Post on 28-May-2022
1
FINANCIAL UPDATE
Board of Supervisors May 10, 2011
2
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Part I– State and National Economic Outlook and Update; State and Federal Budget Impacts
Part II– Financial Plan Update
Part III - Discussion
3
PART I – STATE AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND BUDGET IMPACTS UPDATE
4
STATE AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
5
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
National Economy and OutlookGDP
Employment
Outlook
6
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
National Economy - CurrentFinancial Crisis Averted
Recession Ended
Slow Recovery in Consumer Spending
Continuing Drags on Growth
7
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
US REAL GDP % Change Annualized
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
8
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
National Outlook – Near TermContinuing Drags on Economy
International Issues
US Domestic Demand
Continuing Uncertainty
Slow Recovery in Consumer Spending
End of Quantitative Easing
9
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
National Outlook – Long TermRisks to US Competitiveness
Labor Force Skills
Federal Deficits
Tax Levels
Asian Growth and Development
Governance & Culture
10
STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Arizona Economy and OutlookGDP
Employment
Outlook
11
STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Arizona Economy - CurrentSlow National Improvement
Tourism Recovering
Slow Consumer Spending Recovery
Continuing Housing Drag
12
STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
AZ GDP Amounts ($ millions)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
Constructio
All I d t i
Manufacturing
13
STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Arizona Employment (000's)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Total
Construction
Private
14
STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Arizona Outlook – Near TermContinuing Drags on Economy
US Domestic Demand
Continuing Uncertainty – Indecision
Continuing Housing Drag
Slow Consumer Spending Recovery
15
STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Arizona Outlook – Long TermRisks to AZ Competitiveness
Labor Force Skills
Tax and Regulatory Structures
California’s Decline
Asian Growth and Development
16
COCONINO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Coconino Economy and OutlookEmployment
Outlook
Opportunities
17
STATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Coconino Employment (000's)
50
55
60
65
70
75
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*0
2
4
6
8
10
Total
Construction
18
COCONINO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Coconino County Outlook Linked to Arizona’s Prospects
Satellite to Phoenix Metro
Fundamentally Less Volatile
Strong Fundamentals – With Risks
19
COCONINO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
County Outlook – Near TermGrowth from “New Normal” Base
Potential for Reliable Trends
Likely Returning to 90’s Pattern
More Uncertainty than Certainty
20
COCONINO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
County Outlook –Long TermStrong Fundamentals
Location
Quality of Life
But, With RisksLabor Force Skills
Business Climate – Tax / Regulation
21
COCONINO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Coconino County Opportunities National Caliber University
Desirable Location
Effective Governments
22
COCONINO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Alliance Tax Study Review of Combined Local Taxes
Foundation for Discussions
Foundation for Decisions
Community Priorities
23
STATE AND FEDERAL BUDGET IMPACTS
24
FY 2012 BUDGET
AZ Legislature and Governor Passed Budget Making $1.1 Billion in Cuts
Federal Assistance and Maintenance of Efforts Protection Eliminated Reduced Amount of Individuals on AHCCS Rolls
K-12, Universities, Community Colleges Impacted
25
FY 2012 BUDGET IMPACTS
Initial Budget Passed by the Senate Included: Shift of Prisoners
HURF Shifts (Shift to DPS/Shift to MVD)
Fill the Gap Sweeps
Final Budget Passed Signed by the Governor Included: $93 million in Cuts to Counties
26
FY 2012 STATE BUDGET
$1,837,013$93.40 million(Includes items not mentioned above)
FY 2012 Grand Total
$50,405$7.0 million50% of Sexually Violent Persons Costs In State Hospital
$235,000 (Based on FY 09 and FY 10 State Funding)
N / ALake Enforcement / Boating Safety Fund
$65,594$1.3 millionReduce State Share of JP Salaries
$317,383$5.17 million100% of Rural Restoration to Competency Costs in State Hospital
$550,035$7.6 millionCounty Assistance Fund 10% Reduction*
$618,596$20.9 millionHURF
Coconino County CostTotal Statewide Impact to Counties
27
FY 2013/FY 2014
Deficit Projected at $612 Million for FY 2013
FY 2014 - Deficit Projected at $1.12 Billion End of Statewide Sales Tax
Unclear on How State Recovery Will Impact Deficit for FY 2014
Unclear How State Will Address Deficits for FY 2013 and FY 2014
28
BUDGET THREATS
State Shared Revenue Diversion
Shift of State Prisoners
Forced Fund Transfers ALTCS, VLT, HURF, etc.
Secondary Property Tax Caps Public Health, Library, Flood Control
Shift of State Programs
29
FEDERAL ISSUES
Congress Passed Continuing Resolution for the Rest of Fiscal Year
Budget Resolution for FY 2012 and Beyond Unknown Impacts of Medicaid Changes on the
State of Arizona and Impact on Counties
30
Federal Issues
Payment in Lieu of Taxes Fully Funded for FY 2012 Full Funding Expires September 30, 2012
Unknown Cuts in the FY 2012 Budget Cuts to Community Services Block Grants,
Department of Justice Grants, Community Development Block Grants, Workforce Investment Funding
31
SECURE RURAL SCHOOLS
SRS Reauthorization Expires September 30, 2011 County Working with NACo and Partnership for
Rural America on Reauthorization President’s Budget for FY 2012 includes a
reauthorization of Secure Rural Schools. The President’s budget for fiscal year 2012 proposes a
five year extension of SRS, calling for 2012 to be funded at same level as 2011 and then ramping down payments over the next four years (decrease of 20% in 2013, 10% in 2014, 25% in 2015 and a final 25% in 2016).
32
SECURE RURAL SCHOOLS
House Republicans, led by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, have proposed a budget that establishes a reserve fund for Secure Rural Schools and PILT, as long as such funding does not increase the federal deficit;
Congressional leaders from throughout the country have voiced their support for SRS, including over 25 House members and members of Arizona’s Congressional delegation who called for a ten-year renewal.
33
PART II – FINANCIAL PLAN UPDATE
34
CONCEPTUAL LONG-TERM PLAN TO ADDRESS NEEDS
Global View
Overlapping Needs; All Pieces Need to Go Together
Consider Individual Areas in Larger Picture
Con in One Area May Be Pro/Positive Overall
Overview
35
CONSIDERATIONS
Community Member’s Requests for Plan That Addresses All Needs (not added incrementally) Political Environment & Elections Partnerships With Other Agencies &
Organizations (Alliance for 21st Century) Economic Environment – Local, State and
National
36
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
Community Tax Capacity Alliance Partnership Sponsoring Study
Tax Capacity of Citizenry
Declining Assessed Values Impact on Secondary Taxes
Incremental Tax Increases vs Overall Long Term Multi-Year Plan
37
FINANCIAL PLAN FOUNDATION KEY ELEMENTS
10 Year Plans for All Major Funds
Recessionary Revenue Model
Align Expenditures to Available Revenues
Prioritize County-Wide Mission Critical Areas• Personnel and Operational Infrastructure
Match Critical Programs to Highly Reliable Revenues to Protect Essential Services
Link One-Time, Deferrable Spending to Less Reliable Revenue
Maintain Adequate Reserves including Revenue Smoothing Reserve
Long Term PerspectiveFinancial Independence – Develop New Revenue Sources
Avoid Dependency on Temporary/Cyclical Revenues
Seek Relief from Mandates
Prudent Growth in Programs, FTEs and Recurring Expenditures
Continuous Improvement and ManagementCost containment opportunities through preventative efforts, efficiencies and use of technology
Sustainability
Emphasis on Essential Programs and People
Strategic Budget Process• Prioritize Core/Essential Services & Programs
• Allocate Resources based on Priorities
• Evaluate Mandates/Legally Required Programs
3 Prong Approach to Address Economic Impacts, Funding Shortfalls & Cost Shifts • Review and Reduce Expenditures and Service Levels
• Strategic Use of Reserves
• Develop Additional Revenue
38
THE GREAT RECESSION:WHAT WORKED?
Financial Plan Instrumental in County’s Ability to Weather the Impacts of Downturn
Reserves Available to Smooth Revenue
Emergency Reserves for 2010 & 2011 Emergencies
Recessionary Revenue Model (Lesson Learned)
Benefit but Now Must Adjust to “New Normal”
3 Prong Approach Compensation Plan Components Implemented
Resulted in Lower Turnover, Improved Retention
39
THE GREAT RECESSION:THINGS PUT ON HOLD
Compensation Plan – Implementation of Next Phases
Facilities Master Plan
Information Technology Strategic Plan
Major Capital Projects and Purchases
No New Programs and/or Services
40
LESSONS LEARNED: MAJOR REVENUE FORECASTING
$7,000,000$9,000,000
$11,000,000$13,000,000$15,000,000$17,000,000$19,000,000
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
A B C Actual Population + CPI Projected
Pop + CPI = 3.95%
Actual = 4.18%
Pop + CPI = 4.37%
Actual = 5.71%
Pop + CPI = 4.35%
Actual = -6.96%
3.95%
84%
85%
41
LESSONS LEARNED: MAJOR EXPENDITURE BUDGETING
Traditional Budgeting
$-
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
$1,000.00
Program A Program B Program C Total
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
•Guaranteed base + incremental increases
•Operating costs increased with no change in service levels
•Overall budget increases
•Prioritization of services could result in some program increases and some decreases
•Service level changes needed
•Overall budget increases unsustainable
New Normal
$-
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
Program A Program B Program C Total
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
42
EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT TRENDS
Major Revenues – Signs of Improvement Year Over Year But Still Some Uncertainty in Short Term Continuing Cuts/Cost Shifts From State and
Feds To Pass Deficits To Local Gov’ts Health Insurance & Retirement Contribution
Increases (expenditure growth % higher than revenue growth %)
Increasingly Competitive Labor Market Declining Assessed Values
43
WHAT CHALLENGES DO WE FACE?
“Existing, ongoing (recurring) budget areas that are under funding pressure eg: HURF New, ongoing (recurring) program area that
will require funding eg: Restoration to Compentency Existing, one time budget areas that are
under funding pressure eg: Flood Control New one time, program area that will
require funding eg: Assessor Property Valuation System (Tyler Software Purchase)
44
CURRENT FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT
Leakage – State and Federal Cuts, Sweeps and Shifts
Increased Demand for Services State - Transparency Requirements
Federal – Health Care Reform Requirements - W-2 Health Care Coverage Reporting
New “Reset” Economy
Increasingly Competitive Labor Market Challenges in Replacing/Filling Positions
45
CURRENT FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT
Grant Funding More Competitive vs Specific Allotments (eg. Health, Emergency Services)
State and Federal Deficits – Solutions Will Impact Local Government
Expenditure Growth Faster than Revenue Growth – Ongoing in All Funds Current Impacts Can Accelerate
46
JAIL DISTRICT EXAMPLE
$10,000,000$11,000,000$12,000,000$13,000,000$14,000,000$15,000,000$16,000,000$17,000,000$18,000,000$19,000,000$20,000,000
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Total Revenues Total Expenditures
Tax
Increase
Prisoner
Shift
A
B
A: Debt retired, expenditure decrease
B: Facility expansion
47
AREAS UNDER FUNDING PRESSURE
MAJOR FUNDS
General Fund
HURF – Public Works
County Parks and Open Space – Parks & Recreation
Flood Control
Public Health Services District
Jail District
48
AREAS UNDER FUNDING PRESSURE
MISSION CRITICAL
OPERATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Compensation Plan
Facilities Repair and Replacement
Information Technology Repair and Replacement
49
MAJOR FUND: GENERAL
Short and Long Term Concerns Budget Cuts Past 2 Years
Based more on available capacity than strategic program changes many not sustainable and could be reinstated?
Program Service Delivery Impacted
R & R Projects Postponed
CPOS expiration; shortfall in operations and maintenance staff funding in FY13
State Funding Cuts & Shifts; Federal Impacts of SRS and PILT Full Funding Reauthorizations
50
MAJOR FUND: HIGHWAY USERS REVENUE - PUBLIC WORKS
Short and Long Term Concerns Highway Funding (HURF, SRS, VLT, Cost Share
Contracts) All At Risk
Service Levels Will Be Impacted Likely Service Reductions Needed
Evaluate Discretionary Non-Mandated Programs
Some Current Service Levels Inconsistent
Service Levels Not Maintained - eg. Roads Deterioration Due to Lack of Maintenance
Replacement Required Earlier When Not Maintained
51
MAJOR FUND: COUNTY PARKS AND OPEN SPACE - PARKS AND RECREATION
Short and Long Term Concerns CPOS Funding Expires in September, 2014
(FY15) CPOS Funding Operations and Maintenance
Positions; $3M exhausted in FY12 Current Parks Maintained With “One-Time”
Funding Addition of Parks and Open Space has
Increased Operating and Maintenance Costs
52
MAJOR FUND: FLOOD CONTROL
Short and Long Term Concerns Unfunded Response to Annual Ongoing Summer
Flooding Recurring Cost of Safety, Property Protection and
Debris Removal Mitigation Projects – Federal and State Grant Funds
Require Cost Share; Very Limited Funding County-Wide Construction Projects – Limited Funding
for Many Needs Adequate Funding Level Not Known – Project
Identification Process in Progress Reimbursement Basis for Response & Mitigation Costs
53
MAJOR FUND: PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES DISTRICT
Short and Long Term Concerns
Declining assessed value (full cash) impacts revenue (secondary tax)
State Mandated Costs Will Continue to Increase County % of Cost Share and Usage Likely to Increase
Expenditure Growth Exceeds Revenue Growth
Grant Revenue – Grants Becoming Competitive
Federal/State Budget cuts/cost shifts/sweeps
54
MAJOR FUND: JAIL DISTRICT
Short and Long Term Concerns
Department of Corrections Prisoner Shift Facility Capacity
Loss of Bed Rental Revenue
Expenditure Growth Faster Than Revenue Growth
No Permanent Revenue Fixes
55
MISSION CRITICAL: COMPENSATION
Short and Long Term Concerns
No Merit Increases In 3 Years to Help Balance Budget
41% of Positions Under Market; Some 30% Below
HAY Study Identified Positions Needing Reclassification– Currently No Funding To Correct
Consequence of Not Funding = Increase In Turnover Costs
Impacts All Funds
56
MISSION CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: FACILITIES
Short and Long Term Concerns Status Quo Option Results in Higher Cost in
General Fund Assets Continue to Deteriorate; Expensive Failures
Possible Scenario #2 with Information Technology Strategic
Plan Compliments Bonds Issued, Tax In Place and Construction – 2 years
after Voter Approval
Higher Turnover Cost and Lower Morale Impacts All Funds
57
MISSION CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Short and Long Term Concerns Technology Is Essential To Everyday Work Major Computer Replacement Programs – Underfunded Personal Computers and Servers
Network and Smartphones County-Wide Licensing Compliance for existing software
applications Enterprise Systems Optimizing Technology Use – Video/Teleconferencing for
Training, Meetings Impacts All Funds
58
MAJOR FUND 10 YEAR PLAN GRAPHS
PHSD
$9,000,000$9,500,000
$10,000,000$10,500,000$11,000,000$11,500,000$12,000,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Total Revenues Total Expenditures
HURF
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
Total Revenues Total Expenditures
Fund balance deficit
Jail District
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
$18,000,000
$20,000,000
$22,000,000
$24,000,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Total Revenues Total Expenditures
General Fund
$50,000,000
$55,000,000
$60,000,000
$65,000,000
$70,000,000
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
Total Revenues Total Expenditures
59
MAJOR FUND 10 YEAR PLAN GRAPHS
CPOS
$-$1,000,000$2,000,000$3,000,000$4,000,000$5,000,000$6,000,000$7,000,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Total Revenue Total Uses of Funds
$33 million collected
Flood Control
$-
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Total Revenues Total Expenditures
Mitigation match unknown
60
COMBINED 10 YEAR PLANS
5-Year Fund Balance Projections
$-
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
HURF
General Fund
CPOS
Flood Control
PHSD
Jail
HURF: Fund balance deficit in FY16
General Fund: Spend unreserved fund balance; no R&R or ITSP
CPOS: Collect $33 million by FY14
Flood Control: Fund balance deficit in FY15???
