Post on 27-Dec-2015
Expansion of the Earth’sEconomic Sphere
Harrison H. SchmittSymposium on:
The Future of Space Exploration
Boston University
April 12, 2007
NASA PHOTO
•Cold War Political Goals of Eisenhower and Kennedy to Advertise Free Institutions Were Met•Soviet Union Leadership Impressed
–Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative Later Became Creditable
•America Succeeded - Soviets Did Not•Pride and Confidence of Humankind Enhanced•Peoples of Earth Encouraged About Their Future•“Space-faring” became an International Imperative
APOLLO’S COLD WAR LEGACYAPOLLO’S COLD WAR LEGACY
APOLLO’S SOCIETAL LEGACYAPOLLO’S SOCIETAL LEGACY• New Evolutionary Status
– Human Species Can Live on Moon and Mars• Rapid Improvement in Human Condition on Earth
– Acceleration of Technological Expansion– Hazard Definition and Risk Determination
• Future Terrestrial Energy and Environmental Improvement– Conversion Efficiencies Enhanced– Lunar Helium-3 Fusion and Solar Power Options Identified
• Space Settlement Resources Identified on the Moon– Hydrogen, Oxygen, Water, and Food
APOLLO’S SCIENTIFIC APOLLO’S SCIENTIFIC LEGACYLEGACY
• First Order Understanding of Origin and Evolution of the Moon
• Basis for Interpretation of Post-Apollo Information About the Moon– Foundation for Comparative Planetology
• Record of History of Inner Solar System– Initial Guide to Early History of Earth and Mars– Conditions for the Initiation of Life
• Delineation of Lunar Resource Potential• Delineation of Future Lunar Scientific Potential
REMARKABLE!
•Sufficient Base of Technology
–WWII / Cold War / Eisenhower Decisions
•Reservoir of Young Engineers and Skilled Workers
–1957 “Sputnik” Generation
•Pervasive Environment of National Unease
–Campaign of 1960
•Catalytic Event That Brings Focus to Effort
–Gagarin’s Flight
•Articulate, Trusted and Persuasive President
–John F. Kennedy
•Tough, Competent and Disciplined Management
–Post-Apollo 204 Fire
APOLLO’S KEYS TO SUCCESSAPOLLO’S KEYS TO SUCCESS
Deep Space Operations Still Require These Keys!NASA PHOTO
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
What Was the Largest Mistake After Apollo?
•The Development Cost of Apollo Created Was Not Amortized•Continued Use of the Saturn-Apollo Capabilities Would Have Provided:
•Periodic Access to the Moon•Capability for Asteroid or Comet Diversion•Skylab-style Station for Characterization of Human Adaptation to Micro-gravity•Other Micro-gravity applications?
•Enhancement of the Saturn-Apollo Capabilities Would Have Provided:
•Low Cost Access to Lunar Resources•Basis for Large Scale Robotic and Human Exploration of Mars
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Why Return to the Moon?• Satisfy basic human instincts for exploration
– Freedom, betterment, curiosity– New homelands, trade, and knowledge
• Continue at least 40,000 years of exploration’s benefits to modern humans– New homes, livelihoods, know-how, resources– Supported by both “government” and private initiatives
• Perpetuate exploration and settlement of space– Comparable to past migrations into our global habitat– Opportunity for the expansion of free institutions
Challenges for Earthlings:Natural Disaster Prediction
Fresh and Clean Water Supply
Climate Change Mitigation
Farm Land Preservation
Waste Disposal
Energy Supply
THE PROBLEMTHE PROBLEMFOR ALL OF USFOR ALL OF US
• ≈10-12 Billion Earthlings by 2050
• >X10 Increase in Energy Demand for the World to Reach Today’s U.S. Level
– ~X2 to Stay Even With 2006 Demand
– ~X8 or More to Meet Aspirations and Slow Population Growth
– X? To Technologically Mitigate Effects of Climate Change
FOSSIL FUELS?
FISSION?
SOLAR?
HYDROGEN?
PORTFOLIO?FUSION?
A Role For Space?
•YES!
