Post on 09-Jul-2020
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des
European gas production (mcm/d)
MIN-MAX 5 Year 5 Y Average 2018 2019
Restricted 19 June 2018
Infrastructure today and after 2020New capacity will reduce price spikes and add flexibility
11 | Document Title
Restricted 19 June 2018
Nord Stream 2 conclusions and implications
• Nord Stream 2 will most probably not be in operation as of 1 Jan 2020.
• We believe that transit arrangement (via Ukraine) will be negotiated by the end of 2019: most likely - short term- and tariff
entry-exit based
• In case of no transit arrangement: it could lead to supply interruptions
• Central and South East European countries will be affected: price increase, additional gas flow form NWE and LNG
• Price effect : PSV will be in premium vs NCG and NCG will be traded with premium vs TTF if Italy and AU start pulling
more gas from Western Europe.
• When NS2 in operation: German hubs will become a large transit and offtake hub, less volatile
• High competition from the East and lower prices in Germany
• Ukraine route might be required, but depends on European gas demand
12 | Document Title Sources: Naftogaz, Tgazprom and Euionor Analysis
00
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$/MMBtu
Japan - Korea Spot LNG Asia LNG Contract
NBP spot (UK) Henry Hub (US)
HH SRMC EU TTF spot
JKM Swaps
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Nord Amerikabcm
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Europabcm
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Asiabcm