Sea Level Rise Sinks Mississippi Home Values by More Than $263 Million

FirstStreet.org

For Immediate Release: December 3, 2018

Scientists from First Street Foundation and Columbia University analyzed recent housing market trends in Mississippi and found home values lost $263.8 million from 2005 to 2017 due to sea level rise fl ooding. Bay St. Louis showed the greatest property value loss, totaling $95.4 million. There, the average impacted home would be worth 49% more if tidal fl ooding were not a risk. Pass Christian had the second highest loss at $26.8 million, followed by Kiln at $24.9 million. Homeowners can use FloodiQ.com to look up their personal home value loss as well as the total loss for their city.

The Mississippi analysis expands on the Foundation’s previous research on other states which has been widely covered by The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Axios, The Washington Post, and The Christian Science Monitor.

The research is based on peer reviewed methodology, established by Steven A. McAlpine, Head of Data Science at First Street Foundation, and Dr. Jeremy R. Porter, a Columbia University professor and First Street Foundation statistical consultant. Their original analysis of the Miami-Dade County real estate market, published in the journal Population Research and Policy Review, showed $465 million was lost from 2005 to 2016 due to sea level rise fl ooding. McAlpine and Porter have since created 15 housing market-specifi c models to cover Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, as well as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Mississippi and Alabama. By analyzing approximately 10 million real estate transactions, and applying the results to 20 million properties, the researchers have found a $14.6 billion loss in home values across those ten states.

The Mississippi fi ndings come from a study that also analyzed home values in Alabama. That state lost $157 million in home values due to sea level rise fl ooding. The Alabama results have also been integrated into First Street’s Flood iQ tool.

McAlpine and Porter’s research is the fi rst to quantify the observed negative impact of sea level rise on the housing market. Other models have forecasted the future impact of sea level rise fl ooding on coastal properties, but this is the fi rst to demonstrate value loss that has already occurred. By taking into account characteristics associated with home value, such as square footage and proximity to amenities, and accounting for economic trends like the 2008 housing recession, the scientists were able to isolate the impact that increased frequent tidal fl ooding, caused by sea level rise, has had on home value. While some of the aff ected homes did appreciate over the studied period, they did so at a signifi cantly lower rate than comparable homes unaff ected by tidal fl ooding.

“In Bay St. Louis the average impacted home would be worth 49% more if tidal fl ooding were not a risk, and in Kiln 41% more,” said McAlpine. “These are the hardest hit neighborhoods in Mississippi because homes and roads are at low elevations and sea level rise is increasing the frequency of fl ooding along the Jourdan River.”

The research is also the fi rst to fi nd that in addition to direct property-lot fl ooding, nearby road fl ooding also has a major impact on home value.

“As we have expanded our study, the results have been incredibly consistent,” said Porter. “Americans across 10 states have already lost $14.6 billion from increased fl ooding caused by sea level rise, and all signs are pointing to this being an accelerating trend.”

“What has made this research truly striking for people is its integration with Flood iQ,” said Matthew Eby, Executive Director of First Street Foundation.”People can look up their personal addresses and learn just how much value they have lost due to sea level rise fl ooding. It’s powerful, and in some cases, devastating.”

First Street Foundation is a 501(c)(3) tech nonprofi t that quantifi es and communicates the impacts of sea level rise and fl ooding.

Flood iQ visualizes your risk of fl ooding today and up to 15 years in the future as sea levels rise.

Carolyn Costello 323.384.7098carolyn@fi rststreet.org

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Top Ten Impacted Mississippi Cities

Mississippi Property Loss by Zip Code

BiloxiGulfport

Bay St. Louis

-$120M-$40M-$10M

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A:Shoreline ParkFrequent Tidal Flooding Today

B:Shoreline ParkFrequent Tidal Flooding Today

A:Shoreline ParkFrequent Tidal Flooding in 15 Years

B:Shoreline ParkFrequent Tidal Flooding in 15 Years

Bay St. Louis Tidal Flooding Today and in 15 Years

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