© Fraunhofer ISE

European Summer Campus „Energy on all scales“

FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE

Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

02.09.2013

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

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Economic loss through climate induced catastrophes

Grafik: IPCC SREX, Daten: Munich Re

Pressemeldung

im Handelsblatt

für 2011

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Potential emissions from fossil resources

Grafik: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy

Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

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The „Energiewende“ in Germany

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Fighting climate change in the electricity sector

Two options:

A) „Energiewende“: Renewable Energies

B) Nuclear Power Plants

But:

Environmental Risks, Costs and market perspective stand against a „nuclear renaissance“

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Global Power Plant Installations in the Future

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook 2013

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Principles of the EEG

Technology specific feed-in tariff (xx ct/kWh)

Feed-in tariff is adjusted according to cost decrease

Priority for RE production

Power is sold at the EEX

EEG-Umlage paid by ectricity consumers

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Development of wind energy in Germany and France

Source: Koordinierungsstelle Erneuerbare Energien, „Markt und Branchenentwicklung“

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Technological Progress triggert by incentive programs

Source: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

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Development of wind energy in Germany and France

Source: Koordinierungsstelle Erneuerbare Energien, „Markt und Branchenentwicklung“

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Average growth rates of RE technologies

Grafik: BMU nach ZSW mit Daten der Internationalen Energieagentur (IEA)

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Electricity production by source, first 7 months 2013

Installed solar and wind power

40

30

20

10

GW

solar power wind power

34.558 GW30.533 GW

year 2013

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Monthly Production from Solar and Wind in 2012

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX

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Combined power from solar and wind+

Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX

25.000

25.000

30.000

30.000

20.000

20.000

15.000

15.000

5.000

5.0000

10.000

10.000

MW

MW

Wind

Sola

r

Anzeigejahr: 2012

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Actual Electricity Production in May 2012

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dSTATIS

Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar

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Actual Electricity Production in CW 52, 2012

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dSTATIS

Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar

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Actual Electricity Production in CW 21, 2012

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dSTATIS

Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar

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Electricity production by source, first 7 months 2013

80

60

40

20

TWhyear 2013

Electricity production: first seven months 2013

Brown Coal Hard CoalUranium Gas Wind Solar Run of River

52.1 TWh

85.1 TWh

65.5 TWh

23.8 TWh 24.2 TWh19.4 TWh

10.5 TWh

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Prices drop of Solar Modules

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PV Feed-In Tariffs and Electricity Prices in Germany

Source: Harry Wirth, Fraunhofer ISE – „Aktuelle Fakten zur Photovoltaik in Deutschland“

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Future LCOE of Renewable Energies

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Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: BMWi Energiedaten (-2011); DESTATIS (2012);Entso-e (2013, skaliert)

Electricity Import and Export in 2012

Import Export

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Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: BMWi Energiedaten (-2011); DESTATIS (2012);Entso-e (2013, skaliert)

Electricity Import and Export in 2012

Electricity Export and Import

TWh

January February March April May June July August Sept. October Nov. Dec.

year 2013

5.0

6.0

7.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Legend: Import (DESTATIS) Import (Entso-e)Export (DESTATIS) Export (Entso-e)

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Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: DESTATIS (2012)

Electricity Import-Export-Balance since 1990

~ 30 GW wind & PV

~ 60 GW wind & PV

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Some basics about the german electricity market

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A few facts on the German electricity market

Annual cross power production: ~ 590 TWh

Total Generation Capacity: ~ 170 GW

Solar: ~ 33 GW

Wind: ~ 30 GW

Electricity market liberalization in 1998

Since 2002: European Energy Exchange (EEX)

Price and dispatch mechanism: Merit-Order Source: Peter Kaminski

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The Merit-Order M

argi

nal c

osts

of e

lect

ricity

pro

duct

ion

Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants

Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE

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The Merit-Order M

argi

nal c

osts

of e

lect

ricity

pro

duct

ion

Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants

Renewable Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE

Price drop

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Historical Day-Ahead Base- and Peak-Prices

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1.HY2013

€/MWh

Day-Ahead Price, volume weighted & inflation-adjusted (2010 prices), Update: June 2013

Base hours (00:00 - 24:00)

Peak hours (08:00 - 20:00)

Base_h Peak_h

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History of Price Extremes in the Day-Ahead Market

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

€/MWhWeekly Day-Ahead maximum and minimum prices, Update: July 2013

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Negative Electricity Prices in Germany

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Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: March 2013

€ / MWh Period Mean Period Min Period Max Std Deviation

Day-Ahead 38,97 - 50,00 120,20 17,13

Intraday 39,31 - 83,20 110,40 19,04

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Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW 12 2013

€ / MWh Period Mean Period Min Period Max Std Deviation

Day-Ahead 36,12 - 50,00 108,60 21,03

Intraday 36,67 - 83,20 110,40 25,20

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Analysis of the Negative Spot-Prices on 24.03.2013

Over 30 GW Solar and Wind

Nuclear and brown coal power plants not able to reduce power.

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX

14:00-15:00 RoR Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar

Production GW 1,2 9,4 12,9 3,3 4,3 0,3 16,6 14,1

Plant Utiliz.* 32,4 % 78,0 % 71,5 % 16,2 % 22,0 % 2,8 % 54,9 % 42,4 %

*compared to total installed capacity

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Analysis of the Negative Spot-Prices on 24.03.2013

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX

Actual production from wind and solar was higher than projected, the total load was lower than projected the day before. The result was an oversupply with electricity of up to 15 GW.

Su24.03.

Total projection error

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Development of low and negative price periods

Abbildung 1: Anzahl der Niedrigpreisstunden (<= 10 €/MWh und <= 0 €/MWh), 1. Halbjahr

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Plant System Utilization over Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dStatis

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100Day-Ahead Spot-Price in €/MWh

Utilization ratio depending on Day-Ahead Spot-Prices, 1. HY 2013

Uranium Brown Coal Gas Hard Coal

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Nuclear plant utilization including non-availabilities

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dStatis

Planned

non-availability

Unplanned non-availability

Actual

production

Sum

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Flexibility of conventional power plants

Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas

Cold start - - - 0 ++

Warm Start - 0 + ++

Load change rate + 0 + ++

Minimum Load - - + +

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Change of electricity production by source

TWh

Brown Coal Hard CoalUranium Gas Wind Solar Run of River

Change in electricity production: first seven months 2013 versus first seven months 2012

2.0

4.0

6.0

-8,0

-2,0

-4,0

-6,0

+4.8 TWh+2.7 TWh

+0.13 TWh

-5.6 TWh

-3.3 TWh

+1.3 TWh+0.05 TWh

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Price curve of European Union Allowances (EUAs)

Source: www.boerse.de

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Conclusion

The EEG was very succesfull in kick-starting renewable energies

Costs for PV and wind systems reduced significantly

Negative Prices show upcoming system conflict

More flexibility in the power system is necessary

Development of a new electricity market design

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Thank-you for your attention!

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

johannes.nikolaus.mayer@ise.fraunhofer.de