61
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
62
NEW TIMES = CHANGE APPROACH
Costs in All County Funds Increase Over Time Expenditures Grow Faster than Revenues
Status Quo Does Not Address Issues Need to Change How We Do Business (Services Provided
and Level of Services)
Normal Revenue Growth Not Enough to Sustain Current Service and Program Levels and Needs
Only Increasing Tax Revenue Will Not Solve Problems
In Future, Cannot Meet All Needs
63
CRITICAL DECISIONS NEEDED
Prioritize Core County Services & Staffing and Set Appropriate Service Level (level of service in programs) Based On: Available Future Resources
AND
Possible New Revenue Sources Based on Essential County Programs
AND
Mandate Re-evaluation – Legislative and Self Imposed
64
CONSIDERATION GOING FORWARD: ESSENTIAL COUNTY PROGRAM FOCUS
Public Safety
Public Health
Courts and Criminal Justice
Roads
Government Support Services: Assessor Treasurer Recorder County Attorney
Focus Across All Programs and Funds:
Maintain Current Assets
Cost Efficiency Into the Future, not Short-Sighted “Windfalls”
65
CONSIDERATIONS GOING FORWARD
Workforce Challenges
Competitive Compensation Plan
Proactive approach as labor market recovers; not reactionary; learn from past
Maintain a Current Compensation Plan Reduce FTEs As Needed to Fund Adjustment
Employee Training
Tools and Workspace
66
CONSIDERATIONS GOING FORWARD
Workforce Challenges – Continued
Retention and Recruitment
Cost of Turnover is High – Keep Employees Who Are Trained and Performing Well
Be Competitive in the Market – Ability to Recruit
67
SOLUTIONS: TOOLS IN OUR TOOLBOX
3 Prong Approach Revenue Opportunities
Reduce Programs/Services Costs
Reserves
Legislative Relief (Adds to 3 Prong Approach)Mandates and Required Programs
Revenue Opportunities
68
REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES
Prong #1
69
REVENUE INCREASE EXAMPLES
Recurring:1/10th Cent Sales Tax $2.4 million per year$0.10 Secondary Property Tax $1.7 million per year (Depends on District
Boundaries)
One-Time:$0.10 Secondary Property Tax $1.7 million per yr = about $12M Bond, 10 yrs$0.10 Secondary Property Tax $1.7 million per yr = about $25M Bond, 20 yrs
70
REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES
HANDOUT #1 – Revenue Options by Fund and Mission Critical Area
71
OTHER CONSTRAINTS
Timing Issues Tax Increases – November Election in Even Years Other Elections Community Tax Capacity – Other Jurisdictions
Tax Rate or amount limits Rates Subject to Caps and Limits
Use limitations (flexibility) Special Districts Debt Issues – Secondary Property Tax for Capital
Only
72
REDUCE PROGRAMS AND SERVICE COSTS
Prong #2
73
SERVICE/PROGRAM REDUCTIONS
Core Services Identified Based on Priority/Essential Function in Each Major Fund
Service Cuts to Those Major Funds Under Pressure
Determine Discretionary Programs Reduce or Eliminate Consideration of Private Sector Alternatives Evaluate Subsidies
Level of Service for Mandates Determine Highest Priorities – Citizens, Board of
Supervisors, County Manager, Elected Officials/Appointed Directors
74
SERVICE/PROGRAM REDUCTIONS
Cost Reductions Must Be a Part of The Solutions
Some Major Revenue Funds Do Not Have Additional Options
Options Are Limited and/or Not Adequate
Example: General Fund Has More Needs than Resources and Limited Readily Available Revenue Options Use of General Fund Resources Not Restricted
Other Funds Seek Backfill Funding from General Fund
75
USE OF RESERVES
Prong #3
76
USE OF RESERVES
Revenue Smoothing Reserves Available
Reserves Available to Draw on Until “New Reality”Picture Clearer
Many Unknowns Until Return to “Normal” May Never Return to “Normal”
Took Time to Build; Used in Past 3 Years 10 Years to Build/Save; Need to Replenish
Use in FY 12 To Get To Decision Points Provide Time to Follow Action Plan Steps
77
USE OF RESERVES
HURF: Reserves through FY14 General Fund: (Non-Contingency) Reserves to
Backfill Across All County Funds Flood Control: Reserves through FY14? Revolving Loan Fund $2 mil balance could be used
for road related capital
PHSD & Jail District: Spending down, but reserves available through 10-year projection period
78
LEGISLATIVE RELIEF
Can Add to 3 Prong Approach by
Authorizing Revenue Opportunities
Lifting Mandates for Programs, Services, Service Levels
Allowing Flexibility in Use of Revenues
Flexibility in Service Delivery of Required Programs
79
CONCEPTUAL EXAMPLE
LONG TERM STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR FUTURE
80
PLAN KEY CONSIDERATIONS
Consistent Application of Foundations Previously Adopted and Implemented Constrained Areas of Needs That Are Part of the
Core Service Prioritized Core Services Needed to Maintain
Capacity Without Focusing on “Urgent” or “Immediate Needs” First Aligned Solutions System (County)-Wide Order of Events Based on “Naturally Occurring
Dates”
81
STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:NEXT STEPS
Step One: Prioritization of Long-Term Core Programs & Preferred Solutions (regardless of timing) Include Citizens, Board of Supervisors, County
Manager and Leadership Team in Process to Determine Core Programs Preferred Solutions Include Priority to Core
Programs, Cuts/Reductions, Funding Sources and Legislative Relief
82
STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:NEXT STEPS
Step Two: Translating Priorities to Annual Budgets and 10 Year Financial Plans Continual Process – Can’t Fix Everything in One Year How to Time Decisions - Considerations Phasing Election Dates Legislative Sessions Public Outreach
Step Three: Developing Timeline/Schedule to Implement Preferred Solutions
83
STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:STEP ONE
PRIORITIZATION & PREFERRED SOLUTIONS ROAD MAP KEY ELEMENTS
Board of Supervisors, County Manager, Leadership Team Evaluation & Prioritization of Programs/Services and Service Levels Departments & County Manager Board of Supervisors & Leadership Team Retreat Board of Supervisors & County Manager Retreat
Citizen Outreach & Input
Draft of Detailed Road Map In Progress
84
STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:STEP TWO
TRANSLATING PRIORITIES AND PREFERRED SOLUTIONS INTO ANNUAL BUDGET ROAD MAP
KEY ELEMENTS
Decisions from Step One Used to Update Financial Plan (10 Year)
Use Strategic/Annual Budget Process Integrate Timeline Components Evaluate Annually, Adjust as Needed
Draft of Detailed Road Map In Progress
85
STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN:STEP THREE
TIMELINE/SCHEDULE TO IMPLEMENT PRIORITIES & PREFERRED SOLUTIONS KEY ELEMENTS
Layout Priorities and Preferred Solutions by Fiscal Year – Timing of Solutions CPOS Expires 9/2014 Elections
Schedule Steps (Action Plans) Leading Up To Implementation of Each Preferred Solution
Draft of Detailed Timeline/Schedule In Progress
86
DISCUSSION
Questions?
Thoughts, Concerns, Feedback
Requests for Additional Information and/or Clarifications
87
NEXT STEPS
Budget Meetings begin May 23rd
Update on FY11 Financial Status FY12 Budget Outlook Review Highlights of Long Term Strategic
Recovery Plan Presentation of Detailed Road Maps and
Timeline/Schedule for Strategic Recovery Plan
Meetings with Departments May 24-27th Wrap up Budget Meetings on May 31st
88
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
County Financial Planning Team Members: County Manager’s Office Steve Peru, County Manager Mike Townsend, Deputy County Manager Larry Dannenfeldt, Deputy County Manager Joanne Keene, Government Relations Director Lucinda Andreani, Special Initiatives Director Alan Maguire, Consultant
Human Resources – Allison Eckert, Director
Finance – Sandi Schulz, Director Finance - Siri Mullaney, Budget and Planning Manager
1
FY11 3rd Quarter Update and FY12 Proposed Budget
May 23, 2011
2
Overview
Introductory Comments FY11 3rd Quarter Financial Update FY12 Proposed Budget
Break
Financial Planning Update
3
General Fund: Revenues
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
County Sales Tax 11,287,500$ 7,318,657$ 65.5% 11,175,000$ (112,500)$ -1.0%State Shared Sales Tax 15,225,000 10,179,604 67.1% 15,175,000 (50,000) -0.3%Property Tax and Penalties 8,189,961 7,638,022 92.1% 8,289,961 100,000 1.2%Auto Lieu 3,202,500 2,325,651 75.0% 3,100,000 (102,500) -3.2%PILT 1,514,240 - 0.0% 1,514,240 - 0.0%Other Intergovernmental 1,553,308 1,240,492 83.2% 1,491,419 (61,889) -4.0%Charges for Services 5,025,779 4,372,158 82.5% 5,300,000 274,221 5.5%Fines, Fees, and Forfeits 1,154,400 865,322 78.4% 1,103,868 (50,532) -4.4%Licenses and Permits 889,300 563,584 64.3% 875,950 (13,350) -1.5%Investment Income 355,000 231,314 72.0% 321,359 (33,641) -9.5%Other 311,290 387,121 86.6% 446,883 135,593 43.6%Transfers In 1,908,963 71,877 4.0% 1,789,935 (119,028) -6.2%Total 50,617,241$ 35,193,802$ 69.6% 50,583,615$ (33,626)$ -0.1%
Variance from BudgetYear to Date
(as a % of estimate)
Revenues are projected to be within 1% of the original budget
4
General Fund: Expenditures
Net of carryover appropriations, we are projecting we will be $2 million under budget due to salary and benefit savings
Operations, travel, capital, and carryovers will be expended 6% vacancy savings rate
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
Salary 24,793,881$ 18,728,516$ 75.5% 23,689,684$ (1,104,197)$ -4.5%Benefits 8,914,888 6,362,455 71.4% 8,039,187 (875,701) -9.8%Operations & Travel 9,325,264 6,758,085 72.5% 9,013,683 (311,581) -3.3%Capital 612,476 352,722 57.6% 315,064 (297,412) -48.6%Transfers Out 9,211,250 5,211,722 56.6% 8,927,628 (283,622) -3.1%Carryovers into FY12 806,391 806,391 Total 52,857,759$ 37,413,500$ 70.8% 50,791,637$ (2,066,122)$ -3.9%
Revenue 50,617,241$ 35,193,802$ 69.5% 50,583,615$ (33,626)$ -0.1%
Salary Savings (300,000)$
Use of Fund Balance (1,940,518)$ (2,219,698)$ (208,022)$ (1,732,496)$
FY11 Year to Date Variance from Budget
5
General Fund: Expenditures
Handout #1: Budget to estimate by department Includes direct General Fund programs only FY11 estimates are net of appropriation
carryovers
6
HURF
Due to delayed capital projects, there will be a net increase in fund balance
16% vacancy savings rate
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
HURF RevenueGasoline Tax 9,030,500$ 5,638,371$ 64.7% 8,720,000$ (310,500)$ -3.4%Auto Lieu 1,892,347 1,380,985 75.2% 1,837,475 (54,872) -2.9%Other 1,579,945 1,274,416 79.6% 1,601,408 21,463 1.4%Transfers In 3,604,500 1,535,739 94.9% 1,618,239 (1,986,261) -55.1%
Total Revenue 16,107,292$ 9,829,511$ 71.3% 13,777,122$ (2,330,170)$ -14.5%
ExpendituresSalaries 5,495,383$ 3,651,281$ 77.7% 4,696,318$ (799,065)$ -14.5%Benefits 2,109,054 1,298,030 76.8% 1,691,010 (418,044) -19.8%
Operations & Travel 6,598,690 2,809,204 58.0% 4,843,644 (1,755,046) -26.6%Capital 11,141,729 164,048 89.6% 183,054 (10,958,675) -98.4%Transfers Out 356,060 - 0.0% 323,941 (32,119) -9.0%
Total Expenditures 25,700,916$ 7,922,563$ 67.5% 11,737,967$ (13,962,949)$ -54.3%
Use of Fund Balance (9,593,624)$ 2,039,155$ Ending Fund Balance 8,116,088$ 19,748,867$
Year to Date(as a % of estimate) Variance
7
Jail District
$1.1 million increase in fund balance 13% vacancy savings rate
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
Jail District RevenueSales Tax 11,287,500$ 7,311,426$ 65.4% 11,175,000$ (112,500)$ -1.0%Bed Rental 2,276,366 1,470,938 62.6% 2,348,235 71,869 3.2%General Fund MOE 2,413,595 2,011,329 84.8% 2,371,944 (41,651) -1.7%Other 262,951 85,875 39.4% 217,885 (45,066) -17.1%
Total Revenue 16,240,412$ 10,879,568$ 67.5% 16,113,064$ (127,348)$ -0.8%
