Forecast working group « Apples and pears »

10/03/2008

European Commission – DG AGRI – Unit C.2

2

Outline

I. New elements in the statistical working documents.

1. Data on prices – more detailed.

2. Data on trade – switching from EU evolutionary to EU 27 simulated (COMEXT data).

II. EU imports of fresh apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia.

3

I.1. Data on apples and pears prices - more detailed

Details by main varieties Details by representative markets

NB: It is not always appropriate to compare prices in different MS as they may have chosen different methodology to record prices pursuant to Regulation 877/2004.

4

Old way of presenting prices in the DTR – one average price per MS including all varieties and markets

GRAPHIQUE 5.1 : Prix à la production - Italie (€/100 kg)

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00

80,00

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

5

New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by individual variety on main EU markets

Graph 5.22: Prix à la production de pommes - Gala Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

juil

05ao

ût 0

5se

pt 0

5oc

t 05

nov

05dé

c 05

janv

06

févr

06

mar

s 06

avr

06m

ai 0

6ju

in 0

6ju

il 06

août

06

sept

06

oct 0

6no

v 06

déc

06ja

nv 0

7fé

vr 0

7m

ars

07av

r 07

mai

07

juin

07

juil

07ao

ût 0

7se

pt 0

7oc

t 07

nov

07dé

c 07

janv

08

févr

08

mar

s 08

avr

08m

ai 0

8ju

in 0

8

€/1

00

kg

AT (Gleisdorf)

BE (Sint Truiden)

DE (Niedersachsen)

ES (Girona)

ES (Lleida)

FR (Rhône-Méditarranée)

FR (Sud-Ouest)

FR (Val de Loire)

HU (Budapest)

IT (Bolzano)

NL(Geldermalsen)

PL (Lubelsko-Sandomierski)

PL (Grojecko-Warecki)

PT (Oeste)

6

New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by individual variety on main EU markets

Graph 5.23: Prix à la production de pommes - Golden Delicious Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

€/10

0kg

AT (Gleisdorf)

BE (Sint Truiden)

DE (Niedersachsen)

ES (Girona)

ES (Lleida)

FR (Rhône-Méditarranée)

FR (Val de Loire)

HU (Budapest)

IT (Bolzano)

NL (Geldermalsen)

PL (Lubelsko-Sandomierski)

PL (Grojecko-Warecki)

PT (Oeste)

7

New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS

Graph 5.35: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) IT - Italie

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Elstar

Gala

Golden Delicious

Granny Smith

Jonagold

Red Delicious

8

New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS

Graph 5.34: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) FR - France

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Elstar

Gala

Golden Delicious

Granny Smith

9

New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS

Graph 5.31: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) BE - Belgique

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Elstar

Gala

Golden Delicious

Granny Smith

Idared

Jonagold

Red Delicious

10

Graph 5.13: Prix à la production de poires - Conférence Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

€/10

0kg

BE (Sint Truiden)

ES (Lleida)

ES (Zaragoza)

FR (Angers)

FR (Valence)

HU (Budapest)

IT (Ferrera)

IT (Modena)

NL (Geldermalsen)

PL (Grojecko-Warecki)

11

Graph 5.14: Prix à la production de poires - Doyenné du Comice Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

€/10

0kg

BE (Sint Truiden)

ES (Lleida)

FR (Angers)

FR (Avignon)

FR (Valence)

IT (Ferrera)

IT (Modena)

NL (Geldermalsen)

12

Graph 5.22: Prix à la production de poires pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) ES - Espagne

0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00

80,00

90,00

Abate Fétel

Blanquilla

Conférence

Doyonné du Comice

Williams (Bon Chrétien)

13

Graph 5.24: Prix à la production de poires pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) IT - Italie

0,00

20,00

40,00

60,00

80,00

100,00

120,00

140,00

Abate Fétel

Conférence

Doyonné du Comice

Williams (Bon Chrétien)

14

2. Data on trade – switching from EU evolutionary to EU 27 simulated

The simulation disregards the date on which MS joined the EU (data available from 1999 onwards);

Extra EU 27 trade excludes the quantities exchanged between old and new MS but includes new MS’s trade with third countries;

Intra EU 27 trade includes the quantities traded between all 27 MS.

