Post on 11-Jul-2015
O Cenário Mundial da Indústria da Galvanização Geral
The World of Zinc and General Galvanizing
Frank E. Goodwin
Director, Technology & Market Dev’t International Zinc Association
• IZA Background • Zinc Statistical Review • General Galvanizing Market
Developments • Zinc: Solving World Problems
• Established – 1991 • 80% of WW zinc production • 60% of world production • Regional presence • 3 Categories:
• 43 Full Members • 110 Affiliate Members • 52 Associate Members
International Zinc Association
IZA Mission
Supporting and advancing zinc products and markets through research, development, technology transfer and communication of the unique attributes that make zinc sustainable and essential for life
Recent Statistics
Galv Sheet1 MT Zn MT HDG MT Zn MT
NAFTA 16,404 492 3,785 246 USA 13,258 398
Canada 1,816 54 Mexico 1,330 40
Latin America 3,448 103 695 45 Europe 29,461 884 7,500 478 CIS 3,882 116 500 33 Asia 55,609 1,668 12,000 780
China 27,139 814 7,000 455 Japan 14,260 428 1,350 88 Korea 8,728 262 1,400 91
India 5,000 264 2,896 125 Oceania, Africa, ME 4,979 149 2,050 133
Total 118,783 3,677 28,726 1,804
1. CRU SteelMonitor
Latin America Markets for Zinc
Source: Brook Hunt, Votorantim Analysis
Zinc Consumption
~ 7% a.a.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Brazil Mexico Argentina Venezuela Others Latin America
EU EUA
2006
2007
2008
2009
Apparent Steel Use per Capita – kg/inhabitant
Steel use has plenty of space to mature …
1,0
0,0 50.000
Argentina
20.000 15.000
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Venezuela
3,5
2,5
Latin America
4,5
10.000 0
USA
UK Turkey
Spain
Russia
Mexico
Japan
Italy
India
Germany
France China
Canada
5.000
0,5
4,0
1,5
5,0
3,0
Brazil
40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000
2,0
45.000
GDP per Capita (US$ PPP)
Zn c
onsu
mpt
ion
per c
apita
(kg)
Source: Brook Hunt, IMF
Zinc Consumption per Capita (2009)
… and so has Zn consumption …
One of zinc’s most important characteristics is its ability to protect steel against corrosion. The life and durability of steel are greatly improved when coated with zinc. No other material can provide such efficient and cost-effective protection for steel.
Source: Votorantim Metais analysis.
Die Casting
General Galvanizing
Continuous Galvanizing
Brass / ZnO / Others
Zinc demand per segment:
Focus for market development !
Galvanizing : key driver for Zn consumption
Source: AMIA , Bloomberg, CAVENEZ
Vehicles Production (units)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500
1,000
1,500
K Units of cars and light trucks
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Brasil* Venezuela México Argentina
* Does not include buses and heavy trucks
The auto industry continues to grow
Chevy Volt
Ford Explorer Chrysler Jeep
Galvanized Autobody Partnership
23 automakers, steelmakers and suppliers working with the Zn industry
Source : Votorantim Analysis, ILAFA IABr, MDIC/SECEX.
990
638 kt
2008
97
(kt)
372
2015e
1.000
750
318
2010e
500
89
2009
343
250
91
352
0 2007
397
125
2006
431
76 Exportation
Importation
Galvanized Plate Trade Balance - Brazil
Galvanized Sheet will be back to balance ?
China Steel Exports
Player Additional capcity Galv steel (kt/yr)
Additional zinc consumption (kt/yr)
Zinc consumption at start up (kt)
Start up year
Arcelor Mittal Vega - Linha 2 350 8 0,3 2010
Arcelor Mittal Vega - Linha 3 500 10 0,3 2015
Usiminas Unigal - Linha 2 550 12 0,5 2011
Usiminas Nova Linha 300 6 0,3 2015
CSN Galvasud 350 7 0,4 2015
Vale Alpa 150 3 0,3 2014
Gerdau Cotia 30 0,9 0,2 2012
ArcelorMittal Longos-Nordeste 60 1,5 0,1 2014
Morlan 10 0,2 0,1 2014
TOTAL CGG 2300 49 2,5
Fonte: Análises - Comercial VMZ.