ExpendituresSalaries 6,883,678$ 4,898,130$ 79.7% 6,142,559$ (741,119)$ -10.8%Benefits 2,588,829 1,633,128 78.4% 2,082,506 (506,323) -19.6%
Operations & Travel 3,868,581 2,858,762 73.9% 3,868,581 - 0.0%Capital 392,480 214,600 87.8% 244,359 (148,121) -37.7%Debt Service 2,061,475 90,574 4.4% 2,060,506 (969) Transfers Out 60,389 - 0.0% 29,658 (30,731) -50.9%
Total Expenditures 15,855,432$ 9,695,194$ 67.2% 14,428,169$ (1,427,263)$ -9.0%
Increase In Fund Balance 384,980$ 1,684,895$ Ending Fund Balance 8,926,938$ 10,226,853$
Year to Date(as a % of estimate) Variance
8
PHSD
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
PHSD RevenueProperty Tax 5,028,462$ 4,612,548$ 91.7% 5,028,462$ -$ 0.0%General Fund MOE 3,739,233 3,152,892 84.3% 3,739,233 - 0.0%Other 1,223,929 974,944 82.1% 1,187,997 (35,932) -2.9%
Total Revenue 9,991,624$ 8,740,384$ 87.8% 9,955,692$ (35,932)$ -0.4%
ExpendituresSalaries 2,504,760$ 2,006,097$ 78.2% 2,564,224$ 59,464$ 2.4%Benefits 813,159 638,883 77.4% 825,093 11,934 1.5%
Operations & Travel 5,746,452 4,375,514 83.0% 5,268,724 (477,728) -8.3%Transfers Out 200,306 - 0.0% 154,789 (45,517) -22.7%
Total Expenditures 9,264,677$ 7,020,494$ 79.7% 8,812,830$ (451,847)$ -4.9%
Increase In Fund Balance 726,947$ 1,142,862$ Ending Fund Balance 726,947$ 1,142,862$
VarianceYear to Date
(as a % of estimate)
$200,000 budgeted savings in mandated payments from Federal offsets
Ending fund balance = 11% of revenues
9
CPOS
$9.5 million in sales tax capacity to reach $33 million (projected 1st quarter of FY15)
$3 million O&M funds exhausted in FY13
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
CPOSSales Tax 2,821,875$ 1,827,095$ 65.4% 2,793,750$ (28,125)$ -1.0%Grant Revenue 6,159,921 6,159,921 100.0% 6,159,921 - 0.0%Investment Income 190,000 18,244 40.5% 45,000 (145,000) -76.3%
Total CPOS 9,171,796$ 8,005,260$ 89.0% 8,998,671$ (173,125)$ -1.9%
CPOS TransfersOperations & Maintenance 560,913$ 459,837$ 82.0% 560,514$ (399)$ -0.1%Capital Projects 19,113,470 13,449,558 97.2% 13,833,678 (5,279,792) -27.6%
Use of Fund Balance (10,502,587)$ (5,395,521)$ Ending Fund Balance 1,701,130$ 6,808,196$
Sales tax collected through FY11 23,568,760$
Year to Date(as a % of estimate) Variance
10
Flood Control District
Most response & mitigation reimbursements for FY11 expenditures will be received in FY12 - FY14
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
Flood Control Administration & Capital ProjectsProperty Tax 1,437,347$ 1,365,707$ 95.0% 1,437,347$ -$ 0.0%Other Revenue 48,117 29,700 69.7% 42,597 (5,520) -11.5%Administration (357,188) (267,182) 74.8% (357,188) - 0.0%Capital Projects (1,959,500) (10,739) 100.0% (10,739) 1,948,761 -99.5%
Net Admin & Projects (831,224)$ 1,117,486$ 100.5% 1,112,017$ 1,943,241$ -233.8%
Emergency Response & MitigationResponse Expenditures (2,768,431)$ (2,600,000)$ 93.9% (2,768,431)$ -$ 0.0%Response Reimbursements 242,960 177,786 73.2% 242,960 - 0.0%Mitigation Expenditures (2,264,069) (1,104,645) 48.8% (2,264,069) - 0.0%
Mitigation Reimbursements - - 0.0% 20,000 20,000 Net Response & Mitigation (4,789,540)$ (3,526,859)$ 73.6% (4,769,540)$ 20,000$ -0.4%
VarianceYear to Date
(as a % of estimate)
11
Other (Non-Major) Funds: Revenues
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
Federal Grants & Shared Revenues 15,202,007$ 8,509,074$ 64.2% 13,253,581$ (1,948,426) -12.8%State Grants & Shared Revenues 7,026,602 4,928,191 71.1% 6,934,782 (91,820) -1.3%Charges for Services 5,288,108 3,744,865 63.4% 5,905,044 616,936 11.7%Property Tax 4,760,948 4,471,038 93.9% 4,760,948 - 0.0%Transfers In 4,533,564 356,456 9.8% 3,646,449 (887,115) -19.6%Solid Waste Contract 889,546 - 0.0% 1,070,473 180,927 20.3%Fines, Fees, an Forfeits 825,000 649,261 79.2% 820,000 (5,000) -0.6%Other 735,949 535,109 70.6% 758,461 22,512 3.1%Special Assessments 565,277 280,759 49.3% 569,099 3,822 0.7%Investment Income 358,975 335,643 75.2% 446,526 87,551 24.4%Total 40,185,976$ 23,810,396$ 62.4% 38,165,363$ (2,020,613)$ -5.0%
Year to Date(as a % of estimate) Variance from Budget
Non-major funds = 30% of total estimated revenues & expenditures
12
Other (Non-Major) Funds: Expenditures
Overall increase in other fund balances of $500,000 for FY11
16% vacancy savings rate
FY11Budget
FY11Estimate
Salary 12,524,751$ 8,540,337$ 68.2% 10,698,244$ (1,826,507)$ -14.6%Benefits 4,116,824 2,610,886 63.4% 3,328,624 (788,200) -19.1%Operations & Travel 21,874,015 12,270,504 56.1% 19,846,416 (2,027,599) -9.3%Capital 1,357,979 263,768 19.4% 433,646 (924,333) -68.1%Transfers Out 3,558,665 1,905,832 53.6% 3,292,763 (265,902) -7.5%Total 43,432,234$ 25,591,327$ 58.9% 37,599,693$ (5,832,541)$ -13.4%
Revenue 40,185,976$ 23,810,396$ 59.3% 38,165,363$ (2,020,613)$ -5.0%
Use of Fund Balance (3,246,258)$ (1,780,931)$ 565,670$ 3,811,928$
FY11 Year to Date Variance from
Budget
13
3rd Quarter Financial Update: FY2011
Summary Total revenues will be within 2% of budget Total expenditures will be 18% under budget
10% Vacancy Savings 8% Operations & Travel Savings 54% Capital Savings
Overall $3.6 million decrease in fund balance Net use of fund balance = $0 due to future emergency
response reimbursements
14
FY12 Proposed Budget:Assumptions
15
FY2012 BudgetKey Considerations
Economic recovery began in FY11 New “normal” level of revenues Flat budget Changes & reallocations at the
department/program level Use of reserves
Resume R&R with fund balance available if needed
16
FINANCIAL PLAN FOUNDATION KEY ELEMENTS
10 Year Plans for All Major Funds
Recessionary Revenue Model
Align Expenditures to Available Revenues
Prioritize County-Wide Mission Critical Areas• Personnel and Operational Infrastructure
Match Critical Programs to Highly Reliable Revenues to Protect Essential Services
Link One-Time, Deferrable Spending to Less Reliable Revenue
Maintain Adequate Reserves including Revenue Smoothing Reserve
Long Term PerspectiveFinancial Independence – Develop New Revenue Sources
Avoid Dependency on Temporary/Cyclical Revenues
Seek Relief from Mandates
Prudent Growth in Programs, FTEs and Recurring Expenditures
Continuous Improvement and ManagementCost containment opportunities through preventative efforts, efficiencies and use of technology
Sustainability
Emphasis on Essential Programs and People
Strategic Budget Process• Prioritize Core/Essential Services & Programs
• Allocate Resources based on Priorities
• Evaluate Mandates/Legally Required Programs
3 Prong Approach to Address Economic Impacts, Funding Shortfalls & Cost Shifts • Review and Reduce Expenditures and Service Levels
• Strategic Use of Reserves
• Develop Additional Revenue
17
Revenues by Type: All Funds
FY12 Operating Revenues = $115 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $128 million)
Other Intergovernmental
23%
Fines, Fees, & Forfeits
2%
State Shared Sales Taxes
13%
Charges for Serv ices
9%
HURF7%
Sales Taxes22%
Other Taxes5%
Property Taxe16%
Licenses & Permits
1%Other
2%
Other Intergovernmental 25,090,758$ HURF 8,450,000$ Sales Taxes 25,646,625 Other Taxes 5,777,000 Property Taxes 18,327,068 Other 2,644,029 State Shared Sales Taxes 15,326,750 Fines, Fees, & Forfeits 1,995,400 Charges for Services 9,937,190 Licenses & Permits 1,627,057
18
Top 10 Revenues: All Funds
Top 5 are the same in FY12 as FY11 Top 4 sources are sales based
FY12 FY11State Shared Sales Tax 1 1County & Jail District Sales Tax (equal) 2/3 2/3HURF Gasoline Tax 4 4General Fund Property Tax 5 5Vehicle License Tax 6 8Public Health Services District Property Tax 7 7Library District Property Tax 8 9County Parks and Open Space Sales Tax 9 10Federal Payment in Lieu of Taxes (PILT) 10State Heritage Grant Funding for Rogers Lake 6
19
Top 10 Revenues: State Shared Sales Tax
FY11 is 8.4% above FY10 to date FY11 projected at $1.5 million below FY07
high
State Shared Sales Tax
$900,000$1,100,000$1,300,000$1,500,000$1,700,000
July
Augus
tSep
tembe
rOcto
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Janu
aryFe
bruary
March
April
MayJu
ne
FY07 FY10 FY11
20
Top 10 Revenues: State Shared Sales Tax
Formula change = 5% growth No Census impact FY12: 2% growth
State Shared Sales Tax: Quarterly Trends
Q1 FY08
Q2 FY08Q3 FY08
Q4 FY08Q1 FY09
Q2 FY09
Q3 FY09
Q4 FY09Q1 FY10
Q2 FY10Q3 FY10
Q3 FY11 (to date)
Q2 FY11Q4 FY10Q1 FY11
-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%
21
Top 10 Revenues: Local Sales Tax (General Fund, Jail District, CPOS)
FY11 is 4.5% above FY10 to date FY11 projected at $2.8 million below FY08
high (all funds total)
Local Sales Tax
July
Augus
tSep
tembe
rOcto
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Janu
aryFe
bruary
March
April
May
June
FY07 FY10 FY11 Actual
22
Top 10 Revenues: Local Sales Tax (General Fund, Jail District, CPOS)
FY12: 2% growth
Local Sales Tax Quarterly Trends
Q1 FY08
Q2 FY08
Q3 FY08
Q4 FY08
Q1 FY09
Q2 FY09
Q3 FY09
Q4 FY09Q1 FY10Q2 FY10
Q3 FY10
Q2 FY11Q3 FY11(to date)
Q4 FY10
Q1 FY11
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
23
Top 10 Revenues: HURF Gasoline Tax
FY11 is flat with FY10 to date FY11 is projected at $2 million below FY07 high FY12 = 3% decline due to additional State shifts
HURF Revenues by Month
$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000
$1,000,000$1,100,000
July
Augus
tSep
tembe
rOcto
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
March
April
MayJu
ne
FY07 FY10 FY11
24
Top 10 Revenues: Primary Property Taxes
FY12 values will drop 5.7% FY12 rate projected at $0.4303 Total Levy = $7,788,390
Primary Values & Levy History
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
$1,800,000,000
$2,000,000,000
FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11 FY12$5,500,000$6,000,000$6,500,000$7,000,000
$7,500,000$8,000,000$8,500,000
Assessed Value Levy
25
Top 10 Revenues: Secondary Property Taxes(Public Health Services District, Library District,
Flood Control District)
Flood control = 14% levy decline Public Health Services District = 8.6% levy decline Library District = 8.6% levy decline
Secondary Tax Levies
$-$1,000,000$2,000,000$3,000,000$4,000,000$5,000,000$6,000,000
Flood Control District Library District Public HealthServices District
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Tax Rate = $0.20
Tax Rate = $0.25
$0.1899
$0.2293 $0.2367
26
Top 10 Revenues: Property Taxes
Handout #2: FY12 Rates & Levies
27
Top 10 Revenues: Vehicle License Tax
FY11 is within 1% of FY10 to date FY11 is 10% below FY07 high FY12 = 2% growth
Vehicle License Taxes by Month
July
Augus
tSep
tembe
rOcto
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Janu
aryFe
bruary
March
April
May
June
FY07 FY10 FY11
28
Economic Indicators: Building Permits
Building Permits and Plan Check Fees
$0
$650,000
$1,300,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
46% drop
Relatively flat from FY10 to FY11
29
Federal Budget Impacts
Secure Rural Schools PILT Full Funding Future Program Reductions? $2.7 million Public Health Funding $1.2 million HURF funding $1 million Community Services Funding $1 million Career Center Funding $700K Public Safety Funding
30
State Budget Impacts
Direct Cost Shifts = Direct Cash Outflow Cost Shifts in State Budget and from State Agencies
Revenue Reductions = Reduced Cash Inflow General Fund Revenue HURF Shifting for DPS Program (grant) Reductions
Health & Social Services Courts & Public Safety
Annual Total = $3.8 Million/Year
Cumulative Impact FY09 to FY12 = $11.8 Million
31
State Budget Impacts
FY09 FY10FY11
(estimated)FY12