15

Extra EU trade in fresh apples - EU 27 simulated (T)

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

1.000.000

1.100.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Imports EU 27simulated

Exports EU 27simulated

Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)

16

EU imports of fresh apples (T)

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Imports EUevolutionary

Imports EU 27simulated

17

EU exports of fresh apples (T)

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

1.000.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Exports EUevolutionary

Exports EU 27simulated

18

II. EU imports of fresh apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia

19

Extra EU imports of fresh table apples (T)

Share in total2007

New Zealand 220.032 178.240 177.161 -0,6% 19,8%Chile 225.465 224.645 204.113 -9,1% 22,8%South Africa 156.842 151.872 158.379 4,3% 17,7%Argentina 121.536 97.640 107.248 9,8% 12,0%USA 39.857 30.600 28.610 -6,5% 3,2%Brazil 88.323 53.456 104.403 95,3% 11,6%Canada 5.558 4.460 2.083 -53,3% 0,2%Australia 2.136 2.940 1.294 -56,0% 0,1%Switzerland 690 971 2.324 139,4% 0,3%

FJR Macedonia 8.294 24.146 33.689 39,5% 3,8% Serbia 306 282 24.597 8637,8% 2,7% Croatia 9 18 2.723 15284,2% 0,3%Turkey 551 607 230 -62,1% 0,0%Uruguay 6.662 3.596 6.174 71,7% 0,7%China 50.408 33.649 42.063 25,0% 4,7%Iran 217 322 174 -46,0% 0,0%South Korea 0 0 - Namibia 21 0 - Autres 3.926 6.974 1.280 -81,6% 0,1%TOTAL 930.831 814.417 896.543 10,1% 100,0%Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)

2005 2006 2007 07/06

20

Share of hemispheres in total EU imports of table apples

2005 2006 2007South Hemisphere 88,2% 87,5% 84,6%North Hemisphere 11,8% 12,5% 15,4%

Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)

21

Extra EU imports of fresh table apples by hemisphere (T)

Share in total2007

Hémisph. Sud 821.017 712.389 758.771 6,5% 100,0%New Zealand 220.032 178.240 177.161 -0,6% 23,3%Chile 225.465 224.645 204.113 -9,1% 26,9%South Africa 156.842 151.872 158.379 4,3% 20,9%Argentina 121.536 97.640 107.248 9,8% 14,1%Brazil 88.323 53.456 104.403 95,3% 13,8%Australia 2.136 2.940 1.294 -56,0% 0,2%Uruguay 6.662 3.596 6.174 71,7% 0,8%

Share in total2007

Hémisph. Nord 109.814 102.028 137.772 35,0% 100,0%USA 39.857 30.600 28.610 -6,5% 20,8%Canada 5.558 4.460 2.083 -53,3% 1,5%China 50.408 33.649 42.063 25,0% 30,5%Switzerland 690 971 2.324 139,4% 1,7%

FJR Macedonia 8.294 24.146 33.689 39,5% 24,5% Serbia 306 282 24.597 8637,9% 17,9% Croatia 9 18 2.723 15282,5% 2,0%Turkey 551 607 230 -62,2% 0,2%Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)

2005 2006 2007 07/06

2005 2006 2007 07/06

22

EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia (T)

PartnerDeclarant/period 2005 2006 2007 2007/06 2005 2006 2007 2007/06

France 0 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0Fr Germany 0 0 0 0 0 0Italy 0 0 0 0 0 0Utd. Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 37 5 0 -100% 0 0 0Greece 75 258 899 249% 0 0 0Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0Sweden 3 0 5 0 1 0 -100%Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0Austria 0 0 0 111 0 333Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 0Poland 0 0 455 0 0 19.177Czech Republic 0 0 0 11 0 266Slovakia 0 0 898 0 0 109Hungary 0 0 1.534 0 0 4.321Romania 81 9.428 7.253 -23% 155 0 264Bulgaria 8.098 14.456 22.869 58% 0 194 410 112%Slovenia 0 0 10 28 87 21 -76%Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0EU-27 8.294 24.146 33.923 40% 306 282 24.901 8746%

Source: COMEXT (EU-27 simulated)* Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006

For.JRep. Macedonia Serbia*

23

EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from Serbia and FJR Macedonia (T)

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

Sep

. 200

4O

ct. 2

004

Nov

. 200

4D

ec. 2

004

Jan.

