Friday Weather Discussion

Clark Evans5 December 2014

Opening Links

• Water Vapor Satellite Loop (time-sensitive)

• Visible Satellite Loop (time-sensitive)

• Upper Air Charts (1200 UTC 5 Dec 2014)

• Surface Observations (time-sensitive)

Opening Links

• Water Vapor Satellite Loop (time-sensitive)

• Last 7 Days Rainfall (28 Nov-5 Dec)

• N. Hemisphere Wave Guide (22 Nov-7 Dec)

Opening Links

• Western North Pacific IR Satellite Loop

• Super Typhoon Hagupit Background– Observed Track– Observed Intensity

• STY Hagupit Forecasts/Information

Where Have We Been?

Source: NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Where Have We Been?

Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center

Also see: Milwaukee Nov 2014 F6

Where Have We Been?

Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center

Where Have We Been?

Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center (left), New York State Police (right)

Where Are We Going?

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Where Are We Going?

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Where Are We Going?

• Synoptic-Scale Perspective…– 1200 UTC 5 Dec 2014 GFS Forecast– 0000 UTC 5 Dec 2014 ECMWF Forecast– 0000 UTC 5 Dec 2014 ECMWF EPS Forecast• 500 hPa geopotential height• 850 hPa temperature

• For Reference: SPC Sounding Climatology

The MJO: A Possible Influence?

Source: UCAR/COMET (left), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (right)

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The MJO: A Possible Influence?

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

The MJO: A Possible Influence?

Source: Climate Prediction Center

The MJO: A Possible Influence?

Source: Climate Prediction Center

The Longer-Term

• Equatorial Pacific SST/SST’, Sub-Surface T

• Global SST Anomalies

• El Nino Temp, Precip., Snow Composites