Planned Investments - CGG
Flat
Pro
duct
s Lo
ng
ME4%
Agro- Neg.12%
INDÚST.7%
C. CIVIL25%
AUTO38%
L. BRANCA14%
Demand Drivers
Segment Civil Constr. Cars White
Goods Agro Bus.
Flat products X X X
Long products X X
Zinc demand within CGG
Continuous Galvanizing
CSN 50%
USIMINAS 28%
ARMCO 1%
ARCELORMITTAL Vega
21%
ARCELORMITTAL Longos
56%
GERDAU 26%
MACCAFERRI 3%
MORLAN
15%
G
alva
nize
d st
eel p
rodu
ctio
n ca
paci
ty
Flat
pro
duct
s Lo
ng p
rodu
cts
Fonte: Análises - Comercial VMZ.
VALE (ALPA)
3%
CSN 36%
USIMINAS
31%
ARMCO 1%
ARCELORMITTAL Vega
30%
2010
2.720 kt/yr 4.770 kt/yr
ARCELORMITTAL Longos
57%
GERDAU 27%
MACCAFERRI 3%
MORLAN
13%
550 kt/yr 650 kt/yr
+75%
+18%
Expected growth within flat products is 75% in the next 5 years ...
2015
2006
1.854
1.778
(kt)
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
3.167
76
2015e
5.076
4.758
318
2010f
2.300
867
2009
2.182
1.830
352
2008
2.490
2.147
343
2007
2.084
1.959
125 +985
National Production
Imports
(kt)
750
500
250
1.000
0
867
2015e
372 318
2010f
87
2009
91
352
2008
97
343
2007
397
125
2006
431
76
+515 kt
Exports
Imports
Galvanized Strips Consumption - Brazil
Galvanized Strips Trade Balance - Brazil
Sources: VMZ analysis, IABr, MDIC/SECEX.
Galvanized Steel Strips
Installed capacity versus Brazilian demand for continuous galvanzied coil (CGG)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimated demand
Planned capacity
(kt) 6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
Fonte: Análises - Comercial VMZ.
Planned additional capacity should meet increased demand
Location of the Main Hot-Dip Galvanizers
Source: Analysis Marketing VMZ.
* Players that galvanize over 3 kt of steel per year
Source: Analysis Marketing VMZ.
* Players that galvanize over 3 kt of steel per year
Location of the Main Hot-Dip Galvanizers
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Paraná
São Paulo RJ
Minas Gerais
Espírito Santo Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
General Galvanizing- GG
3,3
2,4
3,1
set-09
ago-09
3,0
jul-09
2,9
jun-09
2,8 2,7
mar-09
mai-09
abr-09
3,4 4
3
3,6
out-09
1
2
0
3,3
2010e dez-09
3,1
nov-09
3,1
fev-09
2,3
jan-09
2,5
dez-08
2,6
nov-08
3,4
out-08
set-08
3,8 3,8 3,9
ago-08
5
(kt/m)
2007
5,0
jul-08
3,9
1H-08
+30%
-48%
+13%
+11%
7%Others
13%
Pipes
14%
19%
Electrical Hardwares 46%
Transmission Towers
Metallic Structures
5%
Electrical Hardwares 15%
Pipes 17%
Others
Transmission Towers
14%
Metallic Structures
49%
Brazilian Market Segmentation 2007 2010
Demand – Metallic Zn Monthly Brazilian Market
Source: Votorantim Metais analysis.
Occupation 89% 11%
2010 ~ 600 kt/y
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(kt)
Estimated Demand
Announced Capacity 110 kt
Opportunity Gap
Installed Capacity versus Galvanized Steel Demand (GG)
Annouced Expansions (kt/y of galvanized steel)
Present Capacity 600
Announced Investments +88
Estimated Capacity in 2013 688 +15%
General Galvanizing- More Capacity Needed
Source: Votorantim Metais analysis.