200

5Fe

b. 2

005

Mar

. 200

5A

pr. 2

005

May

. 200

5Ju

n. 2

005

Jul.

2005

Aug

. 200

5S

ep. 2

005

Oct

. 200

5N

ov. 2

005

Dec

. 200

5Ja

n. 2

006

Feb.

200

6M

ar. 2

006

Apr

. 200

6M

ay. 2

006

Jun.

200

6Ju

l. 20

06A

ug. 2

006

Sep

. 200

6O

ct. 2

006

Nov

. 200

6D

ec. 2

006

Jan.

200

7Fe

b. 2

007

Mar

. 200

7A

pr. 2

007

May

. 200

7Ju

n. 2

007

Jul.

2007

Aug

. 200

7S

ep. 2

007

Oct

. 200

7N

ov. 2

007

Dec

. 200

7

FJR Macedonia

Serbia*

Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated); *Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006

24

EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from FJR Macedonia

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

Sep

. 200

4O

ct. 2

004

Nov

. 200

4D

ec. 2

004

Jan.

200

5F

eb. 2

005

Mar

. 200

5A

pr. 2

005

May

. 200

5Ju

n. 2

005

Jul.

2005

Aug

. 200

5S

ep. 2

005

Oct

. 200

5N

ov. 2

005

Dec

. 200

5Ja

n. 2

006

Feb

. 200

6M

ar. 2

006

Apr

. 200

6M

ay. 2

006

Jun.

200

6Ju

l. 20

06A

ug. 2

006

Sep

. 200

6O

ct. 2

006

Nov

. 200

6D

ec. 2

006

Jan.

200

7F

eb. 2

007

Mar

. 200

7A

pr. 2

007

May

. 200

7Ju

n. 2

007

Jul.

2007

Aug

. 200

7S

ep. 2

007

Oct

. 200

7N

ov. 2

007

Dec

. 200

7

T

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

€/kg

imports - T

unit value -€/kg

Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)

25

EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from Serbia*

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

Sep

. 200

4O

ct. 2

004

Nov

. 200

4D

ec. 2

004

Jan.

200

5F

eb. 2

005

Mar

. 200

5A

pr. 2

005

May

. 200

5Ju

n. 2

005

Jul.

2005

Aug

. 200

5S

ep. 2

005

Oct

. 200

5N

ov. 2

005

Dec

. 200

5Ja

n. 2

006

Feb

. 200

6M

ar. 2

006

Apr

. 200

6M

ay. 2

006

Jun.

200

6Ju

l. 20

06A

ug. 2

006

Sep

. 200

6O

ct. 2

006

Nov

. 200

6D

ec. 2

006

Jan.

200

7F

eb. 2

007

Mar

. 200

7A

pr. 2

007

May

. 200

7Ju

n. 2

007

Jul.

2007

Aug

. 200

7S

ep. 2

007

Oct

. 200

7N

ov. 2

007

Dec

. 200

7

T

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

€/kg

imports - T

unit value -€/kg

Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated); *Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006

26

EU-27 imports of fresh cider apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia (T)

Partner

Declarant/period 2005 2006 2007 2007/06 2005 2006 2007 2007/06France 0 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0Fr Germany 0 0 0 61 1.224 606 -51%Italy 0 0 0 0 0 118Utd. Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 0 0 0 0 0 0Greece 0 1 0 -100% 0 0 0Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0Sweden 5 0 0 0 0 0Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0Austria 0 0 482 0 0 250Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 0Poland 0 0 42 0 0 128Czech Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0Slovakia 0 0 311 0 0 0Hungary 0 0 2.739 1.257 0 13.796Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0Bulgaria 2.552 5.582 5.501 -1% 0 0 297Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 70Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0EU-27 2.557 5.583 9.076 63% 1.318 1.224 15.264 1147%Source: COMEXT (EU-27 simulated)* Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006

FJR Macedonia Serbia*