Post on 14-Dec-2015
Founders & Initiators of the 3 Studies
Dr James W B Douglas
Professor Neville Butler
Dr Mia Kellmer Pringle
Professor Eva Alberman
Professor Geoffrey Chamberlain
Periods & ages of data collection in the 3 studies
Age at data collection
3rd – 9th March 1946
(N=5,362)
3rd – 9th March 1958
(N=17,414)
5th – 11th April 1970
(N=17,198)
Birth 1946 1958 1970 1-5 yrs 1946-51 1958-63 1970-75 6-16 yrs 1952-62 1964-74 1976-86 Early adulthood 17-30 yrs
1963-76 1975-88 1987-2000
Early & middle adulthood 31-50 yrs
1977-66 1989-2008 2001-2020
Later middle adulthood 51-65 yrs
1997-2011 2009-2023 2021-2035
Later life 66+ 2012- 2024- 2036-
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fathers, 1946 cohort - 1950
Fathers, 1958 cohort - 1965
Fathers, 1970 cohort - 1975
Sons born 1946 in 1978
Sons, born 1958, 1991
Sons, born 1970 in 2000
I Professional II Intermediate III-non Junior White Collar
III-man Skilled Manual IV Semi skilled manual V Unskilled Manual
The changing social class structure of jobs
Periods & ages of data collection in the 3 studies
Age at data collection
3rd – 9th March 1946
(N=5,362)
3rd – 9th March 1958
(N=17,414)
5th – 11th April 1970
(N=17,198)
Birth 1946 1958 1970 1-5 yrs 1946-51 1958-63 1970-75 6-16 yrs 1952-62 1964-74 1976-86 Early adulthood 17-30 yrs
1963-76 1975-88 1987-2000
Early & middle adulthood 31-50 yrs
1977-66 1989-2008 2001-2020
Later middle adulthood 51-65 yrs
1997-2011 2009-2023 2021-2035
Later life 66+ 2012- 2024- 2036-
Percentage gaining degrees or other tertiary qualifications
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Age 32 in 1978 Age 33 in 1991 Age 30 in 2000
1946 1958 1970
Pe
rce
nta
ge
men
women
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
I II III nm III m IV V No father
Father's class in childhood
Per
cent
age
1970 men
1970 women
1958 men
1958 women
1946 men
1946 women
Percentage with tertiary qualifications by father's class
Percentage of sons in same occupation as fathers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1946cohortat 32
1958cohortat 33
1970cohortat 30
1946cohortat 43
1958cohortat 42
Pe
rce
nta
ge
I
II
III-n
III-m
IV
V
Total
Intermediate
Skilled Manual
Total
Professional
Semi-skilled manual
Junior non-manual
Unskilled
Women labour market states 16-30
1958 COHORT
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age
1970 COHORT
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Age
Unemployed
Out of the labour force
Part time work
Full time work
Government training
Full time education
0
20
40
60
80
1946 atage 32
1958 atage 33
1970 atage 30
1946 atage 43
1958 atage 42
Cohort and age
Per
cent
age
Part-time
Full-time
Employment rates of mothers with a child under 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
born 1946 (32) born 1958 (33) born 1970 (30)
£ p
er
ho
ur,
20
01
pri
ce
s
MenWomen
Average hourly pay
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
born 1946 (32) born 1958 (33) born 1970 (30)
Ra
tio Men
Women
Pay gap: 90/10 ratio
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0 5 10 15 20 25
£ per hour, 2001 prices
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f s
am
ple
Men
Women
Raw pay gap: 49%
Gender pay gap: born 1946
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0 5 10 15 20 25
£ per hour, 2001 prices
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f s
am
ple
Men
Women
Raw pay gap: 37%
Gender pay gap: born 1958
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0 5 10 15 20 25
£ per hour, 2001 prices
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f s
am
ple
Men
Women
Raw pay gap: 20%
Gender pay gap: born 1970
MEN
0
25
50
75
100
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Age
Per
cen
tage
WOMEN
0
25
50
75
100
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Age
Per
cen
tage
1946 cohort
1958 cohort
1970 cohort
Age at first birth
MEN
0
25
50
75
100
1970 cohort 1958 cohort 1946 cohort
Pe
rce
nta
ge
WOMEN
0
25
50
75
100
1970cohort
1958cohort
1946cohort
Per
cen
tage
Own
Shared own
Rent LA/HA
Rent private
Rent free
Other