HDG Steel Production Capacity
Eletroferragens
17% Tubos
Estruturas Metálicas
9%
Torres de Transmissão
29%
8%
Outros (Pequenos)
38%
2010 = 600 kt 2015 = 745 kt
+24%
Tubos
Estruturas Metálicas
31%
Torres de Transmissão
13% Eletroferragens
Outros (Pequenos)
42%
6% 7%
Source: Analysis Marketing VMZ.
Forecasted Expansions (kt/y of galvanized steel)
Present Capacity 600
Forecasted Investments +145
Estimated Capacity 2015 745 +24%
General Galvanizing
Brazilian Market Segmentation
• Global Programs – -Zn Nutrition – -Zn Corrosion Protection – -Diecastings – -Oxides – -Brass
“Grow and protect the world markets for zinc"
International Zinc Association Technology and Market
Development
•Regional Programs -China, India, Latin America, Europe, North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa, Russia
IZA’s Global Development Priorities General Galvanizing
• Developed World: Sustainability, Life Cycle Cost, Life Cycle Assessment, LEED, Increased Use of High Strength Steels, Rebar
• Developing World: Raise awareness of designers and specifiers, develop codes and standards, raise quality and capacity of local HDG industry, Rebar
• Common Tools: Interactive Training Tool, LCI/LCA tools, Technical Information on Corrosion, Design, Painting of HDG
IZA’s Global Development Efforts
• Interactive Training Tool • Steel Foresight Program • Galvanized Rebar • Colored Zn
Interactive General Galvanizing Computer Based Training Tool
• Developed during $1.5M China HDG program with Common Fund for Commodities
• Available in Chinese, English, Spanish and French • Training Tool available to regional galvanizing
associations
• Operators’ course available at www.galvtrainingcourse.com
• Managers’ guidance document available at www.zinc-resource.org
Training Tool Content
The complete galvanizing process including:
• Goods receiving & materials handling • Jigging • Degreasing • Acid Pickling • Fluxing • Galvanizing • Passivation
Pre-work
ZC-31 IZA-EGGA “Steel Foresight” Program
• Objective: Determine trends for structural steel compositions and processing that are expected to influence how these steels will be processed during general galvanizing
ZC-31 Background
Preparation of Guidance Document on the Effect of General Galvanizing on Mechanical Properties of Structural Steels
•Tested a variety of steel grades before and after cold working, then subsequently galvanized
Grades sourced by AGA:
•A36 •A572 Grades 50 and 65
Grades Sourced by UKGA: •BS EN10025-2:2004 Grades S275 and S355 •BS EN10028-3:2003, Grade P460
Results of Testing UK Steels
ZC-31 Questions
• Are the process routes used for making new grades of “lean” high strength structural steels compatible with general galvanizing practice? If not, what needs to be done?
• One expected issue: • “Martensite start” (transformation)
temperature is typically near the galvanizing temperature in these steels – required cooling rates can be changed by manipulating steel compositions – how will this influence specifications?
Galvanized Rebar for Concrete
• Global resource at www.galvanizedrebar.com • Case studies from USA, Singapore, Australia,
Bermuda • “100-year bridge” program now concluding, shows
good results
World’s largest sundial Singleton NSW Australia 30 m3 concrete, 2.5 T HDG rebar
Longbird Bridge, Bermuda 58 years of protection by HDG rebar
New Continuous Processing Technology
Rebar and Profiles
Jet wiping of Zn-12%Al profile at Onesteel, Newcastle, Australia using new dry flux technology
Continuous rebar coating at Xiamen Newsteel, China with Zn-0.2%Al
Colored Zinc
• Research proposal being developed to secure EUR 1.5M from EU
• In-kind participation with European galvanizers
Colored bicycles at Kokkola Zn, Finland
Regional Development Priorities
• China • India • Russia • Asia/Pacific • South Africa • (Latin America, NAFTA and Europe to be covered by
other speakers)
• Convince galvanizing to designers, specifiers, decision-makers on advantages of HDG for corrosion protection via seminars, publications, internet tools, alliances with professional and industry associations
• Educate students: the decision-makers of the future • Assist in national standards development
China: Current key projects
Construction • Close partnership with
