Post on 30-Dec-2015
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Presentation about National SOFI’s Millennium Project, Venezuela Node
José Luis CordeiroWashington, July 30, 2004
• The future is no longer what it used to be.
Mafalda
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• What variables should be included in a national SOFI?
• How can very different variables be combined?
• How can the variables be forecast?
• How can the variables be weighted?
• How can double accounting be avoided?
Design of National SOFI’s
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• SOFI selection of variables
• SOFI data collection
• Forecasting the data (TIA)
• Analysis
• National SOFI report
Procedure for National SOFI’s
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1. Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)2. Food availability (calories per capita in low–income countries)3. GDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars)4. Share of households with access to safe water (15 most populated countries)5. Mean monthly carbon dioxide in atmosphere (ppm) 6. Annual population addition (million)7. Percent unemployed (world)8. Literacy rate, adult total (in low- and middle-income countries)9. Annual AIDS deaths (million)10. Life expectancy (world)11. Number of armed conflicts (those with at least 1,000 deaths per year)12. Developing-country debt 13. Forestlands (million hectares)14. People living on less than $2 per day (billion, without China)15. Terrorist attacks (number of people killed or wounded)16. Violent crime (per 100,000 population, in 17 countries)17. Share of population living in countries that are not free18. Secondary school enrollment (% of school age)19. Share of population with access to health care (15 most populated countries)20. Number of countries having or thought to have nuclear capacity
Variables in the 2003 SOFIwww.FuturoVenezuela.orgSociedad Mundial del Futuro
VENEZUELA
Missing data for National SOFI’sInfant Mortality Unemployment AIDS Deaths Life Expectancy Debt/gdp
School Enrollment
Argentina1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991,
1994
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 19871989, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995
Brasil
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1993, 1996
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987
Canada 19991983, 1984, 1986, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987, 1988, 1989
Chile
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987
Colombia
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987 1990
Ecuador
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1988, 1990, 1995 2001
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987
Mexico
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1989, 1990
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987
Peru1983, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999
1988, 1990, 1995
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987
Venezuela1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991,
1993, 1999
1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996,
1998, 1999
1986, 1987
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USA Chile Venezuela Canada Brazil
Argentina Mexico Colombia Ecuador Peru
SOFI 2004
0,00,1
0,20,3
0,40,5
0,60,7
0,80,9
1,01,1
1,21,3
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
SOFI 2004
0,00,1
0,20,3
0,40,5
0,60,7
0,80,9
1,01,1
1,21,3
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
National SOFI’s (in the Americas)
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Argentiina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela USA
1983 0,785 0,815 1,019 1,000 1,040 1,489 0,993 1,058 1,195 0,805
1984 1,108 0,827 1,031 1,017 1,017 1,505 0,995 1,045 1,172 0,826
1985 0,936 0,830 1,040 0,573 0,876 1,279 0,840 0,782 0,991 0,832
1986 0,966 0,877 1,044 0,671 0,888 1,188 0,836 0,814 0,998 0,830
1987 0,975 0,902 1,050 0,747 0,916 0,997 0,833 0,874 1,016 0,840
1988 0,975 0,928 1,059 0,840 0,923 0,914 0,828 0,911 1,032 0,847
1989 0,842 0,947 1,012 0,936 0,929 0,841 0,863 0,862 0,898 0,852
1990 0,974 0,890 0,905 0,776 0,904 0,884 0,864 0,819 0,804 0,909
1991 1,035 0,892 0,878 0,832 0,937 0,926 0,875 0,846 0,849 0,891
1992 1,045 0,883 0,865 0,869 0,977 0,944 0,893 0,789 0,860 0,891
1993 1,026 0,866 0,856 0,880 1,006 0,972 0,897 0,738 0,841 0,891
1994 1,010 0,901 0,867 0,884 1,031 1,050 0,901 0,824 0,813 0,901
1995 0,918 0,940 0,876 0,939 1,030 1,109 0,816 0,871 0,903 0,905
1996 0,935 0,961 0,876 0,963 0,997 1,117 0,886 0,922 0,912 0,928
1997 0,968 0,962 0,899 0,970 1,001 1,121 0,947 0,963 0,964 0,960
1998 0,970 0,970 0,923 0,917 0,972 1,078 0,959 0,969 0,971 0,979
1999 0,968 0,906 0,944 0,886 0,877 0,880 0,986 0,975 0,877 0,997
2000 0,975 0,932 0,984 0,887 0,877 0,978 0,998 0,993 1,002 1,021
2001 0,943 0,921 0,997 0,856 0,951 1,098 1,007 1,028 1,009 1,026
2002 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2003 1,002 1,016 0,976 1,020 1,003 0,999 0,992 1,008 1,001 1,007
2004 1,004 1,017 0,983 1,036 1,007 1,007 1,001 0,995 1,007 1,015
2005 1,006 1,029 0,990 1,052 1,011 1,006 1,010 1,002 1,013 1,022
2006 1,009 1,041 0,997 1,067 1,015 1,004 1,019 1,009 1,018 1,030
2007 1,011 1,053 1,004 1,082 1,020 1,002 1,028 1,016 1,023 1,037
2008 1,013 1,067 1,011 1,096 1,024 1,000 1,037 1,022 1,028 1,044
2009 1,016 1,080 1,018 1,110 1,029 0,999 1,046 1,029 1,033 1,052
2010 1,018 1,094 1,024 1,123 1,033 0,997 1,055 1,035 1,038 1,059
2011 1,020 1,108 1,031 1,136 1,038 0,995 1,064 1,041 1,042 1,066
2012 1,023 1,123 1,038 1,149 1,042 0,993 1,074 1,047 1,047 1,073
National SOFI’s (base 2002 = 1)
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Comparative Year 1983
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Argen
tina
Brazil
Canad
aChil
e
Colombia USA
Mexico
Venez
uela
Ecua
dor
Peru
Comparative Year 1992
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Comparative Year 2002
020406080
100120140
Argen
tina
Brazil
Canad
aChil
e
Colombia USA
Mexico
Venez
uela
Ecua
dor
Peru
Comparative Year 2012
020406080
100120140160
Argen
tina
Brazil
Canad
aChil
e
Colombia USA
Mexico
Venez
uela
Ecua
dor
Peru
• Review methodology
• Define variables and weights
• Improve data collection
• Expande country set
• Cross regional comparisons
• Historical comparisons of forecasts
• Base case analysis and other scenarios
• Comparison with other indexes
Next Steps for National SOFI’s
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¡Muchas gracias!
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