(projected)Court Liability Insurance 12,450$ 54,510$ 54,510$ 73,000$ Restoration to Competency Cost Shift 59,384 317,383 140,000 125,000 Sexually Violent Predators Cost Shift - 20,682 45,000 50,000 County Justice of the Peace Salaries - 70,804 75,817 75,817 CAMA System - 562,181 578,133 778,727 Subtotal: Direct Cost Shifts 71,834$ 1,025,560$ 893,460$ 1,102,544$ Reduction in Grant Funding/Agency Cost Shifts 900,000$ 1,200,000$ 1,200,000$ 1,200,000$ Reduction in County Assistance Funds (Lottery) 27,502 245,654 550,035 550,035 HURF Shifts 600,000 650,000 650,000 900,000 Subtotal: Revenue Reductions 1,527,502$ 2,095,654$ 2,400,035$ 2,650,035$ Grand Total State Budget Impacts by Year 1,599,336$ 3,121,214$ 3,293,495$ 3,752,579$ Cummulative State Budget Impacts 1,599,336$ 4,720,550$ 8,014,045$ 11,766,624$
General Fund Total = over 3% of FY12 revenue
HURF Total = over 10% of FY12 gas tax revenue
Grant Funding/Agency Cost Shifts Total = over 8% of State grant revenue
32
Employees and Benefits
Compensation Merit increases not recommended for FY12 Employee pay frozen since 7/1/09 Hay study implementation
41% of positions under market Recommend implementation of new classification structure (mid-year)
Phased Approach
Benefits Health Insurance = 8.5% rate increase
Employee premium waived
Retirement system employer increases ASRS 53%/47% change
33
Employees and Benefits
*Single Health Benefit rate includes $20 monthly employee premium. The County is recommending we waive this employee premium pending implementation of a wellness program
**ASRS shown before 53%/47% impact
Employer RatesFY11
Cost/RateFY12
Cost/Rate
GeneralFund
Impact All Funds
Impact *Health Benefits: Single 5,030$ 5,458$ 428.33$ 8.52%Health Benefits: Dependent 4,245$ 4,610$ 364.81$ 8.59%Other NAPEBT Benefits 443$ 472$ 28.56$ 6.44% 13,500$ 24,000$ PSPRS 32.61% 38.47% 5.86% 17.97% 153,500$ 167,000$ AOC 11.64% 13.13% 1.49% 12.80% 46,000$ 81,500$ CORP 5.12% 5.74% 0.62% 12.11% 200$ 26,000$ **ASRS 9.85% 10.75% 0.90% 9.14% 204,000$ 355,000$ EORP 17.42% 17.96% 0.54% 3.10% 9,000$ 9,500$
200,000$
Benefit Changes: Employer Rates
365,000$
Increase
34
Employees and Benefits
*ASRS shown before 53%/47% impact
53%/47% ASRS Impact = $65 net pay reduction per $10,000 of wages
Employee RatesFY11
Cost/RateFY12
Cost/RateHealth Benefits: Single -$ -$ -$ 0.00%Health Benefits: Dependent 3,652$ 3,948$ 296.00$ 8.11%Other NAPEBT BenefitsPSPRS 7.65% 7.65% 0.00% 0.00%AOC 8.41% 8.41% 0.00% 0.00%CORP 8.41% 8.41% 0.00% 0.00%*ASRS 9.85% 10.75% 0.90% 9.14%EORP 7.00% 7.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Benefit Changes: Employee Rates
Increase
Various: Depends on Plans Selected
35
Employees and Benefits
Take home pay (employees with dependent health coverage)
Average ASRS employee take home pay reduction = -2.3% ($296) health ($360) ASRS rate increase ($258) ASRS 53%/47%
Average non-ASRS employee take home pay reduction = -0.7% ($296) health No PSPRS, AOC, CORP, or EORP employee rate changes
36
Expenditures by Strategic Priority Area: All Funds
FY12 Operating Expenditures = $135 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $154 million)
Public Health: Other2%
Economic Vitality & Development
1%
Public Safety: Criminal Justice
38%
Public Safety: Other17%
Public Health: PHSD10%
Cultural & Natural Resources
5%
Organizational & Fiscal Health
12%
Community Vitality15%
37
FY12 Proposed Budget: Major Funds Outlooks
38
Revenues by Type: General Fund
FY12 Operating Revenues = $50.3 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $50.5 million)
Sales Tax es23%
Other Tax es8%
Lic ens es & Permits
2%
State Shared Sales Tax es
30%
Other1%
Charges f or Serv ic es
3%
Fines , Fees , & Forf eits
2%
Property Tax es15% Trans f ers In
3%
Indirec t Cos t Rec ov ery
8%Other
Intergov ernmental (State & Federal
Grants )5%
State Shared Sales Taxes 15,326,750$ Transfers In 1,652,957$ Sales Taxes 11,398,500 Charges for Services 1,378,052 Property Taxes 7,783,484 Fines, Fees, & Forfeits 1,125,400 Indirect Cost Recovery 4,108,200 Licenses & Permits 892,300 Other Taxes 3,917,000 Other 431,436 Other Intergovernmental 2,265,899
39
Operating Expenditures by Strategic Priority Area: General Fund
FY12 Operating Expenditures = $52 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $51.6 million)
Cultural & Natural Resources
0.4%
Public Health: Other1.0%
Economic Vitality & Development
0.3%
Public Health: PHSD7.2%
Organizational & Fiscal Health
27.3%
Public Safety: Other3.3%
Public Safety: Criminal Justice
50.2%
Community Vitality10.4%
40
Expenditures by Category: General Fund
Salary47%
Benefits18%
Operating15%
Travel3%
Capital1%
Transfers Out16%
65% of General Fund budget is direct salary & benefits Transfers out is 75% maintenance of effort payments (Jail
District, PHSD)
41
General Fund
Handout #3: General Fund 10-Year Financial Plan
42
Major Fund Revenues by Type: HURF
FY12 Operating Revenues = $14.1 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $16 million)
Gasoline Tax60%
Vehicle License Tax13%
Other4%
Federal & State Capital Projects
Grants9%
National Forest Fee Revenue
11%Flood Control
District Transfer In3%
43
Major Fund Expenditures by Category: HURF
Salary28%
Benefits11%Operations
34%
Travel0%
Capital25%
Transfers Out2%
FY12 Operating Expenditures = $19.3 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $25.7 million)
Budgeted Use of Fund Balance = $5.1 million
44
HURF
Handout #4: HURF 10-Year Financial Plan
45
Major Fund Revenues by Type:Jail District
FY12 Operating Revenues = $16.3 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $16.2 million)
General Fund MOE13%
0%
Sales Tax62%
Other1%
Bed Rentals12%
Debt Proceeds: Transitional
Housing12%
46
Major Fund Expenditures by Category: Jail District
FY12 Operating Expenditures = $15.8 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $15.8 million)
Budgeted Operating Increase In Fund Balance = $500,000
Salary41.1%
Benefits16.3%
Operating22.0%
Debt Service12.2%
Travel0.5%
Capital7.6%
Transfers Out0.3%
47
Jail District
Handout #5: Jail District 10-Year Financial Plan
48
Major Fund Revenues by Type:Public Health Services District
FY12 Operating Revenues = $9.6 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $10 million)
Charges for Services
4%
Other2%
General Fund Maintenance of
Effort39%
Property Taxes48%
Licenses & Permits
7%
49
Major Fund Expenditures by Category: Public Health Services District
Salary43%
Benefits14%
Operations35%
Capital2%Travel
3%
Transfers Out3%
FY12 Operating Expenditures = $9.6 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $9.3 million)
Budgeted Use of Fund Balance = $0
(without mandated payments)
Salary27%
Operations59%
Capital1%
Benefits9%
Travel2%
Transfers Out2%
(without mandated payments)(with mandated payments)
50
Public Health Services District
Handout #6: Public Health Services District 10-Year Financial Plan
51
Major Fund Revenues by Type:CPOS
FY12 Operating Revenues = $3 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Revenues = $9 million)
Sales Tax98%
Investment Income
2%
52
Major Fund Expenditures by Category: CPOS
FY12 Operating Expenditures = $7.3 million
(FY11 Budgeted Operating Expenditures = $19.6 million)
Budgeted Use of Fund Balance = $4.4 million
Capital Salaries & Benefits
2%
Capital Operating and
Travel5%
Capital Projects
85%
Operations and Maintenance
8%
53
CPOS
Handout #7: CPOS 10-Year Financial Plan
54
Flood Control
Handout #8: Flood Control 10-Year Financial Plans
55
Summary
Flat budget
Resume R&R with fund balance available if needed
Begin implementation of long-term “roadmap” to financial sustainability during FY13
56
FY2012 Proposed Budget Meetings
Book Materials Reference Section Department walk-through Outside Agencies Additional Materials?
Meeting Schedule & General Format
Follow-Up Item Tracking
57
Strategic Plan to Maintain Long Term Fiscal Health and Wellness
58
Review of Plan Key Considerations
Consistent Application of Foundations Previously Adopted and Implemented
All Major Funds and Mission Critical Areas Are Under Funding Pressure
Constrained Areas of Needs That Are Part of the Core Service
Prioritized Core Services Needed to Maintain Capacity Without Focusing on “Urgent” or “Immediate Needs” First
59
Review of Plan Key Considerations
Aligned Solutions System (County)-Wide Order of Events Based on “Naturally Occurring
Dates” Potential Loss or Cap of Available Revenue
Opportunities
60
Critical Decisions Needed
Prioritize Core County Services & Staffing and Set Appropriate Service Level (level of service in programs) Based On: Available Future Resources
AND Possible New Revenue Sources Based on Essential
County ProgramsAND
Mandate Re-evaluation – Legislative and Self Imposed
61
Essential County Program Focus
Public Safety
Public Health
Courts and Criminal Justice
Roads
Government Support Services: Assessor Treasurer Recorder County Attorney
Focus Across All Programs and Funds:
Maintain Current Assets
Cost Efficiency Into the Future, not Short-Sighted “Windfalls”
62
Mission Critical Focus
Workforce Challenges Competitive Compensation Plan
Proactive approach as labor market recovers; not reactionary; learn from past
Maintain a Current Compensation Plan Reduce FTEs As Needed to Fund Compensation Adjustments
Employee Training Tools and Workspace (Facilities and Information
Technology)
63
Mission Critical Focus
Workforce Challenges - Continued Retention and Recruitment
Cost of Turnover is High – Keep Employees Who Are Trained and Performing Well
Be Competitive in the Market – Ability to Recruit
64
Solutions: Tools in our Toolbox
3 Prong Approach Revenue Opportunities
Reduce Programs/Services Costs
Use of Reserves
Legislative Relief (Adds to 3 Prong Approach)Mandates and Required Programs
Revenue Opportunities
65
Long Term Strategic Plan:Next Steps
Step One: Prioritization of Long-Term Core Programs & Preferred Solutions (regardless of timing) Include Citizens, Board of Supervisors, County
Manager and Leadership Team in Process to Determine Core Programs
Preferred Solutions Include Priority to Core Programs, Cuts/Reductions, Funding Sources and Legislative Relief
66
Long Term Strategic Plan:Next Steps
Step Two: Translating Priorities to Annual Budgets and 10 Year Financial Plans Continual Process – Can’t Fix Everything in One Year How to Time Decisions – Considerations
Phasing Election Dates Legislative Sessions Public Outreach
Step Three: Developing Timeline/Schedule to Implement Preferred Solutions
67
Long Term Strategic Plan:Step One
PRIORITIZATION & PREFERRED SOLUTIONSROAD MAP KEY ELEMENTS
Board of Supervisors, County Manager, Leadership Team Evaluation & Prioritization of Programs/Services and Service Levels
Citizen Outreach & Input
HANDOUT #9 – DRAFT Road Map
68
Long Term Strategic Plan:Step Two
TRANSLATING PRIORITIES AND PREFERRED SOLUTIONS INTO ANNUAL BUDGET ROAD MAP
KEY ELEMENTS Decisions from Step One Used to Update
Financial Plan (10 Year) Use Strategic/Annual Budget Process Integrate Timeline Components Evaluate Annually, Adjust as Needed
DETAILED ROAD MAP UNDER CONSTRUCTION
69
Long Term Strategic Plan:Step Three
TIMELINE/SCHEDULE TO IMPLEMENT PRIORITIES & PREFERRED SOLUTIONS KEY ELEMENTS
Layout Priorities and Preferred Solutions by Fiscal Year – Timing of Solutions examples: CPOS Expires 9/2014 Elections
Schedule Steps (Action Plans) Leading Up To Implementation of Each Preferred Solution
DETAILED TIMELINE/SCHEDULE UNDER CONSTRUCTION
70
Discussion
Questions? Thoughts, Concerns, Feedback Requests for Additional Information and/or