Tenure in the early 30s
Mean birth weight (kg) in the three cohorts
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
1946 1958 1970
We
igh
t (k
g)
Men
Women
Average (mean) childhood height (cm) in relation to father’s social class
Father’s social class1946 cohort at 7
years (1951)1958 cohort at 7
years (1965)1970 cohort at 10
years (1980)
MALES
I 123 124 140
II 121 124 140
IIInm 121 123 138
IIIm 119 123 138
IV 119 123 138
V 117 121 138
All classes 120 123 139FEMALES
I 122 124 139
II 121 123 139
IIInm 120 123 139
IIIm 118 122 138
IV 118 122 138
V 117 121 137
All classes 119 112 139
Cohort differences in breast-feeding: % breast-fed for 1 month or more
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Per
cen
tag
e
1946 cohort1958 cohort1970 cohort
Age in years 1946 study 1958 study 1970 study
MALES
15 0.3 (1961)
16 0.9 (1974) 1.6 (1986)
30 12.0 (2000)
33 12 (1991)
36 5.0 (1982)
43 10.0 (1984)
53 23.0 (1999)
FEMALES
15 1.6 (1961)
16 1.3 (1974) 2.1 (1986)
30 11.0 (2000)
33 12.0 (1991)
36 7.0 (1982)
43 14.0 (1984)
53 27.0 (1999)
% obesity (BMI30)
1946
cohort (36 years 1982)
1946
cohort (43 years 1989)
1958
cohort (33 years 1991)
1958
cohort (42 years 2000)
1970
cohort (30 years 2000)
MEN
Asthma 3 6 8 10 13
High blood pressure
3 9 5 11 5
WOMEN
Asthma 3 6 10 12 14
High blood pressure
5 13 6 12 10
Reports (%) of physical illnesses
1946 Cohort
(36 years 1992)
1946 Cohort
(43 years 1989)
1958 Cohort
(33 years 1991)
1958 cohort
(42 years 2000)
1970 cohort
(30 years 2000)
MEN
Depression & anxiety*
8 10 7 14 14
Trouble with nerves etc
8 15 7 15 13
WOMEN
Depression & anxiety*
18 16 12 21 20
Trouble with nerves etc
16 28 19 29 29
*PSE and PSF in 1946 cohort, Malaise in 1958 and 1970 cohorts
Reports (%) of mental illness
14
4
17
5
16
8
17
8
0
10
20
Men Women
1989 (1946 cohort age 43)
1991 (1958 cohort age 33)2000 (1958 cohort age 42)
2000 (1970 cohort age 30)
Mean number of alcohol units consumed by men and women in a week
Percentage of drug use by men and women
10
6
26
13
40
26
64
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Men Women
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Current use 2000 (1958 cohortage 42)
Current use 2000 (1970 cohortage 30)
Ever used 2000 (1958 cohortage 42)
Ever used 2000 (1970 cohortage 30)
Current membership of an organisation in three cohorts by occupation group: women
0
20
40
60
80
I II III nm III m IV VSocial class (own occupation)
Per
cen
tag
e
1946 cohort age 36
1958 cohort age 33
1958 cohort age 42
1970 cohort age 30
Political Apathy
0
20
40
60
I II III nm III m IV V
Social class (own occupation)
Per
cen
tag
e
1958 cohort age 331958 cohort age 421970 cohort age 30
Belief that ‘I never really seem to get what I want out of life’ in 3 cohorts by occupation group: men
0
10
20
30
40
50
I II III nm III m IV V
Social class (own occupation)
Per
cen
tag
e
1958 cohort age 331958 cohort age 421970 cohort age 30
Type of contact with the police in 3 cohorts: men
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mov
ed o
n
Stopp
ed a
nd ques
tioned
Let o
ff with
a w
arnin
g
Arrest
ed
Form
ally c
autio
ned
Guilty
by a
cou
rt
Type of police contact (data for 1946 cohort combines those formally cautioned and found guilty by court of
law)
Pe
rce
nta
ge
1946 cohort
1958 cohort
1970 cohort
0
10
20
30
40
50
NVQ 4 – NVQ6
NVQ 2 Noqualifications
Highest qualification
Per
cen
tag
e 1958 cohort
1970 cohort
Experience of ever been arrested in two cohorts by highest qualification: men
Personal identity
Qualifications
Knowledge
Skills
Civic Participation
Health
Plans / goals
Friends / Networks
Family
Attitudes and values(e.g. trust)
Self concept
Motivation to learn
Enjoyment
Human capital Social capital
1. Other forms of capital:-Cultural capitalEconomic capitalEmotional capital
2. Structural constraints
CAPITALS IN MOTION
Take-up of learning between 33 and 42P
rop
ort
ion
number of courses 0 3 6 9 12 15
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
Percentages participating in types of courses
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
acad.accr.
