Maturity Curves Maturity Curves

Predictive Lifetime ValueNANIGANS

Predictive Lifetime ValueNANIGANS

INVEST IN YOUR MOSTVALUABLE CUSTOMERS

THE THREE PILLARS OF SUCCESSFUL AD CAMPAIGNS

OPTIMIZATIONOPTIMIZATIONAssign a value to downstream eventsOptimize toward profitability with RTB algorithms

TARGETINGTARGETINGKnown customersLookalikesInterestsConnectionsBehavior

CREATIVECREATIVEAestheticsMessagingCall to actionSocial context Relevancy

Affinity ModelsAffinity Models Find new customers who share similarities with your most profitable customers.

Cohort Analysis Cohort Analysis Understand performance over time (days, weeks, months) and apply learnings to current or future campaigns.

Understand how customers purchase over time by buildingmaturity curves. Immediately track ROI and determine highvalue customers.

La^�l�hg^�h_�rhnk��[^lm�\nlmhf^klShe costs $10 to acquire (43% higher than John)She purchases a t-shirt today for $10Over the next eight weeks she purchasesa dress ($40) and a skirt ($30)Total purchase amount is $80

He costs $7 to acquireHe purchases a t-shirt for $10 and sunglasses today for $20He makes no additional purchasesTotal purchase amount is $30

3Predictive Lifetime ValueOptimization Techniques3

THIS IS JOHNTHIS IS JOHN THIS IS MIKETHIS IS ANNE

Hours After Click

Purc

hase

Rev

enue

0 10

50

100

150

200

250

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

High Affinity- Females, age 25

Low Affinity- Males, age 25

Expand targeting into audiences with the highest affinity overlap

CPA based bidding always targets the least expensive customer (John) instead of the most valuable customerover time (Anne). Marketers should be willing to pay more for Anne as her customer value over time will

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Number of Audiences

http://www.nanigans.comCreated by: Shaun McGrath, Laurie Cutts

LEARN MORE ABOUT PREDICTIVE LIFETIME VALUE

Affi

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:�e^Z]bg`�k^mZbe^k�l�?Z\^[hhd�Z]o^kmblbg`�\nlmhf^k�Z\jnblbmbhg�campaign delivered 6x greater ROI when optimizing for lifetime value (LTV) rather than CPA.

Predictive lifetime value can help you understand how valuablecustomers are - and how much you should spend to acquire them.GZgb`Zgl��:]�>g`bg^�bl�ma^�hger�LZZL�ieZm_hkf�maZm�f^Zlnk^l%�predicts and optimizes ad spend for lifetime ROI across desktopand mobile.

Predictive Lifetime ValueInsights

CPA

LTV0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

54% ROI

348% ROI

Predictive lifetime value projects the amount of revenue or profit a customer generates over time, so you can

understand their long-term value right away.

Day 1Day 2Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 9Day 10Day 11Day 12Day 13

Oct 1Cohort

Oct 2Cohort

Oct 3Cohort

Oct 4Cohort

Oct 5Cohort

Oct 6Cohort

Oct 7Cohort

Oct 8Cohort

Oct 9CohortYield

Purchases RevenueFB Spend $64,384.73

$151,864.81

3998

118.79%134.54%143.39%157.72%176.79%180.41%186.41%196.25%208.12%211.17%218.86%224.90%236.75%

$61,473.70

$148,453.95

3,990

126.79%145.50%158.34%178.81%187.26%202.31%212.41%223.50%231.51%234.64%236.56%238.91%

$61,266.62

$224,413.50

4,903

167.37%185.68%203.54%213.63%222.97%232.11%241.18%246.64%267.29%272.74%278.07%

$66,999.73

$175,225.70

3,730

143.30%172.21%189.18%200.69%214.33%227.62%241.81%246.78%259.59%261.82%

$34,248.99

$58,980.50

1,342

110.38%117.54%120.04%134.53%142.34%153.41%182.33%185.47%190.84%

$33,934.64

$74,548.99

1,758

125.90%148.24%150.52%175.84%186.29%

220.90%

$33,982.69

$92,254.79

1,899

142.67%177.44%185.96%211.11%221.33%

252.49%263.49%

243.88%

$31,377.70

$74,849.81

1,649

178.39%200.44%216.52%

268.12%244.11%228.59%

$29,726.34

$55,403.77

1,864

212.22%245.54%258.37%273.93%284.30%

214.51%