Clarifications
1
Coconino County Trends
Coconino County Board of SupervisorsNovember 2, 2011
The Arizona Rural Policy InstituteJeff Peterson, Research AssociateWayne Fox, DirectorThomas Combrink, Senior Research Specialist
2
This presentation is based in large part on a template
developed by Bill Towler,
Former Director of Community Development
Coconino County
And Russell Crawford, Coconino County Intern
3
16% Increase between 2000 and 2010
39% Increase between 1990 and 2010
462% Increase between 1950 and 2010
Coconino County Population1950 23,910 1960 41,857 1970 48,326 1980 78,008 1990 96,591 2000 116,320 2010 134,421
‐
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Pop
ulation
Year
Coconino County Population
US Census
Coconino County Annual Population Growth Rates
4
1950-2010 – 2.9% Average Annual Growth Rate0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
1950‐1960
1960‐1970
1970‐1980
1980‐1990
1990‐2000
2000‐2010
5.8%
1.4%
4.9%
2.2%
1.9%
1.5%
US Census
City of Flagstaff Population
5
25% Increase between 2000 and 2010
44% Increase between 1990 and 2010
760% Increase between 1950 and 2010
‐
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Flagstaff Population1950 7,663 1960 18,214 1970 26,117 1980 34,743 1990 45,857 2000 52,894 2010 65,870
US Census
City of Flagstaff Annual Population Growth Rates
6
1950-2010 - 3.7% Average Annual Growth Rate
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
1950‐1960
1960‐1970
1970‐1980
1980‐1990
1990‐2000
2000‐2010
9.0%
3.7%
2.9%
2.8%
1.4%
2.2%
US Census
Coconino County Land Area18,617 Square Miles
11,887,000 Acres
Population Density (2010)Coconino County - 6.85 persons per square mile
Arizona – 56.3 persons per square mileUnited States – 87.4 persons per square mile
7US Census
8Coconino County Adopted Budget 2011
39%
27%
12%
10%7% 5%
Reservation
Forest Service
Private Property
State Land
Other/Public Lands
Bureau of LandManagement
Coconino County Land Ownership
Private Land Owners
Nine entities own 70% or 1,012,300 acres of all privately owned land in Coconino County
9Bill Towler
Incorporated Community Populations
10US Census * Greater Flagstaff includes the FMPO region
City or Town 2000 2010Flagstaff 52,894 65,870 Greater Flagstaff* 69,148 85,151 Page 6,809 7,247 Williams 2,842 3,023 Fredonia 1,036 1,314 Sedona (Coconino County) 2,963 2,842 Tusayan 562 558
FMPO Region
11
Select Unincorporated-Census Designated Places Populations
12US Census
Native American Reservation Populations within Coconino County
13US Census
County Race and Ethnicity
14US Census
Race1990 2000 1990-2000
Change 2010 2000-2010 Change
White 61,836 73,318 19% 82,967 13%
Native American 28,233 33,161 17% 36,714 11%
African American 1,419 1,215 -14% 1,629 34%
Asian/Pacific Islander 861 1,018 18% 2,010 97%
Other 4,242 4,801 13% 6,990 46%
Two or More Races NA 2,744 NA 4,111 50%
Hispanic Ethnicity1990 2000 1990-2000
Change 2010 2000-2010 Change
Number 9,696 13,383 38% 18,166 36%Percent of Population 10% 12% 2% 14% 2%
Race in Coconino County
15
White 63%
Native American
29%
African American
1%
Asian/ Pacific Islander
1%
Other 4%
Two or More Races
2%
2000
White 62%
Native American27%
African American1%
Asian/Pacific Islander2% Other
5%
Two or More Races3%
2010
US Census
16
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Births Deaths
Births & Deaths, Coconino County
Year Births Deaths 2009 1,894 6762008 1,985 6752007 2,132 6212006 2,062 6192005 2,070 6322004 2,027 5922003 1,920 6202002 1,867 5922001 1,873 5482000 1,858 501
Arizona Department of Health Services
Age Groups to 19
17US Census
Age 1990 2000 2010Under 5 years 8,613 8,444 8,945 5 to 9 years 8,535 9,122 8,763
10 to 14 years 8,159 9,965 8,599 15 to 19 years 9,868 10,188 13,324
Age Groups 20 to 44
18US Census
Age 1990 2000 201020 to 24 years 11,148 12,512 15,925 25 to 29 years 8,225 8,710 9,943 30 to 34 years 8,287 7,570 8,186 35 to 39 years 7,937 8,539 7,849 40 to 44 years 6,486 9,098 7,650
Age Groups 45 to 64
19US Census
Age 1990 2000 201045 to 49 years 4,611 8,699 8,664 50 to 54 years 3,548 6,892 9,289 55 to 59 years 2,960 4,777 8,677 60 to 64 years 2,672 3,661 6,683
Age Groups 65+
20US Census
Age 1990 2000 201065 to 69 years 2,107 2,856 4,463 70 to 74 years 1,480 2,159 2,984 75 to 79 years 950 1,537 2,035 80 to 84 years 553 897 1,350
85 years and over 452 694 1,092
Average Household Size
Average Family Size
21US Census
1990 2000 % Change 2010 % Change2.99 2.8 -6.8% 2.69 -3.9%
1990 2000 % Change 2010 % Change3.54 3.36 -5.4% 3.26 -3.0%
Coconino County Income Comparison in Nominal Dollars
22US Census
Between 1990 and 2000, median family incomes in dollars rose 50% and median household income rose 47%. Between 2000 and 2010 median family income rose 16% and median household income rose 10%. The number of households earning over $100,000 rose by 369% between 1990 and 2000, and 58% between 2000 and 2010.
1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010
% Change, 2000‐2010
Median Family Income $ 30,648 $ 45,873 50% $ 53,187 16%
Median Household Income $ 26,112 $ 38,256 47% $ 42,130 10%Number of Households with Income >$100K 730 3,422 369% 5,409 58%
Income Comparison in 2010 Dollars
23ACS Estimates 1990, 2000, 2010; US Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator
Flagstaff 1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010
% Change, 2000‐2010
Median Family Income $ 61,464 63,384 3% $ 56,839 -10%Median Household Income $ 49,910 $ 48,619 -3% $ 45,042 -7%
Rural Coconino County* 1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010
% Change, 2000‐2010
Median Family Income $ 47,054 $ 57,254 22% $ 49,678 -13%Median Household Income $ 42,310 $ 51,283 21% $ 39,332 -23%
Coconino County 1990 2000% Change, 1990‐2000 2010
% Change, 2000‐2010
Median Family Income $ 53,895 $ 60,041 11% $ 53,187 -11%Median Household Income $ 45,918 $ 50,072 9% $ 42,130 -16%
*Rural Coconino County is the County outside of Flagstaff
Education- NAU Mountain Campus Enrollment
24
Enrollment Change, 2005‐2010Freshman 70%Sophomore 48%Junior 41%Senior 39%Graduate ‐7%
Northern Arizona University
12,107 12,14211,867
12,340
12,859
13,752
14,982
16,116
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Coconino Community College Enrollment
3,785 3,798
4,380 4,382 4,561 4,553 4,646 4,961
3,048 3,044 3,516 3,418 3,596 3,588 3,588 3,700
737 754 864 964 965 965 1,058 1,261
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Fall Enrollment Numbers
Total Students Part‐Time Students Full‐Time Students
25Coconino Community College
FUSD Enrollment By Grade
26Flagstaff Unified School District, (2010-2011) 120 Day Count
27
FUSD Historic Enrollment
Flagstaff Unified School District
Coconino County Historical School Enrollment
28Arizona Department of Education, Includes Charters
Educational Attainment 25 yrs +
29American Community Survey, 2005-2009
4% 6%
19%
24%7%
21%
18%Flagstaff6% 8%
24%
25%
7%
17%
13%Coconino County
Educational Attainment 25 yrs +
30
10%
14%
29%20%
10%
9%8%
Tuba City2% 4%
29%
38%
9%
12%6%
Page
9%
15%
39%
23%
7%6% 2%
Fredonia
<9th
9‐12 (no diploma)
HS grad
Some College, NoDiploma
Associates
Bachelors
Grad or ProfessionalDegree
0% 3%
30%
32%
13%
21%0%
Tusayan
American Community Survey, 2005-2009
Total Housing UnitsTotal Housing Units, Coconino County
1990 ∆ 2000 ∆ 201042,914 25% 53,443 18% 63,321
31US Census
Tenure of Occupied Housing Units
32
61%
39%
Coconino County
Owner OccupiedRenter Occupied
48%52%
Flagstaff
US Census
Coconino County Rents, 2000 & 2009
33American Community Survey, 2005-2009
34
35
Flagstaff Rents, 1990, 2000, & 2009
US Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2009
36
Flagstaff Rents, 1990, 2000, & 2009
7%
13%
56%
22%
2% 0%2% 3%
16%
46%
23%
8%
2%0% 1%
8%
17%
33%31%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990 2000 2009
US Census; American Community Survey, 2005-2009
Rent Trends
37US Department of Housing and Urban Development
Fair Market Rents, Coconino County
Efficiency One‐Bedroom
Two‐Bedroom
Three‐Bedroom
Four‐Bedroom
FY 2011 $845 $1,005 $1,136 $1,461 $1,843 FY 2010 $820 $975 $1,102 $1,417 $1,787 Annual Increase 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Average Sales Price January 2010: $300,000 Average Sales Price January 2011: $267,000
• Even as sales prices drop, rents continue to rise
Foreclosure Data
38RealtyTrack.com
• Houses Receiving Foreclosure Filings in September, 2011:• Arizona, 1 in every 305 (9,022)• Coconino County, 1 in every 471
(101)• Flagstaff: 1 in every 453 (72)
Recent Home Sales, Flagstaff
39
Month YearNumber Sold Median Price Median Size
(sq feet)Price/Square
Foot
January 2011 41 $ 267,000 2,116 $ 144
July 2010 82 $ 296,000 1,915 $ 155
January 2010 38 $ 300,000 1,788 $ 146
July 2009 83 $ 300,000 2,014 $ 149
January 2009 31 $ 315,000 1,790 $ 176
July 2008 79 $ 315,000 1,732 $ 202
$240,000
$250,000
$260,000
$270,000
$280,000
$290,000
$300,000
$310,000
$320,000
July, 2008 January, 2009 July, 2009 January, 2010 July, 2010 January, 2011
Northern Arizona Association of Realtors
Coconino County Building Permits
40Annual New Privately-Owned Residential Building Permits in Coconino County. US Census Bureau.
Year Buildings Residential Units
Construction Costs (millions)
1999 702 949 $ 111 2000 598 683 $ 99 2001 857 877 $ 115 2002 841 865 $ 119 2003 900 1,189 $ 148 2004 899 910 $ 165 2005 821 1,080 $ 175 2006 838 1,080 $ 184 2007 474 477 $ 103 2008 279 283 $ 66 2009 155 482 $ 54
Coconino County Building Permits
41Annual New Privately-Owned Residential Building Permits in Coconino County. US Census Bureau.
Employment
42
Coconino County Employment
February 2011
January 2011
February 2010
Change, February 2010‐
February 2011
Civilian Labor Force 76,800 76,600 74,800 2,000
Unemployment 6,800 7,200 7,600 ‐800
Unemployment Rate 8.9% 9.4% 10.2% ‐1.3%
Total Employment 70,000 69,400 67,200 2,800
Arizona Department of Commerce
Total employment in the county Increased more than the size of the workforce between February, 2010 and February, 2011.
Unemployment
43State of Arizona Research Center
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Arizona 6.0% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 5.9% 9.7% 10.0%Coconino County 5.4% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.3% 3.7% 5.3% 8.3% 8.9%Rural Coconino County 7.1% 7.4% 6.9% 6.5% 5.6% 4.8% 7.0% 10.8% 11.6%Flagstaff 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 5.3% 5.9%United States 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.7%
Rural Coconino County is the county outside of Flagstaff
Poverty in Coconino County
44American Community Survey, 2007-2010
Coconino County Rural Coconino CountyTotal Population Under 18 Total Population Under 18
2007 15.9% 19.5% 16.3% 22.6%2008 15.8% 20.5% 16.2% 23.5%2009 17.9% 22.5% 17.6% 25.3%2010 25.9% 29.7% 25.9% 35.9%
Rural Coconino County is the county outside of Flagstaff
Employment
45
Industry 2000 2005 2010 2011
State and Local Government 16,800 15,900 16,300 16,400
Leisure and Hospitality 11,200 12,400 12,300 12,500
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 9,600 9,600 9,500 9,600
Educational and Health Services 5,800 7,100 8,000 8,100
Manufacturing 2,900 3,300 3,700 3,800
Federal Government 3,400 3,100 3,200 2,900
Professional and Business Services 2,600 3,400 2,600 2,600
Mining and Construction 2,800 3,300 2,000 2,000
Other Services 1,200 1,900 1,800 1,800
Financial Activities 1,600 1,700 1,300 1,300
Information 500 500 400 400
Average Number of Employees within Coconino County by Year.