voc.accr.
wk-rel.
leis. acc. basicskills
govt.train.
course type
Associations between participation in learning (number of courses taken) and changes in health outcomes
Outcome Estimate P-value Mean change Estimate/mean
Gave up smoking
.003 .197 .28 1%
Change in units drunk
.044 .151 -.71 -6%
Increased exercise
.004 .006 .41 1%
Change in life-sat.
.007 .007 -.22 -3%
Became depressed
.001 .409 .09 1%
Exited from depression
.002 .752 .41 0%
Associations between participation in learning (number of courses taken) and changes in social capital and cohesion outcomes
Outcome Estimate P-value Mean change Estimate/mean
Change race tolerance
.013 .000 .19 7%
Change pol. Cynicism
-.002 .150 .44 0%
Change support auth
-.009 .000 .26 -3%
Increased pol. Int .003 .008 .19 2%
Increased no. mbrshps
.003 .000 .12 3%
Voted in 97 abstd 87
.007 .036 .5 1%
General trust and memberships
DEN
NL
SW
IRL
FIN
CAN
PO
UK
B
POR
NWD
SZ
AU
US
.00
.20
.40
.60
.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00
General trust
Mem
bers
hips
Test score ratio and income inequality
NL
DENSW
FIN
AU
D
B
CAN
PORUSA
IRL
UKNW
POSZ
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00
Test score ratio
Inco
me
ineq
ualit
y
Income inequality and general trust
US
POR
UK
PO
SZ
AU
IRL
D
CAN
NL
B
FIN
SWDEN
NW
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00
Income inequality
Gen
eral
trus
t
Income inequality and violent crime
SW
DEN
B NW
FIN
SZ AU
PO
D
POR
CAN
IRL
NL
UK
US
.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00
Income inequality
Viole
nt cr
ime
Social capital and income inequality
NL
AU
ECANSK
FR TUUKIRL
POR
B
I
FINJA
DSWNW
SZ
INDNI
CHI
BRZ
MXSA
USA
DEN
.00
.20
.40
.60
.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00
Gini coefficient
Soci
al c
apita
l
Figure 1. Relationship between Social Cohesion and Education Inequality
Fi Swe Au Ca Pol
Ir Be
Ge
UK US
Por
Swt Ne
De
Nw
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
Education Inequality
Social Cohesion Index
Learning effects on social capital (joining, volunteering and engagement)
Learning Joining
volunteering civic engagement
Cognitive resources (knowledge, skills etc) Adapted from R. Nie
Status Network centrality
Learning effects on social cohesion
Labour market structures:
Union density and compassReach of collective agreementsMinimum wage
Income dispersal
Dispersal of outcomes Social Cohesion
TrustCivic cooperation
Learning
Socialization
1970 BRITISH COHORT STUDY1970 BRITISH COHORT STUDY
0 5 10 16 21 26 30