Future Scenario PlanningDr. Nita RollinsFuturist, Resource Interactive

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Brussels

Futuring & Thought Leadership

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

CHALLENGE:TO ENVISION FOUR FUTURE (2016) SCENARIOS OF OHIO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AS AN INNOVATION HUB

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

WHAT WAS THE MOST IMPACTFUL

INNOVATION, ARGUABLY, OF THE LAST FORTY YEARS?

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Key Innovations Since 1970

INTERNET 1970-1978CT SCAN 1971

MRI 1974ENDORPHINS 1975

PERSONAL COMPUTER 1976ONCOGENES 1976RNA SPLICING 1977

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

ARCHAEA 1977GLOBAL WARMING 1970-1980ASTEROID EXTINCTION 1980

DNA FORENSICS 1984UNIVERSE ACCELERATING 1988WORLD WIDE WEB 1989-1992

GAMMA RAY BURSTS 1997Wednesday, May 4, 2011

HOW ABOUT FINANCIAL ENGINEERING

INNOVATIONS?

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS 1995

COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS 1987

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

$CONTINUED

REGULATION--CONCENTRATED

RISK

FINANCIAL DEREGULATION--

DISTRIBUTED RISK

HOUSING MARKET STAGNATION

HOUSING MARKET GROWTH

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Unconsumption

SXSWFrom:Dr. Nita Rollins, FuturistResource Interactive’s RI:Lab

1971 Pierre Wack, Dutch Royal/Shell Head of Planning, France, developed oil supply shock scenario

Text1950-60s Herman Kahn, Rand Corp analyst influenced by Hollywood storytelling

1980s civic & policy orgs, business, military, government use technique for causality

SCENARIO PLANNING BRIEF TIMELINE

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

1.Plot two axes representing forces/drivers that are both highly uncertain and highly impactful

2.Create four scenarios both provocative and plausible

3.Tell a story about each incorporating both the outcomes of these “critical uncertainties” and a few relevant “predetermined elements”, e.g., aging US/Japan/Western European populations

FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNINGUSING A MATRIX

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

“ANALTYIC ABSTRACT THINKING IS IDEAL FOR REPORTING THE REGULAR, THE EXPECTED, THE NORMAL, THE

ORDINARY...

BY CONTRAST, NARRATIVE THINKING...IS IDEALLY SUITED TO DISCUSSING DISRUPTIONS FROM THE ORDINARY, THE

UNEXPECTED, THE CONFLICTS, THE DEVIATIONS, THE SURPRISES, THE UNUSUAL.

SCENARIOS SEARCH FOR AN “AHA EFFECT” THAT OCCURS WHEN MANAGERS SEE A NEW THREAT OR POSSIBILITY, OR A NEW STRATEGY--AN INSIGHT THAT CAN BE LOST AMID A

THOUSAND SPREADSHEETS.”

ADAM GORDON, FUTURE SAVVY: IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS, MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, AND PROFIT FROM CHANGE

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

TWO AXES OF UNCERTAINTY

SOCIALTECHNOLOGICALECONOMICENVIRONMENTALPOLITICAL

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

GROWTHTRANSFORMATIONCONSTRAINTCOLLAPSE

Jim Dator’s Alternative Future ArchetypesWednesday, May 4, 2011

COLLAPSE

GROWTH

CONSTRAINT

TRANSFORMATION

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

COLLAPSECONSTRAINT

GROWTH TRANSFORMATION

Archetypes for the Global Recession of 2008-09

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

GROWTH TRANSFORMATION

CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE

PICK ONE MORE AXIS OF UNCERTAINTY:

BRAIN GAIN BRAIN DRAIN

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

AXES IDEAS:

1. THE COLLAPSE OF PRODUCER-CONTROLLED CONSUMER MARKETS (WATTS WACKER/JIM TAYLOR)

2. INFO-WARS BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW (ALVIN TOFFLER)

3. CHINAMERICA & THE CONNECTED GLOBAL MARKET (NITA ROLLINS)

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

THE GOAL OF A GOOD FORECAST IS NOT THE

CLASSIC QUESTION, “IS IT CORRECT?”

BUT RATHER, “IS IT USEFUL IN

PRODUCING SUCCESS?” Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Thanks and good luck!

s

Dr. Nita RollinsFuturist, Resource Interactive

Wednesday, May 4, 2011