CSCS • Speaking at key
conferences • Joint Seminar – November
2011Market size > 0.5m tonnes zinc per year
• Over 75% of large bridge projects in China
• Standards development
Galvanized Rebar • Market potential > 200 000
tonnes zinc per year • New product under
development with Industrial partner
• Centres of excellence identified
China Railways
•Stimulus package of over $1 trillion in place •30% went to railway development •All catenary systems will now be HDG •Likely 16 million tons HDG, 1 million tons Zn •Greatest market potential in freight lines
Freight Lines High Speed Lines
11
12 32 5 6
30 68 87 13
15 25
12
214 32
95
9 8
23`
17
63 11
6 6
7 11
3 1
2
HDG jobbing- China 580kt Zn
32 5 6 30 68
236
449
85
HDG jobbing- China 580kt Zn
India Zinc & Steel Tonnage Growth
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-0940
50
60
04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09
Zinc Steel (million tons)
India Infrastructure Investments 11th Five Year Plan (2007 – 12)
Sector Rs (Crores)
USD $Billion
Power 666,525 136.3
Telecom 258,439 53
Highways 314,152 64.4
Ports 87,995 18
Aviation 30,968 6.3
1,358,079 278
Source: Planning Commission
Expanding Galvanizing Markets - India
High Mast Lighting Column
Number of Russian HDG plants increasing
05
1015202530354045
1996 1998 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
55 plants in 2011
Asia-Pacific (Indonesia, Singapore, Australia, Vietnam, Philippines,
Indonesia) Infrastructure seminars for government & private sectors Seminars at universities
85% of growth in Zn usage will be growth in HDG usage Resources developed: CFC Training Tool, www.galvanizingasia.com website, “World of Galvanizing” CD, “Galvanize” brochure 2/year, all with regional case studies
Asia-Pacific (continued)
Larger inside diameter saves 50% of pumping costs
South African Development “Lula” Pipe (“easy” in Zulu)
114 mm HDG 104 mm PVC
•Bell-shape instead of threaded couplings •Sized to PVC standards, interchangeable with PVC pipe and fittings •No cradles or expansion joints needed, only thrust blocks
Zinc Nutrient Initiative
• Demonstration crop trials • Communication activities • Country-based marketing
Approach
Sichuan, China (2 locations):
rice grain yield increase = 20%
Success in China
• IZA and China’s Ministry of Agriculture have launched joint zinc fertilizer program • End result: government recommendation for use of
zinc in fertilizers…a market-changing event
• Plus over 400,000 field agents to help “recommend”
• Zinc fertilizer represents huge market potential which is now in site:
- China… 300,000 tpy Zn - India… 200,000 tpy Zn - Brazil…. 60,000 tpy Zn
• ZNI activities already having an impact
• Benefits include increased food,
nutrition, health, economics and zinc consumption
• One third of world’s population is at risk of zinc
deficiency
• 800,000 people of all ages estimated to die annually – WHO
• 450,000 children under the age of five die annually - Lancet
Zinc Deficiency: Global Issue
Source: Bryce J. et al., Lancet 2005
Global Causes of Under 5 Child Deaths
18% of infant deaths are caused by Diarrhea, compared to 3% by AIDS!
Malaria8% Measles
4%
Diarrhea18%
HIV/AIDS3%
Neonatal36%
Other10%
Injuries3%
Pneumonia18%
Effective Interventions with Zinc
20mg Zinc and ORS during 10-14 days to treat diarrhea Costs: US$ 0.50 Zinc-containing MNPs for treatment and prevention of malnutrition (“hidden hunger”) Costs: US$ 2 per child per year
Zinc Deficiency is Curable
The World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF, and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group (IZiNCG) proved beyond doubt the link between zinc deficiency and child mortality.
• Partnership program launched with UNICEF
• Zinc Industry contributing $3 million over 3 years
• Programs started in Nepal & Peru
Zinc Saves Kids
www.ZincSavesKids.org
First Year Highlights Peru
• Ministry of Health agreed to include zinc supplementation for diarrhea treatment in national regulations
• Field study on effects of zinc
• Anaemia reduced by 18%
• Regions: Lima, Cusco, Ayacucho, Huancavelica, Apurimac
• Good growth in galvanizing especially in Brazil
• Some high potential General Galvanizing Market Developments
• Zinc: It is Solving some World Problems
Summary