Arizona Department of Economic Security
Poverty Comparison
462005-2009 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau
ArizonaCoconino County
Flagstaff
15% 17% 18%
21%21%
19%
7%13%
9%
11% 11%
10%
Total Population in Poverty Under 18 in Poverty 65+ in Poverty Families in Poverty
AreaTotal
Population in Poverty
Under 18 in Poverty
65+ in Poverty Families in Poverty
Arizona 15% 21% 7% 11%Coconino County 17% 21% 13% 11%Flagstaff 18% 19% 9% 10%
Coconino County Workforce Growth
47
2000-2010 Workforce Change: 23%
Arizona Department of Administration, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Arizona Workforce Growth
48
2000-2010 Workforce Change: 27%
Arizona Department of Administration, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Flagstaff Workforce Growth
49
2000-2010 Workforce Change: 21%
Arizona Department of Administration, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
‐
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
20002010
31,596 38,162
2009 Transportation
502005-2009 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates
Commuting Method Flagstaff Coconino County Arizona United
States
Median Travel Time to Work 15.3 minutes 18 Minutes 24.9 Minutes 25.2 Minutes
Drive Alone66% 68% 75% 76%
Carpool15% 14% 13% 11%
Public Transportation1% 1% 2% 5%
Walk7% 7% 2% 3%
Other Means7% 4% 2% 2%
Work at Home5% 6% 5% 4%
Public Transportation:Average Monthly Mountain Line Ridership
51
24.6% Average Annual Increase in Ridership, 2002-2010
15,959
24,551 30,070
35,528
51,159
60,948
74,933
86,12592,938
‐
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
NAIPTA
County Expenditure Comparisons
52Coconino County Budget Office
‐
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
Fiscal Year Actual County Expenditures
2000 80,854,013 2001 91,133,646 2002 86,682,993 2003 86,641,977 2004 96,260,335 2005 104,224,410 2006 116,181,618 2007 113,147,723 2008 135,690,142 2009 120,765,542 2010 113,771,637
County Per-Capita Expenditure Comparisons
53Coconino County Budget Office and US Census Bureau
Fiscal YearEstimated Per-
Capita Expenditure
2000 $ 695
2001 $ 774
2002 $ 720
2003 $ 713
2004 $ 780
2005 $ 835
2006 $ 922
2007 $ 888
2008 $ 1,057
2009 $ 930
2010 $ 846
$‐
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
FY11Budget
FY11 Year to Date
FY11Estimate
ProjectedVariance
18 Adult Probation 1,442,761$ 1,109,256$ 1,373,869$ -5%
12 Assessor 1,636,359 1,133,893 1,493,506 -9%
1 Board of Supervisors 1,334,128 931,968 1,333,399 0%
23 Clerk of Superior Court 1,089,835 846,547 1,039,466 -5%
4 Community Development 1,378,443 1,094,667 1,356,504 -2%
34 Community Services 923,962 681,496 887,667 -4%
17 Constable 89,191 61,290 84,847 -5%
25 County Attorney 2,780,883 2,088,936 2,665,131 -4%
33 County Manager 1,159,838 901,225 1,114,539 -4%
2 Facilities Management 2,542,360 1,833,909 2,323,964 -9%
9 Finance 1,325,157 997,559 1,243,233 -6%
11 Human Resources 1,211,851 901,736 1,126,744 -7%
16 Information Technology 2,403,862 1,875,359 2,177,398 -9%
21 Justice Court - Flagstaff 1,217,243 886,527 1,126,618 -7%
38 Justice Court - Fredonia 151,044 121,327 148,536 -2%
40 Justice Court - Page 330,573 246,972 319,007 -3%
43 Justice Court - Williams 336,510 244,414 315,739 -6%
24 Juvenile Court 2,549,384 1,715,224 2,410,622 -5%
28 Legal Defender 760,903 586,900 779,341 2%
at Non-Departmental: Assessor/ Treasurer System 980,757 561,437 887,847 -9%
7 Non-Departmental: Other 1,145,741 549,271 1,077,482 -6%
26 Parks & Recreation 761,864 582,297 761,864 0%
27 Public Defender 2,029,027 1,586,408 1,966,300 -3%
5 Recorder 1,661,221 1,229,193 1,572,904 -5%
20 Sheriff 7,689,250 5,869,728 7,459,404 -3%
22 Superior Court 2,624,203 1,996,540 2,624,203 0%
13 Treasurer 604,139 444,141 563,367 -7%
General Fund Expenditures by Department
Handout #1
FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.4303$ 0.3953$ 0.0350$ 8.9%AV 1,809,990,684$ 1,920,050,800$ (110,060,116)$ -5.7%
Levy (Total) 7,788,390$ 7,589,961$ 198,429$ 2.6%
FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.2367$ 0.2367$ -$ 0.0%AV 1,839,054,680$ 2,011,384,698$ (172,330,018)$ -8.6%
Levy (Total) 4,353,042$ 4,760,948$ (407,905)$ -8.6%Library Operations 4,055,116$ 4,435,103$ (379,988)$ -8.6%State Budget Impacts 297,927$ 325,844$ (27,917)$ -8.6%
FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.2500$ 0.2500$ -$ 0.0%AV 1,839,054,680$ 2,011,384,698$ (172,330,018)$ -8.6%
Levy (Total) 4,597,637$ 5,028,462$ (430,825)$ -8.6%
FY12 FY11Tax Rate 0.2000$ 0.2000$ -$ 0.0%AV 793,527,519$ 924,932,135$ (131,404,616)$ -14.2%
Levy (Total) 1,587,055$ 1,849,864$ (262,809)$ -14.2%Levy (Operating District) 1,232,990$ 1,437,347$ (204,357)$ -14.2%
FY12 FY11Primary Levy 40.56$ 39.53$ 1.03$ 2.6%Library District 21.64$ 23.67$ (2.03)$ -8.6%Public Health Services District 22.86$ 25.00$ (2.14)$ -8.6%Flood Control District 17.16$ 20.00$ (2.84)$ -14.2%
Total per $100,000 of FY11 Value 102.22$ 108.20$ (5.98)$ -5.5%
FY12 Property Taxes: Coconino County Taxing Districts
Change
Change
ChangeProjected Levy per $100,000 of FY11 Value
General Fund Primary Tax
Library District
Public Health Services District
Flood Control DistrictChange
Change
Handout #2
Actual Budget EstimatedFY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues and Transfers InTaxes 22,091,428$ 22,679,961$ 22,601,930$ 22,998,984$ 23,992,684$ 25,169,096$ 26,076,138$ 27,016,756$ 27,974,768$ 28,967,585$ 29,977,732$ 31,023,895$ 32,087,243$ Licenses and Permits 847,683 889,300 875,950 892,300 936,915 1,002,499 1,022,549 1,043,000 1,081,591 1,121,610 1,161,988 1,203,819 1,245,953 Intergovernmental 17,899,917 18,292,548 18,180,659 18,241,412 18,073,391 19,208,467 19,879,444 20,575,614 21,279,382 22,008,891 22,745,143 23,507,607 24,275,817 Charges for Services 3,462,114 5,025,779 5,300,000 4,637,489 4,691,013 4,784,834 4,887,307 4,991,998 5,098,958 5,208,234 5,319,878 5,433,943 5,550,480 Fees, Fines, and Forfeits 1,165,450 1,154,400 1,103,868 1,125,400 1,142,281 1,159,415 1,176,806 1,194,459 1,212,375 1,230,561 1,249,019 1,267,755 1,286,771 Investment Income 419,410 355,000 321,359 386,420 351,023 317,128 331,875 362,278 424,010 507,231 625,060 765,778 946,788 SRP Contributions 136,481 125,000 137,087 140,636 133,604 126,924 120,578 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Miscellaneous 183,465 186,290 272,827 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 Transfers In 2,883,684 1,908,963 1,789,935 1,652,957 651,422 589,742 596,060 602,493 608,711 615,034 621,592 627,780 633,932
Total Revenues and Transfers In 49,089,632 50,617,241 50,583,615 50,266,398 50,163,132 52,548,904 54,281,557 56,077,397 57,970,595 59,949,946 61,991,213 64,121,378 66,317,784
Expenditures and Transfers OutSalaries 25,945,977 24,793,881 24,793,881 24,544,151 24,896,509 25,359,400 25,908,990 26,393,821 26,937,771 27,416,232 27,981,122 28,451,064 29,006,651 Benefits 8,329,268 8,914,888 8,914,888 9,475,691 9,787,603 10,139,131 10,489,505 10,830,504 11,172,168 11,503,801 11,872,401 12,193,462 12,509,130
Less: Projected Salary Savings (1,496,865) (300,000) (1,979,898) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) Operations 7,996,080 8,000,976 7,654,681 7,988,372 7,234,268 7,144,890 7,345,648 7,307,633 7,484,768 7,423,145 7,651,685 7,566,481 7,771,454 Travel 1,186,309 1,324,288 1,359,002 1,322,927 1,335,156 1,348,508 1,361,993 1,375,613 1,389,369 1,403,263 1,417,295 1,431,468 1,445,783 Capital 456,497 612,476 315,064 583,286 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 Total Transfers Out 8,039,145 9,211,252 8,927,628 8,830,031 8,328,985 8,354,939 8,451,533 8,401,651 8,502,020 8,565,433 8,667,654 8,734,773 8,834,307
Total Expenditures and Transfers Out 50,456,411 52,557,761 49,985,246 52,444,458 51,292,974 52,057,319 53,268,120 54,019,675 55,196,549 56,022,326 57,300,609 58,087,700 59,277,777
Total Surplus/(Deficit) (1,366,779) (1,940,520) 598,370 (2,178,060) (1,129,841) 491,585 1,013,436 2,057,722 2,774,046 3,927,621 4,690,604 6,033,677 7,040,007 Beginning Fund Balance 14,647,229 13,280,450 13,280,450 13,878,820 11,700,760 10,570,918 11,062,503 12,075,939 14,133,662 16,907,708 20,835,329 25,525,933 31,559,610 Net Ending Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 11,339,930$ 13,878,820$ 11,700,760$ 10,570,918$ 11,062,503$ 12,075,939$ 14,133,662$ 16,907,708$ 20,835,329$ 25,525,933$ 31,559,610$ 38,599,617$
Fund BalanceUnreserved
General Fund 6,349,558$ 4,033,688$ 6,559,768$ 3,408,744$ 2,144,162$ 2,268,629$ 4,023,115$ 5,812,426$ 8,303,425$ 11,935,092$ 16,320,490$ 22,035,571$ 28,747,039$ Loan to Flood Control District - (1,000,000) (1,000,000) - - 1,000,000 - - - - - - -
Emergency Reserve 6,930,892 7,306,242 7,319,052 7,292,016 7,426,757 7,793,874 8,052,825 8,321,236 8,604,283 8,900,237 9,205,443 9,524,040 9,852,578 Total Unreserved Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 10,339,930$ 12,878,820$ 10,700,760$ 9,570,918$ 11,062,503$ 12,075,939$ 14,133,662$ 16,907,708$ 20,835,329$ 25,525,933$ 31,559,610$ 38,599,617$
Assumptions & Changes:Vacancy Savings & PDP 1,400,000 300,000 1,979,898 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 Transfers for State Budget Impacts 282,195 409,265 409,266 298,103 Merit Increases ($800,000/year) 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Pay Plan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 Operations/Travel Increases 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%Loss of SRS Funding for Superintendent of Schools, Patrol, Search and Rescue 725,000 Recurring funding lossLoss of PILT full funding 400,000 Recurring funding lossCapital R&R Funding 1,210,000 1,210,000 750,000
Coconino CountyGeneral Fund Ten Year Financial Plan: Operating Revenues and Expenditures (Slow Growth)_Merit & CPI
Projected
234
1
8
67
5/14/2011Handout #3
Actual Budget EstimatedFY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021
Revenues and Transfers InTaxes 22,091,428$ 22,679,961$ 22,601,930$ 22,998,984$ 23,992,684$ 25,169,096$ 26,076,138$ 27,016,756$ 27,974,768$ 28,967,585$ 29,977,732$ 31,023,895$ 32,087,243$ Licenses and Permits 847,683 889,300 875,950 892,300 936,915 1,002,499 1,022,549 1,043,000 1,081,591 1,121,610 1,161,988 1,203,819 1,245,953 Intergovernmental 17,899,917 18,292,548 18,180,659 18,241,412 18,073,391 19,208,467 19,879,444 20,575,614 21,279,382 22,008,891 22,745,143 23,507,607 24,275,817 Charges for Services 3,462,114 5,025,779 5,300,000 4,637,489 4,691,013 4,784,834 4,887,307 4,991,998 5,098,958 5,208,234 5,319,878 5,433,943 5,550,480 Fees, Fines, and Forfeits 1,165,450 1,154,400 1,103,868 1,125,400 1,142,281 1,159,415 1,176,806 1,194,459 1,212,375 1,230,561 1,249,019 1,267,755 1,286,771 Investment Income 419,410 355,000 321,359 386,420 351,023 317,128 314,909 309,730 312,185 309,561 312,600 306,953 307,635 SRP Contributions 136,481 125,000 137,087 140,636 133,604 126,924 120,578 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 Miscellaneous 183,465 186,290 272,827 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 190,800 Transfers In 2,883,684 1,908,963 1,789,935 1,652,957 651,422 593,780 604,407 616,524 628,795 641,557 654,968 668,371 680,755
Total Revenues and Transfers In 49,089,632 50,617,241 50,583,615 50,266,398 50,163,132 52,552,943 54,272,938 56,038,880 57,878,854 59,778,798 61,712,129 63,703,143 65,725,454
Expenditures and Transfers OutSalaries 25,945,977 24,793,881 24,793,881 24,544,151 24,896,509 25,782,621 26,782,802 27,861,920 29,038,826 30,191,358 31,473,585 32,702,056 33,918,160 Benefits 8,329,268 8,914,888 8,914,888 9,475,691 9,787,603 10,236,680 10,692,162 11,172,284 11,661,665 12,149,606 12,684,899 13,176,779 13,633,309
Less: Projected Salary Savings (1,496,865) (300,000) (1,979,898) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) Operations 7,996,080 8,000,976 7,654,681 7,988,372 7,234,268 7,144,890 7,345,648 7,307,633 7,484,768 7,423,145 7,651,685 7,566,481 7,771,454 Travel 1,186,309 1,324,288 1,359,002 1,322,927 1,335,156 1,348,508 1,361,993 1,375,613 1,389,369 1,403,263 1,417,295 1,431,468 1,445,783 Capital 456,497 612,476 315,064 583,286 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 10,452 Total Transfers Out 8,039,145 9,211,252 8,927,628 8,830,031 8,328,985 8,403,737 8,552,538 8,529,136 8,681,241 8,799,672 8,962,426 9,093,202 9,247,659
