 billion annually
Solid waste* 10-year investments needed by sector (percentage)
* This investment size might not be realised due to lack of policy and institutional supportSource: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
57
21
8
10
4
Africa100% = USD 11 billion*
43
12
16
23
6
Asia100% = USD 86 billion
25
4
10
29
32
Australia100% = USD 4 billion
Europe100% = USD 87 billion
53
37
10
0
Mechanical and Biological Treatment
Waste to Energy
Dump Upgrade and Closure
Landfill and Composting
0
Collection and Transfer
South America100% = USD 16 billion*
33
23
25
19
0
Landfill and Composting
Mechanical and Biological Treatment
Waste to Energy
Dump Upgrade and Closure
Collection and Transfer
North America100% = USD 45 billion
33
23
25
19
0
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
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29
North America to be the largest bioenergy market in 2015 followed by South America and Europe Australia is growing rapidly
Bioenergy CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~5%
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~19%
~5%~4%
~10%
~7%
Source: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
1926
2010 2015
4152
20152010
2010 2015
0 1
20152010
59
2010 2015
2127
2010 2015
0 0
Biomass electricity production
Biofuel
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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30
Asia and Europe are expected to become the leading EV and PHEV markets looking towards 2015 followedby North America
EV and PHEV CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~79%
20
20152010
50
20152010
00
20152010
00
20152010
00
20152010
60
20152010
North
America
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~73%NA.
NA.
~72%
~94%
Source: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
Charging infrastructureGlobal market, 2010-2015E (USD billions) 10
20152010
~95%
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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31
Asia is poised to become the largest geothermal market in 2015 followed by North America and Europe
Geothermal CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD millions)
~11%
899
2015
1.530
2010
336
2015
1.096
2010
142
61
20152010
00
20152010
00
2010 2015
778
2015
1.922
2010
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~18%
NA.
NA.
~20%
~27%
Source: MEC Intelligence ; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
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32
The top-30 megacities can be divided into six cleantech clusters with the Great Turks growing at the samepace as Great BRIC+
Segment Cities
Rapidurbanisation
Lagos
KaraciJakartaWuhanChongqing
Indianmegagrowth
DelhiMumbaiKolkotta
Wealthcreators
New YorkBeijingTokyoShanghaiLondonSeoul
Great BRIC+
ShenzenSao PaoloHong KongMoscowMexico CityBangkokTianjinGuangzhouHangzhouBangalore
Great Turks IstanbulIzmir
AmericanHotspots
Los AngelesHoustonChicagoWashington
APPENDIX
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under waySource: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 50 100 150 200 250
LagosWuhan
Izmir Karachi
BangaloreHangzhou
Jakarta
HoustonHong KongChongqing
WashingtonBangkokIstanbulMoscowKolkataTianjin
ChicagoMexicoShenzhen
Los AngelesGuangzhou
Sao PaoloSeoul
BeijingDelhi
LondonNew York
Tokyo
ShanghaiMumbai
Top-30 absolute GDP growth, 2010-2020 (USD billions)
5.985
2.723
2.152
7.405
2.439
1.4428.779
1.060
723
4.539
616
1.201
2.581
659
2.824
818
790
2.266
2.592
526
494
2.283
1.226
1.045
9.259
5.768
1.204
463
579
1.069
0 2 .0 00 4 .0 00 6 .0 00 8 .0 00 1 0.0 00
LagosWuhan
Izmir Karachi
BangaloreHangzhou
Jakarta
HoustonHong
ChongqingWashington
BangkokIstanbulMoscowKolkataTianjin
ChicagoMexicoShenzhen
Los AngelesGuangzhou
SaoSeoul
BeijingDelhi
MumbaiShanghai
LondonNew York
Tokyo
Top-30 absolute population growth, 2010-2020 (103)