Post on 28-Aug-2020
REFERENCE CODE GDPE0740ICR | PUBLICATION DATE OCTOBER 2014
CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS,
AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
This report is available on ASDReports.com: https://www.asdreports.com/ASDR-24161
CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Executive Summary
Outlook of Canada’s Power Sector
Renewable power remains one of the fastest
growing sectors in Canada’s power sector.
Between 2000 and 2013, the historic period
covered in this report, the country’s renewable
power capacity grew at a Compound Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%, while renewable
power generation grew at a CAGR of XX%. Both of
these rates were the highest among all types of
energy used in Canada, such as thermal power,
hydropower, nuclear power, and renewable power.
Renewable power technologies went from
representing only XX% of the total installed
capacity in 2000 to constituting XX% in 2013. The
following figure shows the shares of various fuel
types in the total installed capacity as of 2013.
Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2013
Hydropower
Gas (thermal)
Nuclear
Coal (thermal)
Wind (onshore)Oil (thermal) Other renewables
Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on September 16, 2014]
Baseload power demand in Canada is met through
hydropower, thermal power from gas, and nuclear
power. The importance of nuclear power is steadily
declining, but that of gas-based thermal power
generation is growing. A few large hydropower
projects are in the pipeline, and are expected to
increase hydropower capacity from XX Gigawatts
(GW) to XX GW by 2030. As a percentage of
contribution to the total installed capacity, this will
be a decline from the present XX% to XX%, which
is expected to be replenished by an increase in
renewable energy sources. The government is also
strongly emphasizing the reduction of energy
consumption. So, while Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) has grown by XX% during this period
electricity consumption has grown only XX%, as
depicted in the following figure alongside the
forecast growth in GDP until 2019.
Power Market, Canada, GDP ($tr) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2019
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Annu
al p
ower
con
sum
ptio
n (T
Wh)
GD
P ($
tr)
GDP (constant prices) Annual power consumption
Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2014
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CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Introduction
2 Introduction
Canada is a developed country with an economy that is primarily dependent upon its
manufacturing, mining, and service sectors. It has shifted over the last century from a largely rural
economy into one that is primarily industrial and urban. In 2013, the service sector contributed an
estimated XX% of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), followed by the industrial sector with
XX% and the agricultural sector with XX% (CIA, 2014). Canada is also a significant exporter of raw
goods, which is rare for a developed country. It exports motor vehicles and parts, industrial
machinery, aircraft, telecommunications equipment, chemicals, plastics, fertilizers, wood pulp,
timber, crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, and aluminum.
Canada’s major export partners are the US and the UK. The 1989 US–Canada Free Trade
Agreement (FTA) and the 1994 North American FTA have contributed to its economic integration
with the US, which is Canada’s principal trading partner. Canada is the US’s largest foreign
supplier of energy.
Canada is a member of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
and the G8. It has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) since January 1, 1995.
The WTO is the cornerstone of Canadian trade policy and provides a forum for the advancement of
relations between established and potential global trading partners. Between 2009 and 2010,
Canada registered one of the largest increases, in real terms, in Official Development Assistance
(ODA), a measure through which developed countries promote economic development in
developing countries.
Between 1993 and 2007, Canada benefited from steady economic growth. In 2008, its economy
went into decline, due to the global economic crisis. Its export-oriented economy was adversely
affected by the recession of 2008 and 2009, recording a GDP decline of XX%, in 2009. After 2009,
the major banks emerged from the financial crisis due to its tradition of conservative lending
practices and strong capitalization. The economy recovered in 2010, with GDP growing at XX%. In
2011, its GDP growth rate decreased to XX% and was even lower in 2012, at XX%. However,
there was a slight improvement in 2013, with GDP growth of XX% being recorded (IMF, 2014).
The petroleum sector is rapidly becoming a major economic driver in Canada, and its growth is
expected to be driven by increasing exports of energy and energy-related products, including oil,
gas, electricity and petroleum.
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CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Introduction
Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) is the ministry responsible for the development of policies and
programs related to natural resources, energy, minerals, metals, forests, earth sciences, mapping
and remote sensing. The National Energy Board (NEB) and the Canadian Nuclear Safety
Commission (CNSC) are Canada’s two independent regulators, and the Canadian Electricity
Association (CEA) is its national forum for electricity business. Those electric utilities that are
involved in the generation and Transmission and Distribution (T&D) of electricity are members of
CEA.
2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance
The executive summary captures the key growth trends in the Canadian power market.
Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters that affect Canada’s power sector, as
well as key points about the power market.
Chapter four provides analysis of Canada’s power market, including the market shares of the
leading power generation companies, a ratio analysis of the leading power utilities, and an
analysis of electricity consumption.
Chapter five details the regulatory structure of the power market and the inward foreign
investment scenario.
Chapter six provides information on Canada’s cumulative installed capacity and annual
generation trends, by individual generation source.
