Fertility

Worldwide

0.6

0.9

1.82.0 2.0

1.3

0

1

2

3

1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050

Bill

ion

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

ma

n

Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

• The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050.• The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline.• Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age.

Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility

Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction

Average number of children per woman

5.75.25.4

6.46.4

8.5

5.3

3.3

6.2

3.1

2.4 2.1

4.3

2.5

Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1970-1975 2000-2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Migration

• 1. Types of Migration– What are the major forms of migration?

• 2. Selective Migration– Why migration can be considered as a selective

process?• 3. Brain Drain

– What is the extent of movements of skilled labor?

Types of Migration• Emigration and immigration

– Change in residence.– Relative to origin and

destination.

• Requires information– People and conditions.– Two different places.– Two different times.

• Duration– Permanent.– Seasonal / Temporary.

• Choice / constraint– Improve one’s life.– Leave inconvenient /

threatening conditions.

A

B

Problems or benefits?

Problems or benefits?

Emigrant

Immigrant

Types of Migration• Gross migration

– Total number of people coming in and out of an area.

– Level of population turnover.

• Net Migration– Difference between immigration

(in-migration) and emigration (out-migration).

– Positive value:• More people coming in.• Population growth.

– 44% of North America and 88% of Europe.

– Negative value:• More people coming out.• Population decline.

Emigration

Immigration

Net migration

Gross migration

Annual Net International Migration by Continent, 1990-95

-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America andCarribean

North America

Oceania

Net Migration, 2000-05

3,000

Net Migration (1,000s)

NA

Negative net migration

Positive net migration

Types of Migration

• International Migration– Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or social

failures of a society.– Crossing of a national boundary.– Easier to control and monitor.– Laws to control / inhibit these movements.– Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate each

year.– Between 1965 and 2000, 175 million people have

migrated:• 3% of the global population.

Migration Policies and Global Migration Patterns

Period Policies Pattern

Before 1914 Open policies (“showing up”). Immigration as a source of labor and development.

From developed (Europe) to developing countries (Americas, Africa, Australia). Immigration from Europe between 1880 and 1910 was exceeded 25 million.

1920s and 1930s

“Closed door” linked with the economic depression. Deportation of immigrants.

Limited migration.

After 1945 More open policies. Reconstruction in Europe (12% of labor force) and economic growth in America.

Beginning to shift from developing to developed countries (12%).

After 1973 Relatively open policies, but with more stringent requirements. Growth of refugees and illegal immigration.

From developing to developed countries (88%). 3 million illegal immigrants entering the US per year.

World Migration Routes Since 1700

European

African (slaves)IndianChineseJapanese Majority of population descended from immigrants

Major International Migration Patterns, 1990s

NA

Negative net migration

Positive net migration

International Migration: Main Destination Countries, 1997

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

United States

Germany

Japan

Britain

Canada

France

% of foreign population

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

Immigration, 1997

% Foreign populationImmigration, 1997

Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population: 1850 to 2000

20001990198019701960193019201910190018901880187018601850

.

Not ReportedNorthern AmericaLatin AmericaAfricaAsiaEurope

Types of Migration• Local Migration

– No state boundaries are crossed.

– Buying a new house in the same town or city.

– Difficult to research since they are usually missed in census data.

– Based on change of income or lifestyle.

– Often very high levels of local migration.

– Americans change residence every 5 to 7 years.

Central City

Suburb

Types of Migration

• Voluntary migration– The migrant makes the decision to move.– Most migration is voluntary.

• Involuntary– Forced migration in which the mover has no role

in the decision-making process.– Slavery:

• About 11 million African slaves were brought to the Americas between 1519 and 1867.

• In 1860, there were close to 4 million slaves in the United States.

– Refugees.– Military conscription.– Children of migrants.– Situations of divorce or separation.

Types of MigrationType Characteristics

International Crossing a boundary; easier to control; regulated; difference in income; 2-3 million per year.

National Between states or provinces; little control; employment opportunities; education; retirement.

Local Within a city/region; change of income or lifestyle.

Voluntary The outcome of a choice.

Involuntary The outcome of a constraint.

Population Pyramid of Native and Foreign Born Population,Europe

2000 (in %)

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

Percent

Male Female FemaleMale

Foreign BornNative

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0- 4

5- 9

10- 14

15- 19

20- 24

25- 29

30- 34

35- 39

40- 44

45- 49

50- 54

55- 59

60- 64

65- 69

70- 74

75- 79

80- 84

85+

Percent

Age

Brain Drain

• Definition– Relates to educationally specific selective

migrations.– Some countries are losing the most educated

segment of their population.– Can be both a benefit for the receiving country

and a problem to the country of origin.• Receiving country

– Getting highly qualified labor contributing to the economy right away.

– Promotes economic growth in strategic sectors: science and technology.

– Not having to pay education and health costs.– 30% of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.

World Urban Population, 1950-2000 with Projections to 2020 (in

billions)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Developing countries

Developed countries

Annual Growth of World and Urban Populations, 1950-2030 (in

millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

World

Urban