Total Expenditures and Transfers Out 50,456,411 52,557,761 49,985,246 52,444,458 51,292,974 52,626,887 54,445,594 55,957,038 57,966,321 59,677,495 61,900,343 63,680,439 65,726,817
Total Surplus/(Deficit) (1,366,779) (1,940,520) 598,370 (2,178,060) (1,129,841) (73,944) (172,656) 81,842 (87,467) 101,303 (188,213) 22,705 (1,364) Beginning Fund Balance 14,647,229 13,280,450 13,280,450 13,878,820 11,700,760 10,570,918 10,496,974 10,324,318 10,406,161 10,318,693 10,419,996 10,231,783 10,254,487 Net Ending Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 11,339,930$ 13,878,820$ 11,700,760$ 10,570,918$ 10,496,974$ 10,324,318$ 10,406,161$ 10,318,693$ 10,419,996$ 10,231,783$ 10,254,487$ 10,253,124$
Fund BalanceUnreserved
General Fund 6,349,558$ 4,033,688$ 6,559,768$ 3,408,744$ 2,144,162$ 1,703,100$ 2,274,039$ 2,092,807$ 1,731,185$ 1,549,410$ 1,073,209$ 799,272$ 496,419$ Loan to Flood Control District - (1,000,000) (1,000,000) - - 1,000,000 - - - - - - -
Emergency Reserve 6,930,892 7,306,242 7,319,052 7,292,016 7,426,757 7,793,874 8,050,280 8,313,353 8,587,509 8,870,586 9,158,574 9,455,216 9,756,705 Total Unreserved Fund Balance 13,280,450$ 10,339,930$ 12,878,820$ 10,700,760$ 9,570,918$ 10,496,974$ 10,324,318$ 10,406,161$ 10,318,693$ 10,419,996$ 10,231,783$ 10,254,487$ 10,253,124$
Assumptions & Changes:Vacancy Savings & PDP 1,400,000 300,000 1,979,898 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 Transfers for State Budget Impacts 282,195 409,265 409,266 298,103 Merit Increases ($800,000/year) 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Pay Plan 0.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.00%
5 Operations/Travel Increases 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%Loss of SRS Funding for Superintendent of Schools, Patrol, Search and Rescue 725,000 Recurring funding lossLoss of PILT full funding 400,000 Recurring funding lossCapital R&R Funding 1,210,000 1,210,000 750,000
Coconino CountyGeneral Fund Ten Year Financial Plan: Operating Revenues and Expenditures (Slow Growth)_Pay Plans
Projected
234
1
8
67
5/14/2011Handout #3
5/19/2011
Actual Budget EOY Est FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021Operating Revenues
Taxes 1,892,189$ 1,892,347$ 1,837,475$ 1,860,000$ 1,971,600$ 2,089,896$ 2,169,312$ 2,251,746$ 2,335,061$ 2,421,458$ 2,508,630$ 2,598,941$ 2,689,904$ Licenses and Permits 24,270 16,525 46,000 16,525 16,856 17,193 17,536 17,887 18,549 19,235 19,928 20,645 21,368 Intergovernmental 9,042,778 9,193,920 9,045,602 8,483,420 8,694,670 8,954,508 9,177,535 9,406,138 9,640,455 9,880,631 10,126,812 10,379,146 10,637,790 Investment Income 543,403 250,000 350,000 250,000 311,996 200,748 73,221 (37,351) - - - - - Gain on Sale of Equipment 40,430 250,000 - 170,663 227,574 311,885 289,722 294,611 216,341 344,891 96,925 261,542 242,266 Miscellaneous 10,583 - 60,806 - 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Transfers In 1,614,945 1,645,000 1,607,500 1,625,000 1,625,000 642,234 123,516 1,003 - - - - - Total Revenues 13,168,598 13,247,792 12,947,383 12,405,608 12,852,695 12,221,463 11,855,842 11,939,034 12,215,406 12,671,215 12,757,295 13,265,275 13,596,327
Operating ExpendituresSalaries 4,737,694 5,495,383 4,696,318 5,364,258 5,424,764 5,533,927 5,726,448 5,953,913 6,184,150 6,423,621 6,609,916 6,794,484 6,984,451 Benefits 1,680,010 2,109,054 1,691,010 2,124,620 1,816,316 1,886,440 1,967,660 2,055,399 2,141,058 2,227,935 2,309,457 2,382,075 2,449,105 Salary Savings (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) Operations 2,157,657 3,232,765 2,035,307 3,216,015 3,293,600 3,318,536 3,343,721 3,369,158 3,394,850 3,420,798 3,447,006 3,473,476 3,500,211 Commodities 1,486,366 1,523,315 1,292,180 1,548,605 1,574,424 1,600,708 1,627,466 1,654,706 1,682,438 1,710,672 1,739,415 1,768,679 1,798,473 Contingency 12,794 900,000 670,000 900,000 - - - - - - - - - Equipt & Lt Veh Replacement 450,509 2,640,375 14,930 2,212,041 2,492,543 2,628,945 2,504,014 2,253,309 2,917,240 2,329,772 2,556,389 2,680,521 4,106,964 Travel 23,021 68,670 18,500 63,670 64,307 64,950 65,599 66,255 66,918 67,587 68,263 68,945 69,635 Facility Improvements 70,650 - - - - - - - - - - - - Capital (Routine Equipment) 208,071 691,300 84,394 628,906 69,370 32,370 47,370 69,370 32,370 47,370 32,370 32,370 47,370 Transfers Out 1,019,477 1,183,182 1,151,063 1,230,269 1,222,278 1,256,928 1,297,159 1,340,289 1,384,273 1,429,628 1,472,859 1,516,456 1,560,974 Total Expenditures 11,846,249 17,844,044 11,653,702 16,288,384 14,957,601 15,322,803 15,579,437 15,762,399 16,803,297 16,657,383 17,235,675 17,717,006 19,517,183
Total Operating Surplus/(Deficit) 1,322,349 (4,596,252) 1,293,681 (3,882,776) (2,104,906) (3,101,340) (3,723,595) (3,823,366) (4,587,891) (3,986,167) (4,478,381) (4,451,732) (5,920,856)
Capital Road Improvement RevenuesIntergovernmental 282,900 900,000 819,000 1,325,846 - - - - - - - - - Transfers In 199,815 1,959,500 10,739 425,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 Total Revenues 482,715 2,859,500 829,739 1,750,846 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000
Capital Road Improvement ExpendituresROW Acquisition 128,846 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 Improvements 641,864 6,850,000 8,730 1,942,138 4,382,500 4,300,000 2,780,000 3,060,000 3,152,500 3,200,000 3,150,000 3,250,000 3,250,000 Federal Stimulus (ARRA) 819,000 931,872 535 - - - - - - - - - - Total Expenditures 1,589,710 7,856,872 84,265 2,017,138 4,457,500 4,375,000 2,855,000 3,135,000 3,227,500 3,275,000 3,225,000 3,325,000 3,325,000
Total Capital Surplus/(Deficit) (1,106,995) (4,997,372) 745,474 (266,292) (3,457,500) (3,275,000) (1,805,000) (2,085,000) (2,127,500) (2,225,000) (2,175,000) (2,275,000) (2,275,000)
Total Surplus/(Deficit) 215,354 (9,593,624) 2,039,155 (4,149,068) (5,562,406) (6,376,340) (5,528,595) (5,908,366) (6,715,391) (6,211,167) (6,653,381) (6,726,732) (8,195,856) Beginning Fund Balance 17,494,358 17,709,712 17,709,712 19,748,867 15,599,799 10,037,393 3,661,053 (1,867,542) (7,775,908) (14,491,298) (20,702,465) (27,355,846) (34,082,578) Net Ending Fund Balance 17,709,712$ 8,116,088$ 19,748,867$ 15,599,799$ 10,037,393$ 3,661,053$ (1,867,542)$ (7,775,908)$ (14,491,298)$ (20,702,465)$ (27,355,846)$ (34,082,578)$ (42,278,433)$
( FY12 and beyond Exp linked to ExpRevised TAB)
HURF
Financial Summary
PROJECTED FY2010 FY2011
Ten Year Financial Plan: Adjusted for Inflation and Pay Plan
5/19/2011 3:42 PMHandout #4
FY12FY10 Budget Estimate Budget FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
RevenuesMOE 2,325,435$ 2,413,595$ 2,371,944$ 2,420,000$ 2,468,400$ 2,517,768$ 2,568,123$ 2,619,486$ 2,671,876$ 2,725,313$ 2,779,819$ 2,835,416$ 2,892,124$ Sales Tax 10,791,078 11,287,500 11,175,000 11,398,500 11,968,425 12,622,499 13,102,154 13,600,036 14,103,237 14,625,057 15,151,559 15,697,015 16,246,411 Bed Rentals 2,428,754 2,276,366 2,346,745 2,275,162 - - 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 2,190,000 Other 346,251 262,951 219,375 234,155 367,457 309,517 286,928 251,607 234,858 218,804 212,890 212,111 217,321
Total Revenues 15,891,518$ 16,240,412$ 16,113,064$ 16,327,817$ 14,804,282$ 15,449,784$ 18,147,205$ 18,661,128$ 19,199,971$ 19,759,174$ 20,334,269$ 20,934,542$ 21,545,856$
ExpendituresSalaries 6,010,141$ 6,883,678$ 6,142,559$ 6,839,350$ 6,920,097$ 7,074,799$ 7,232,962$ 7,396,634$ 7,555,277$ 7,717,329$ 7,882,863$ 8,042,649$ 8,205,685$ Benefits 2,168,128 2,588,829 2,082,506 2,704,178 2,797,402 2,906,027 3,009,563 3,116,142 3,222,218 3,331,010 3,445,943 3,557,045 3,667,555 Operating 3,772,358 3,765,363 3,765,363 3,712,870 3,664,787 3,701,435 3,738,449 3,775,834 3,813,592 3,851,728 3,890,245 3,929,148 3,968,439 Debt Service 2,574,622 2,061,475 2,060,506 2,061,650 - - - - - - - - - Travel 74,305 103,218 103,218 89,218 90,110 91,011 91,921 92,841 93,769 94,707 95,654 96,610 97,576 Capital 18,498 392,480 244,359 185,000 185,000 185,000 850,000 265,000 425,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 220,000 Transfers Out 16,790 60,389 29,658 44,137 11,080 11,302 11,528 11,758 11,994 12,234 12,478 12,728 12,982
Total Expenditures 14,634,842$ 15,855,432$ 14,428,169$ 15,636,403$ 13,668,476$ 13,969,574$ 14,934,424$ 14,658,209$ 15,121,850$ 15,227,007$ 15,547,183$ 15,858,179$ 16,172,238$
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Fund Balance 1,256,676$ 384,980$ 1,684,895$ 691,414$ 1,135,806$ 1,480,210$ 3,212,781$ 4,002,920$ 4,078,121$ 4,532,167$ 4,787,086$ 5,076,363$ 5,373,618$
Additional ServicesTransitional Housing: Staff 159,587$ 478,762$ 492,929$ 506,867$ 521,265$ 535,657$ 550,525$ 565,888$ 581,248$ 597,121$ Transitional Housing: Capital & Debt Service 1,100,000 1,350,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 250,250 Transitional Housing: Debt Proceeds (2,200,000) - - - - - - - - - Facilitiy Expansion: Staff 385,714 396,374 406,995 417,954 429,266 440,536 452,168 Facility Expansion: Operating 1,652,772 1,669,300 2,246,760 2,269,228 2,291,920 2,314,839 2,337,988 2,361,367 2,384,981 Facility Expansion: Debt Service 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000 1,265,000
Total Decrease for Additional Services -$ -$ -$ (940,413)$ 3,481,784$ 2,412,479$ 4,654,591$ 4,702,117$ 4,749,822$ 4,798,569$ 4,848,391$ 4,898,401$ 4,949,520$
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Fund BalanceAfter Additional Serivces 1,256,676$ 384,980$ 1,684,895$ 1,631,827$ (2,345,978)$ (932,269)$ (1,441,809)$ (699,197)$ (671,701)$ (266,401)$ (61,306)$ 177,962$ 424,098$
Beginning Fund Balance 7,285,282 8,541,958 8,541,958 10,226,853 11,858,680 9,512,702 8,580,433 7,138,624 6,439,426 5,767,725 5,501,324 5,440,018 5,617,980 Endng Fund Balance 8,541,958$ 8,926,938$ 10,226,853$ 11,858,680$ 9,512,702$ 8,580,433$ 7,138,624$ 6,439,426$ 5,767,725$ 5,501,324$ 5,440,018$ 5,617,980$ 6,042,078$
Assumptions:Merit 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Pay Plan 2.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%Transitional Housing Debt Service 250,250 RecurringTransitional Housing Staffing beginning March 2012 (10 FTEs) 159,587$ 478,762 Transitional Housing Capital 1,100,000$ 1,100,000 Facility Expansion 3,897,474$ Recurring
FY11 Projected
JAIL DISTRICT10 YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN
Handout #5
FY11Budget
FY11Estimates
FY12Budget FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
District RevenuesProperty Taxes 5,028,462$ 5,028,462$ 4,600,357$ 4,370,339$ 4,501,449$ 4,726,522$ 5,057,378$ 5,310,247$ 5,506,726$ 5,704,969$ 5,910,347$ 6,117,210$ General Fund MOE 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 3,739,233 General Fund Loan - - - 230,018 98,908 (63,082) (228,511) (37,332) - - - -
Investment Income - 9,000 12,000 22,230 25,389 17,795 6,585 - - - - - Total District Revenues 8,767,695$ 8,776,695$ 8,351,590$ 8,361,820$ 8,364,979$ 8,420,468$ 8,574,685$ 9,012,148$ 9,245,959$ 9,444,202$ 9,649,580$ 9,856,443$
-
Mandates & IndirectsMandates (3,377,465)$ (3,187,665)$ (3,628,565)$ (3,772,848)$ (3,924,346)$ (4,051,603)$ (4,183,952)$ (4,321,594)$ (4,464,741)$ (4,576,397)$ (4,691,402)$ (4,809,857)$
Indirects (1,385,040) (1,417,519) (1,263,516) (1,276,151) (1,288,913) (1,301,802) (1,314,820) (1,327,968) (1,341,248) (1,354,660) (1,368,207) (1,381,889) Total Mandates & Indirects (4,762,505)$ (4,605,184)$ (4,892,081)$ (5,048,999)$ (5,213,258)$ (5,353,405)$ (5,498,771)$ (5,649,562)$ (5,805,989)$ (5,931,057)$ (6,059,608)$ (6,191,745)$
4,005,190$ 4,171,511$ 3,459,509$ 3,312,821$ 3,151,720$ 3,067,063$ 3,075,914$ 3,362,586$ 3,439,970$ 3,513,145$ 3,589,972$ 3,664,697$
Program ActivityProgram Revenues 1,223,929$ 1,178,997$ 1,259,239$ 1,295,780$ 1,358,553$ 1,406,872$ 1,456,981$ 1,507,634$ 1,560,115$ 1,613,079$ 1,667,906$ 1,723,145$