Chapter seven describes the power T&D infrastructure in Canada and provides information on
interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also covers electricity imports and
exports and upcoming grid-related projects in Canada.
Note: From 2013, the report provides actual or estimated data depending upon the availability of
information at the time of writing.
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CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Market Analysis
4.4.1 Consumption by Sector, 2013
The industrial sector was the largest consumer of electricity in Canada in 2011 and 2012. This
trend continued in 2013, with the industrial sector accounting for the largest slice of annual
consumption, estimated at XX%. The residential sector came next, with an estimated consumption
share of XX%. Trade and commercial institutions are estimated to have contributed XX% to total
power consumption in 2013. Agriculture, transport and other smaller sectors are estimated to have
together been responsible for the remaining XX% of total power consumption in 2013.
Figure 7: Power Market, Canada, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2013
Industrial
Residential
Trade, commerce, and other services
Agriculture and fisheries
Transport
Other
Source: GlobalData
Table 8: Power Market, Canada, Electricity Consumption by Sector (%), 2013 Sector Share
Industrial
Residential
Trade, commerce, and other services
Agriculture and fisheries
Transport
Other
Source: GlobalData
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CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Capacity and Generation Overview
6.2 Canada, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2030
Cumulative installed capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during the 2014–2030
forecast period to reach XX GW. The relative shares held by hydropower and renewable sources
are expected to be about XX% and XX% in 2030, and the installed capacity of both sources is
expected to amount to XX GW and XX GW, respectively. The reason for this is the increased focus
on emission-free electricity generation. No major increase in thermal power is expected, because
of a shift in focus away from coal-fired power plants to natural gas-fired power plants as a source
for power generation. In 2030, Canada’s installed thermal capacity is expected to be XX GW. As a
contribution to total capacity, this is expected to amount to XX%. Coal, gas and oil are expected to
hold respective shares of XX%, XX%, and XX% of total installed thermal capacity. The share of
total capacity contributed by nuclear power is expected to be about XX%.
Between 2014 and 2030, overall electricity generation is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX to
reach XX TWh. Hydropower generation is expected to reach XX TWh in 2030, contributing XX% of
total electricity generation. Renewable power generation is expected to increase at a CAGR of
XX% during the 2014–2030 forecast period, because of a large number of upcoming projects.
Thermal generation is expected to decrease at a negative CAGR of XX% during the forecast
period, due to lower capacity utilization. The thermal generation shares held by coal, oil and gas in
2030 are expected to be XX%, XX%, and XX%, respectively. Nuclear power generation is
expected to decrease as well during the forecast period, at a CAGR of XX%, because of the
decommissioning of some existing plants. Only two nuclear plants are expected to come online
during the forecast period.
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CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Capacity and Generation Overview
Figure 9: Power Market, Canada, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Ann
ual p
ower
gen
erat
ion
(TW
h)
Cum
ulat
ive
inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (G
W)
Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation
Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on September 16, 2014]
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Appendix
CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
9 Appendix
9.1 Market Definitions
9.1.1 Power
Power refers to the rate of production, transfer or energy use, usually related to electricity. It is
measured in Watts (W) and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known
as real power or active power.
9.1.2 Installed Capacity
Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer, or
the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. It is given in Megawatts (MW) on
a nameplate affixed to the generator.
9.1.3 Electricity Generation
Electricity generation refers to the process of generating electricity from other forms of energy. It
also refers to the amount of electricity produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).
9.1.4 Electricity Consumption
Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports and
Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses. It is measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh).
9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant
A thermal power plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.
9.1.6 Hydropower Plant
A hydropower plant is a plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling water.
9.1.7 Nuclear Power
Nuclear power is the energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.
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Appendix
CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources
Renewable energy resources are those that provide energy that is naturally replenished but limited
in the amount of energy available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar, small hydropower
and wind are examples of renewable resources.
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Appendix
CANADA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030, UPDATE 2014 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
9.2 Abbreviations
Table 30: Abbreviations AC Alternating Current
AECB Atomic Energy Control Board
AESO Alberta Electric System Operator
BP British Petroleum
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
CEA Canadian Electricity Association
Ckm Circuit Kilometer
CNSC Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
DC Direct Current
ecoEII EcoEnergy Innovation Initiative
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FiT Feed-in Tariff
FTA Free Trade Agreement
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GW Gigawatt
GWh Gigawatt hour
HQ Hydro-Québec
IESO Independent Electric System Operator
km Kilometers
kV Kilovolt
kW Kilowatt
MW Megawatt
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
NEB National Energy Board
NGX Natural Gas Exchange
NRCan Natural Resources Canada
ODA Official Development Assistance
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
OPG Ontario Power Generation
PHWR Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors
PV Photovoltaic
T&D Transmission and Distribution
TWh Terawatt hour
WTO World Trade Organization
Source: GlobalData
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