Post on 28-May-2018
North American Markets: Oil, Gas, Electricity
The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting
November 2, 2010
Hal Kvisle Former President and CEO, TransCanada Corporation
Forward-Looking Information
This presentation may contain certain information that is forward looking and is subject to
important risks and uncertainties. The words "anticipate", "expect", "may", "should",
"estimate", "project", "outlook", "forecast" or other similar words are used to identify such
forward-looking information. All forward-looking statements reflect TransCanada’s beliefs
and assumptions based on information available at the time the statements were made.
Actual results or events may differ from those predicted in these forward-looking statements.
Factors which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current
expectations include, among other things, the ability of TransCanada to successfully
implement its strategic initiatives and whether such strategic initiatives will yield the
expected benefits, the operating performance of the Company’s pipeline and energy assets,
the availability and price of energy commodities, regulatory processes and decisions, changes
in environmental and other laws and regulations, competitive factors in the pipeline and
energy industry sectors, construction and completion of capital projects, labour, equipment
and material costs, access to capital markets, interest and currency exchange rates,
technological developments and the current economic conditions in North America. By its
nature, such forward-looking information is subject to various risks and uncertainties, which
could cause TransCanada's actual results and experience to differ materially from the
anticipated results or expectations expressed. Additional information on these and other
factors is available in the reports filed by TransCanada with Canadian securities regulators
and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place
undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is given as of the date it is
expressed in this presentation or otherwise, and to not use future-oriented information or
financial outlooks for anything other than their intended purpose. TransCanada undertakes
no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a
result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
3
North American Oil Consumption
• Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Dec 2009)
• EIA International Energy Outlook 2010 (July 2010)
US Motor Gasoline
US Distillate Fuel Oil
US Jet Fuel
US LPG
US Other
Canada
Mexico
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
MMb/d
4
North American Oil Production
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2010 (July 2010)
United States
Conventional
United States
Unconventional
Canada Conventional
Canada Unconventional
Mexico Conventional
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
MMb/d
5
United States Crude Oil Production and Supply
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (Dec 2009)
Net Imports
Lower 48 Onshore
Lower 48 Offshore
Alaska
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
MMb/d
Pentanes/CondensateConv. Light and Medium
Conv. Heavy
Oil Sands Mining
Oil Sands In-Situ
Atlantic
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Mb/d
6
Canadian Oil Production
• Source: CAPP 2010-2025 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook (June 2010)
• Growth (Expected) Case
Canada, U.S. and Mexico Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Electric Generation Industrial Residential Commercial Other
Bcf/d History Forecast
2009-2025 Growth 1.3% pa
Industrial 1.4% pa
Electricity Gen 2.3% pa
Res 0.4% pa
Com 0.6% pa
North American Supply\Demand Balance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Gulf of Mexico + U.S. Other
WCSB U.S. Rockies
Eastern Canada
Bcf/d
LNG
Mexico
Demand
History Forecast
U.S. Shale
BC Unconv.
9
United States Electricity Generation Enduring Coal Scenario
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2010 (July 2010)
Coal
Natural gas
Liquids
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, Geothermal, Other
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
10
United States Electricity Generation Switch to Gas Scenario
Source: IHS CERA North American Gas and Power Scenarios - Electric Power Tables (Aug 2010)
Coal
Natural Gas
Liquids
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, Geothermal, Other
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
TWh
11
Canada Electricity Generation
Source: IHS CERA North American Gas and Power Scenarios - Electric Power Tables (Aug 2010)
Coal
Natural GasLiquids
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, Geothermal, Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
TWh
12
Mexico Electricity Generation
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2010 (July 2010)
Coal
Natural gas
Liquids
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, Geothermal, Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
TWh
TransCanada
North America’s Largest Natural Gas Pipeline Network
60,000 km (37,000 mi) wholly-owned
8,800 km (5,500 mi) partially-owned
Average volume of 14 Bcf/d
North America’s 2nd Largest Natural Gas Storage Operator
380 Bcf of capacity
Canada’s Largest Private Sector Power Generator
19 power plants, 10,800 MW
Premier North American Oil Pipeline Under Construction
1.1 million B/d
4,000 Talented Employees
In 7 provinces and 34 states