Salary (2,504,760) (2,564,224) (2,590,495) (2,622,775) (2,681,459) (2,741,462) (2,802,812) (2,862,066) (2,922,577) (2,984,371) (3,043,776) (3,104,367) Benefits (813,159) (825,093) (868,493) (900,402) (937,057) (971,252) (1,005,464) (1,037,605) (1,069,614) (1,104,312) (1,133,833) (1,160,073) Operations & Travel (983,947) (663,540) (985,857) (986,424) (996,288) (1,006,251) (1,016,313) (1,026,476) (1,036,741) (1,047,108) (1,057,580) (1,068,155) Capital - - (98,500) - - - - - - - - - Transfers Out (200,306) (154,789) (206,760) (194,960) (199,195) (203,406) (207,687) (211,831) (216,039) (220,420) (224,537) (228,599)
Net Use of Funds: Programs (3,278,243)$ (3,028,649)$ (3,490,866)$ (3,408,781)$ (3,455,447)$ (3,515,498)$ (3,575,295)$ (3,630,345)$ (3,684,856)$ (3,743,132)$ (3,791,820)$ (3,838,050)$
726,947$ 1,142,862$ (31,357)$ (95,960)$ (303,726)$ (448,435)$ (499,382)$ (267,759)$ (244,886)$ (229,987)$ (201,848)$ (173,353)$ Beginning Fund Balance - - 1,142,862 1,111,505 1,015,545 711,819 263,384 (235,998) (503,757) (748,643) (978,630) (1,180,478) Ending Fund Balance 726,947$ 1,142,862$ 1,111,505$ 1,015,545$ 711,819$ 263,384$ (235,998)$ (503,757)$ (748,643)$ (978,630)$ (1,180,478)$ (1,353,831)$
Public Health Services District: 10-Year Financial Plan
Change in Fund Balance Before Programs
Increase/(Decrease) in Fund Balance
Projected
Handout #6
FY03 - FY10 FY11
Budget FY11
Estimate FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 TotalRevenues:
Sales Tax 20,775,011$ 2,821,875$ 2,793,750$ 2,849,625$ 3,020,603$ 3,191,267$ 369,745$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 33,000,000$ Investment Income 1,767,327 190,000 45,000 64,676 73,516 35,432 - 9,426 9,708 10,000 10,300 10,609 2,035,993 Grants 844,304 6,159,921 6,159,921 - - - - - - - - - 7,004,225
Total Revenue 23,386,643$ 9,171,796$ 8,998,671$ 2,914,301$ 3,094,119$ 3,226,698$ 369,745$ 9,426$ 9,708$ 10,000$ 10,300$ 10,609$ 42,040,219$
Expenditures:Fort Tuthill Expansion 3,084$ -$ -$ -$ 1,378,361$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 1,381,445$ Kachina Area Forest & Wetlands 895,370 805,554 - - 25,593 - - - - - - - 920,963 McMillan Mesa - - - 187,019 - - - - - - - - 187,019 Observatory Mesa 86,520 33,000 - 33,000 1,538,213 - - - - - - - 1,657,733 Old Growth Forest - - - - - 2,805,588 - - - - - - 2,805,588 Rogers Lake 103,640 12,509,124 12,509,124 1,100,000 - - - - - - - - 13,712,764 Walnut Canyon - - - - - 1,657,733 - - - - - - 1,657,733 Project Administration 2,077,234 402,038 401,928 370,204 377,608 - - - - - - - 3,226,974 FTCP Fairgrounds 131,526 1,588,558 52,055 2,036,503 337,577 - - - - - - - 2,557,661 FTCP Amphitheater 1,908,260 1,746,265 - 1,746,265 - - - - - - - - 3,654,525 Cataract Lake County Park - 50,000 50,000 417,649 - - - - - - - - 467,649 Navajo Interpretive Sites - - - - 374,078 - - - - - - - 374,078 Peaks View County Park 321,497 133,751 - 133,751 332,166 - - - - - - - 787,414 Raymond Park 352,795 810,949 811,571 - - - - - - - - - 1,164,366 Sawmill County Park 126,163 25,000 - 25,000 - - - - - - - - 151,163 Tuba City Park 3,207,106 18,501 9,000 9,501 - - - - - - - - 3,225,607 Doney Park Urban Trail 85,251 943,970 - 605,471 - - - - - - - - 690,722 Kanab Creek Trail - 46,760 - 46,760 - - - - - - - - 46,760 Water/Wastewater Project - - - - - - - - - - - - - Operations & Maintenance 1,884,480 560,913 560,514 560,832 - - - - - - - - 3,005,826
Total Uses of Funds 11,182,926$ 19,674,383$ 14,394,192$ 7,271,955$ 4,363,596$ 4,463,321$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 41,675,990$
Net Increase/(Decrease) 12,203,717$ (10,502,587)$ (5,395,521)$ (4,357,654)$ (1,269,477)$ (1,236,623)$ 369,745$ 9,426$ 9,708$ 10,000$ 10,300$ 10,609$ Beginning Fund Balance -$ 12,203,717$ 12,203,717$ 6,808,196$ 2,450,542$ 1,181,065$ (55,558)$ 314,187$ 323,613$ 333,321$ 343,321$ 353,620$ Ending Fund Balance 12,203,717$ 1,701,130$ 6,808,196$ 2,450,542$ 1,181,065$ (55,558)$ 314,187$ 323,613$ 333,321$ 343,321$ 353,620$ 364,229$
Coconino County Parks and Open SpaceLong-Term Plan: $33 Million Sales Tax Ballot Initiative
5/19/2011Handout #7
5/19/2011
FY10 Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Revenue
Property Taxes 1,972,685$ 1,849,864$ 1,849,864$ 1,587,609$ 1,508,229$ 1,545,934$ 1,669,609$ 1,753,089$ 1,840,744$ 1,932,781$ 1,971,437$ 2,010,865$ 2,051,083$ Less: Sedona Levy (288,574) (308,724) (308,724) (266,903) (253,558) (259,897) (280,689) (294,723) (309,459) (324,932) (331,431) (338,059) (344,821) Less: Williams Levy (100,370) (103,793) (103,793) (87,715) (83,329) (85,412) (92,245) (96,858) (101,701) (106,786) (108,921) (111,100) (113,322) Other Revenue 59,649 48,117 42,597 8,117 59,832 68,333 24,759 8,217 8,247 8,279 8,313 8,349 8,386
Total Revenue 1,643,390$ 1,485,464$ 1,479,944$ 1,241,108$ 1,231,174$ 1,268,958$ 1,321,434$ 1,369,726$ 1,437,832$ 1,509,343$ 1,539,398$ 1,570,055$ 1,601,327$
Flood Control Administration Expenditures 298,277 357,188 357,188 286,661 291,723 297,456 305,470 314,532 327,572 337,067 345,148 352,942 360,778 Schultz Fire Mitigation Staffing - 50,000 50,000 108,847 111,555 114,406 118,254 122,575 127,008 131,596 135,609 139,613 143,669
Net Available for Capital 1,345,113$ 1,078,276$ 1,072,756$ 845,600$ 827,895$ 857,095$ 897,710$ 932,619$ 983,252$ 1,040,680$ 1,058,640$ 1,077,500$ 1,096,880$
Capital Transfers 154,915$ 1,959,500$ 10,739$ 1,175,000$ 970,000$ 1,000,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,350,000$ 550,000$ 1,050,000$
Schultz Flood Response 8,715 2,766,743 2,766,743 - 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Schultz Flood Response Reimbursements - (242,960) (242,960) (1,004,460) (430,483) - - - - - - - - Schultz Flood Mitigation Projects - 2,215,757 2,215,757 - - - - - - - - - - Schultz Flood Mitigation Reimbursements - - (20,000) (1,146,796) (494,159) (189,595) - - - - - - - General Fund Loan - (1,000,000) (1,000,000) - - 1,000,000 - - - - - - - Net Schultz Flood Response & Mitigation 8,715$ 3,739,540$ 3,719,540$ (2,151,256)$ (424,642)$ 1,310,405$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 400,000$ 300,000$ 200,000$ 100,000$
Loan RepaymentNet Increase/(Decrease) in Fund Balance 1,181,483 (4,620,764) (2,657,523) 1,821,856 282,537 (1,453,310) (702,290) (617,381) (566,748) (459,320) (591,360) 327,500 (53,120)
Beginning Fund Balance 1,377,283 2,558,766 2,558,766 (98,757) 1,723,099 2,005,637 552,327 (149,963) (767,344) (1,334,092) (1,793,412) (2,384,772) (2,057,272)
Ending Fund Balance 2,558,766$ (2,061,998)$ (98,757)$ 1,723,099$ 2,005,637$ 552,327$ (149,963)$ (767,344)$ (1,334,092)$ (1,793,412)$ (2,384,772)$ (2,057,272)$ (2,110,392)$
*Secondary Property Tax Rate 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$ 0.2000$
Capital Expenditures Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Forest Lakes culverts 154,915$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Merzville & Sheep Springs Culverts - 64,500 10,739
Bader Rd Rio crossing - 425,000 - 425,000 Timberline Drainage Improvements - Phase I - 500,000 - 750,000 Kachina Village detention 70,000 - 70,000 Elk Place & Hillside Dr. drainage improvements 350,000 - 350,000 Mt. View Ranchos drainage 150,000 - 150,000 S. Snowbowl Rd 400,000 - 400,000 Hillside Drive drainage improvement 500,000 Turkey Trail drainage 500,000 Mountain Dell drainage box culverts 600,000 Clear Creek Pines 4, 5 & 6, drainage system 500,000 Pine Del drainage improvements 600,000 Spring Valley Road - replace low water crossing 450,000 Fernwood drainage improvement 700,000 Cedarwood Dr. & Bow String Rd - drainage improvements 350,000 Suzette Lane - install Rio De Flag stream crossing 600,000 Clear Creek Pines 3 & 7, drainage system 500,000 Cumberland Road 600,000 Kaibab Estates West drainage improvements 750,000 Timberline Drainage improvements - Phase II 550,000 Espee Road Stream crossing 1,050,000
Total Capital Expenditures 154,915$ 1,959,500$ 10,739$ 1,175,000$ 970,000$ 1,000,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,050,000$ 1,100,000$ 1,350,000$ 550,000$ 1,050,000$
Coconino County Flood Control District10-Year Financial Plan: Before Future Schultz Flood Project Match: $0.2000 Rate
FY11
FY11
Projected
Deficit
Handout #8
5/19/2011 Coconino County Flood Control District10-Year Financial Plan: Before Future Schultz Flood Project Match: $0.2000 Rate
Schulz Flood Response Expenditures Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Emergency Response & Supplies 8,715$ 2,766,743$ 2,766,743$ -$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 400,000$ 300,000$ 200,000$ 100,000$ Right of Ways - 1,688 1,688 - - - - - - - - - - Sunset Crater Mitigation Design - 230,088 230,088 - - - - - - - - - - Fernwood Drainage Design - 50,000 50,000 - - - - - - - - - - Drainage Master Plan - 320,000 320,000 - - - - - - - - - - Cinder Lake Study - 124,000 124,000 - - - - - - - - - -
Copeland Channel Liner - 700,000 700,000 - - - - - - - - - - Campbell Ave. Channel - 789,981 789,981 - - - - - - - - - -
Total Schulz Flood Response 8,715$ 4,982,500$ 4,982,500$ -$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 500,000$ 400,000$ 300,000$ 200,000$ 100,000$
Schulz Flood Response Reimbursements Budget Estimated FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Emergency Response & Supplies -$ (242,960)$ (242,960)$ (1,004,460)$ (430,483)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Right of Ways - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sunset Crater Mitigation Design - - - (120,796) (51,770) - - - - - - - - Fernwood Drainage Design - - - - - - - - - - - - - Drainage Master Plan - - - (300,000) - - - - - - - - - Cinder Lake Study - - (20,000) (26,000) - - - - - - - - -
Copeland Channel Liner - - - (700,000) - - - - - - - - - Campbell Ave. Channel - - - - (442,389) (189,595) - - - - - - -
Total Schulz Flood Response -$ (242,960)$ (262,960)$ (2,151,256)$ (924,642)$ (189,595)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
FY11
FY11
Handout #8
HANDOUT # 9
COCONINO COUNTY LONG TERM STRATEGIC FISCAL HEALTH AND WELLNESS PLAN
STEP ONE: PRIORITIZATION OF LONG TERM CORE PROGRAMS AND PREFERRED SOLUTIONS
Citizen Outreach Departments County Manager Board of Supervisors
Summer Citizens’ Survey Dept & CM Mtgsi Dept Meetings Review and Discuss Plan
June, July, Aug Community Mtgs with Board Community Meetings
Stakeholder Focus Groups
Presentation of Census Data & Trends; Review Revenue Options & Compensation Philosophy
Board Retreat #1ii
Fall Results Teamsiii Results Teams Present to CM
Aug, Sept, Oct Annual Leadership Retreat with Board and Directorsiv_______________________________
Winter
Nov, Dec, Jan Board Retreat #2v
Board Retreat #3vi
i Review of programs on basis of results and basic program/service attributes; review mandates, cost recovery, demand for program/service, citizen reliance on program/service; identify discressionary programs and levels of service with a goal of a three to five year transition; initial discussion on prioritizing preferred solutions ii Review historical role of county and evolution of current county programs and services; review services by area; mandates; core functions; role of County government and percent budget allocation by strategic priority area. Outcome = confirm the six areas for focus, identify specific questions on programs or services, explore mandates and begin to discuss board agreement on current percentage allocation of resources; begin discussion on prioritization of preferred solutions iii Create asset map of what others are doing, review map and strategies in light of the role for government identified by the Board, and review of prioritization of programs and service level options and preferred solutions. ivDiscuss Board agreement on percentage allocation per area. Presentations from Results Teams and small group discussion concerning role of the county, prioritized programs, mandates and preferred solutions. vReview prioritized programs and levels of service by priority area with some actual budget estimates/scenarios, review budget assumptions and percentage allocations.
HANDOUT # 9
vi Finalize budget assumptions, finalize allocation percentage by area, and reach agreement on the current prioritization of programs and preferred solutions going into the FY13 budget meetings.