Transcript of Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios Bucharest – 31 October 2009...
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- Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and
Scenarios Bucharest 31 October 2009 Kiira Krkkinen OECD Centre for
Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
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- Outline OECD Process Selected Trends OECD Scenarios
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- Future of Higher Education OECD Process
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- OECD Process OECD Directorate for Education OECD Directorate
for Education Indicators and Analysis Management of Higher
Education Education & Training Policy Centre for Educational
Research and Innovation
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- OECD Process Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
(CERI) Aims to inform long-term educational policy development and
making through Forward-looking research Educational innovation
International exchanges
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- OECD Process Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
(CERI) Although long term thinking in education is important,
educational policy making is often done with a short term
perspective. Two parallel forward looking CERI projects Schooling
for Tomorrow Future of Higher Education University Futures
Institutional synergies
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- OECD Process University Futures Objectives Feed strategic
reflection on major questions Highlight past developments and
recent changes Underline future opportunities and challenges
International standpoint as a special feature
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- OECD Process University Futures Two main types of activity
1.Thematic trends analysis 2.Dialogue with stakeholders and experts
Basis for future scenarios
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- OECD Process University Futures Trends Analysis From 6 initial
themes Demography Technology Globalisation market and quasi-market
forces Academic research Labour market to 3 final reports
Demography Globalisation Technology and 3 cross-cutting themes
market and quasi-market forces Academic research Labour market
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- OECD Process University Futures Dialogue Three types of
meetings Public conferences Stakeholder meetings Small senior-level
expert meetings Some specific outputs Overall, 12 events in 8
countries since 2003 Discussions at the Ministerial level in 2006
Final international conference in 2008
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- OECD Process University Futures Scenarios Scenarios not seen as
predictions of the future. but as a tool to combine several trends
and think about future options in a creative and structured manner.
Where are we going? Where should we go and why? How could we get
there?
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- OECD Process Some Lessons Learned Stakeholder and expert
dialogue brings in new and confirms old ideas reflects and
contrasts different points of view develops common understanding on
key issues and adds political weight on scenarios.
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- OECD Process Some Lessons Learned International comparative
trends help understand dynamics of change in a broader scale
support neutrality of analysis but stay in general level and are
subject to path dependency.
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- OECD Process Some Lessons Learned Institutional synergies help
with process and method support data collection and use.
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- Future of Higher Education Selected Trends
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- Selected Trends Higher Education to 2030 Series Forthcoming
Volume 2: Globalisation Volume 3: Technology Volume 4:
Scenarios
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- Selected Trends Globalisation and Higher Education Higher
education in globalised world Highly skilled workforce Research and
innovation capacity Cross-cultural encounters Global influences on
higher education Mobile students, faculty and institutions
International financing Cross-border flows of idea Simultaneous
forces of competition and collaboration
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- Selected Trends Increase in the Number of Foreign Students
Worldwide and Projections Source: OECD (2009)
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- Selected Trends Number of National Students Abroad and Mobility
Rate to Foreign Countries in 2007 Source: OECD (2009)
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- Selected Trends Destination of Foreign Students in the OECD
Area (%) and Changes (% points) Source: OECD (2009)
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- Selected Trends Breakdown of Foreign Students (%) and Changes
(% points) Source: OECD (2009)
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- Selected Trends Share of World Citations of Science and
Engineering Articles Source: OECD (2009)
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- Selected Trends Percentage of Worldwide Science and Engineering
Articles Coauthored Domestically and Internationally Source: OECD
(2009)
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- Future of Higher Education OECD Scenarios
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- OECDScenarios Four future scenarios by CERI Open networking
Serving local communities New public responsibility Higher
education, Inc.
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- OECD Scenarios Scenario 1 Open Networking Main features
International collaboration and networking leading to harmonization
of systems New approaches to teaching English as lingua franca
International collaborative research, even if within the persistent
hierarchy of institutions Free and open knowledge exchange and
access to research Related developments Bologna Process in Europe
International academic partnerships and consortia Increased
mobility Cheap and fast communication facilitated by the Internet
Developing culture of openness
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- OECD Scenarios Scenario 2 Serving Local Communities Features
Institutions mainly focused on national, regional and/or local
missions Mainly publicly funded and administered systems
Streghtened financial support from local industry and needs- based
lifelong learning Academics are trusted professionals with teaching
as their central objective Convergence between universities and
polytechnics Related developments Scepticism regarding
globalisation, even anti- globalisation movements Emergence of
geo-strategic concerns Interest in preservation of national culture
and fostering social cohesion Interest in regional role of higher
education
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- OECD Scenarios Scenario 3 New Public Responsibility Features
Autonomy of institutions combined with greater use of new public
management tools Significant share of public funding with
increasingly mixed resource base Strong public accountability, but
also more private reward systems Marked diversification of
institutions String national competition for public research
funding Related developments General quest for accountability,
transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management
Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries Cost-sharing
and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate Increasingly
competitive research funding
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- OECD Scenarios Scenario 4 Higher Education Inc. Features
Institutions competing globally on a commercial basis Public
funding exclusively to non- commercially viable disciplines Strong
competition for students with English as a key language of study
Disconnection of research and teaching according to competitive
advantage Concentration of research with worldwide competition for
funding Related developments Trade in higher education and
inclusion of it in trade negotiations Increasing international
mobility of students and cross-border higher education Increase of
cross-border funding of research and private research
activities
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- Serving Local Communities International National Market
Demand-driven Administration Supply-driven Open Networking Higher
Education Inc. New Public Responsibility OECD Scenarios Four
Scenarios for Higher Education Systems
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- Thank You Kiira.Krkkinen@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures