Transcript of Gabriel Söderberg, Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen gabriel.soderberg@ekhist.uu.se.
- Slide 1
- Gabriel Sderberg, Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen
gabriel.soderberg@ekhist.uu.se
- Slide 2
- Please interrupt for questions and comments! Economic thinking
relating to technology Dominant theme: optimism versus
pessimism
- Slide 3
- Slide 4
- William Godwin 1756-1836 Marquis de Condorcet 1743-1794
- Slide 5
- Application of reason on the production process: A smaller
portion of ground will then be made to produce a proportion of
provisions of higher value or greater utility; a greater quantity
of enjoyment will be produced with smaller expense of consumption;
the same manufactured or artificial commodity will be produced at a
smaller expense of raw materials, or will be stronger and more
durable. Mankind heading for a paradise that her reason has created
for her Condorcet, 1794
- Slide 6
- Thomas Malthus 1766-1834David Ricardo 1772-1823
- Slide 7
- Humans must have food + food supply increases slowly + humans
cannot control their reproduction = Population will grow faster
than food supply Increased food supply increased population return
of misery optimists are wrong Constraining factor: agricultural
technology
- Slide 8
- Growth not possible in the long run stationary state
Diminishing return of the soil more expensive food higher wages
less profits less investments end of growth Two ways to counter
this: technology and free trade - technology not to be trusted
freetrade as ideal partly explained by technology pessimism!!
- Slide 9
- Karl Marx, 1818-1883
- Slide 10
- History is driven by the contradiction of technology and
property rights Technology is developed in a given social structure
technology advances beyond the constraints of societys structure,
the structure becomes obsolete and a hindrance for further
development society changes The capitalist system is historys most
efficient driver of technological development recurring crises
Socialism occurs after technology has made Capitalism obsolete
- Slide 11
- The bourgeoisie, during its rule of scarce one hundred years,
has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than
have all preceding generations together. Subjection of Natures
forces to man, machinery, application of chemistry to industry and
agriculture, steam- navigation, railways, electric telegraphs,
clearing of whole continents for cultivation, canalization of
rivers, whole populations conjured out of the ground what earlier
century had even a presentiment that such productive forces
slumbered in the lap of social labour?. The Communist Manifesto1848
The production capacity that is at mankinds disposal is
unmeasurable, something infinite. The fertility of the Earth can
through the application of capital, labor and science be extended
into infinity. Engels attacking Malthus.
- Slide 12
- The Neo-Classical Revolution, analysis inspired by the
mechanics of physics Equilibrium central concept, advanced
mathematical nomenclature shift of focus from grand patterns of
development to equilibrium on a given market Many engineers
involved
- Slide 13
- Slide 14
- Joseph Schumpeter 1883-1950
- Slide 15
- Technological development the driving force in economic growth:
Creative Destruction the fundamental impulse that sets and keeps
the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers goods,
the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets,
the new forces of industrial organization that capitalist
enterprise creates Schumpeter 1942 Carried out by entrepreneurs
Critique against the Neoclassics: equilibrium analys fails to grasp
the most important thing about economics
- Slide 16
- Separation of micro and macro economics, growth falls under
macro Time of great optimism, reduction of inequality, increase in
general welfare for the masses, large and stable economic growth
Technology and science widely accepted as the driving force
- Slide 17
- Simon Kuznets 1901-1985Robert Solow 1924-
- Slide 18
- The reason for economic growth is:the vast increase in the
stock of useful knowledgethe underlying capacity of the knowledge
transmitted to control production processes, the emergence of
experimental science and the empirical outlook which, building upon
past attainments of mankind, provided the indispensible basis for
modern economic growth Kuznets 1965
- Slide 19
- The Solow model (1956): Y=A+K+L A=Y-K-L technological
development is the thing left! The most important factor, but is
left unexplained in the model! Technological development is taken
for granted, a gift from public funding of science
- Slide 20
- The Rigoletti Conference 1955: politicians, representatives of
business and science the state important to support science and new
technology The transformation of society is still far from
completed. Actually the greatest and most inspiring tasks in the
strivings to ensure the social and cultural liberation of mankind
remains...At the same time we approach a new technological
transformation, that eventually will change totally the conditions
of mankind. This transformation can give unimaginable opportunities
for the building of a constructive society. The perspectives opened
up by this are stimulating and suggestive to our imagination. Olof
Palme 1956
- Slide 21
- 1970s: oil crisis, stagnant growth, ideological and theoretical
shift Crisis of values: growth questioned, environmental movement
skeptical about eternal growth
- Slide 22
- Club of Rome founded 1968 Limits to Growth (1972) population
growth and consumption needs to be reduced; sells in 12 million
copies, in 30 languages Solows Criticism: "The authors load their
case by letting some things grow exponentially and others not.
Population, capital and pollution grow exponentially in all models,
but technologies for expanding resources and controlling pollution
are permitted to grow, if at all, only in discrete
increments."
- Slide 23
- Increased interest in the roots of growth how is the right
technology, the right knowledge created? Endogenous growth theories
The innovation school becomes stronger, embraced by national
governments and OECD
- Slide 24
- VINNOVA, Verket fr innovationssystem, is a government
organization with the purpose to increase growth and wealth in the
entire nation. 2 billion kr in budget, 200 employees Our special
area of responsibility is innovations connectd to research and
development that is original, successful products, services or
processes with a scientific basis. Entrepreneurship is a dynamic
and social process, where individualsidentifies possibilities and
do something with them in order to reshape ideas to practical and
goal-oriented activities in social, cultural or economical
contexts. "- Vinnova do something with them????