NASA PHOTO
Lunar Helium-3 Fusion Power
QuickTime™ and a
Photo CD Decompressor
are needed to use this picture
Steady State D-3He Fusion
5 cm
1 milli-watt or 108 protons / sec
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Undisturbed Grade For Apollo 11 Helium-3 >20 ppb
1000 MWe Fusion Power Plant (D-3He) Requires ~100kg Helium-3/year
100 Kg Helium-3 Requires Mining 2km2 to Depth of 3m and Processing the <100 µm Fraction (~50 Wt.%)
100 Kg Helium-3 Has Steam Coal Equivalent Value of $140 Million (Coal @$2.50/million Btu)
LUNAR REGOLITHLUNAR REGOLITH
NASA PHOTO
QuickTime™ and a
Photo CD Decompressor
are needed to use this picture
•Outer Space Treaty of 1967–Only Truly Operative Space Treaty Relative to Resources–Implementation of Moon Agreement would be Self-defeating
•1967 Treaty Permissive Relative to Access to Space Resources
–Private, Government, Multilateral or International Initiative Equally Permissible–Private Entity Must Be Sponsored (Licensed) by Party to Treaty
•Multilateral Private Property Regime Desirable
SPACE LAWSPACE LAW
Technical And Financial Envelope For Technical And Financial Envelope For Private Lunar InitiativePrivate Lunar Initiative
• Demonstration of Commercial Viability of Helium-3 Fusion (“Fly-off” Between 4-5 Approaches)– ~US$5 Billion Investment for Demonstration Plant
• Re-creation of a Saturn V Class of Heavy Lift Boosters with payload costs <US$3000/kg to the Moon– ~US$5 Billion Investment [Ares 1-5 Development]
• Lunar Settlement’s Capability to Produce 100kg/yr Helium-3 (Miner-Processors, Infrastructure, and “The Company Town”.)– ~US$2.5 Billion Investment (Lunar Outpost Devel.)
• Financially Viable at >US$2.50/million Btu for Steam Coal ($140 Million/100kg Helium-3) [$2.5-5 Billion Reserve - 17-33%]
NASA PHOTOUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison Photo
MANAGEMENT CONTROL DIAGRAM:MANAGEMENT CONTROL DIAGRAM:LARGE HUMAN ENTERPRISESLARGE HUMAN ENTERPRISES
PRIVATE
NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL
o TRANS-ALASKA PIPELINE o SATCOM COMPANIES o NACA AERONAUTICS
o EAST INDIA CO.o HUDSON BAY CO.
o TRANSCONTINENTAL RAILROADS
MIRCORP
o ORIGINAL COMSAT CORP.
o UNITED SPACE ALLIANCE(SPACE SHUTTLE)
“SANTA MARIA” INC.INTERSTATEHIGHWAYSNUCLEAR NAVYNON-U.S ACTIVITES
EUROTUNNEL
INTERNATIONALSPACE STATION
X X X
INTERLUNE* INMARSAT* INTELSAT*
?
?X
o INTERLUNE-INTERMARS, INC. o SPACE DEVELOPMENT CORP. o LUNA CORP., ETC.
LAW OF THESEA REGIME
MOON AGM’T
BLUE = SPACE ENTERPRISE
GREEN = COMPARABLE MODERN FINANCIAL CHALLENGE
ITALICS = PROPOSED OR NOT YET STABLE SPACE ENTERPRISES
* = PROPORTIONATE USE VOTE
PRIVATE+ GOV’T R&D
APOLLO SKYLAB
ANTARCTIC REGIME
ITER
If A Lunar Helium-3 InitiativeBegan In 2007 With Assured Funding,
The First Human Mission To MarsCould Be Launched By 2020,
Largely Using Technology Paid For ByThe Helium-3 Initiative.
(Including a Clean, Fusion “Orion”)
In The Meantime, Earth Would Have Another Alternative Source
Of Environmentally Acceptable Electrical PowerQuickTime™ and a
Photo CD Decompressor
are needed to use this picture
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
“The Psychological, Technological and Survival Bonds Holding
Humans to the Earth Have Been Broken. This New Evolutionary
Potential in the Universe Now Permits Us to Live on the Moon
and Mars. Generations Alive Today Can Determine If
Humankind Will Take Advantage of
This New Status. -- Will We Begin
the Settlement of the Solar System
and Provide for a New Birth
of Freedom Beyond
the Earth?”
APOLLO BENT OUR EVOLUTIONARY PATH INTO THE FUTURE.
NASA PHOTO
NASA PHOTO
Let Us Return the Moon and find out!!!!
Amazon link:
ShamelessPlug
Back-up Slides
++++Helium-4Helium-4NeutronNeutronTritiumTritium
17.6 MeV17.6 MeV
DeuteriumDeuterium
Fusion Fuel CyclesFIRST GENERATION FUELS
SECOND GENERATION FUELS
THIRD GENERATION FUEL
© HARRISON H. SCHMITTUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
++DeuteriumDeuterium DeuteriumDeuterium
NeutronNeutron Helium-3Helium-3++++HydrogenHydrogen TritiumTritium
4.04.0
3.33.350%50%
50%50%+
++++Helium-4Helium-4DeuteriumDeuterium HydrogenHydrogenHelium-3Helium-3
18.418.4+
++ ++++Helium-4Helium-4HydrogenHydrogen HydrogenHydrogenHelium-3Helium-3Helium-3Helium-3
12.912.9++
PROTONS!!
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Fission DT DD D3He 3He-3He
*burn half of T bred*burn half of T bred
Rel. n/MeV
Released in
FuelFuel
Rel. n/kWh Released in
The Number of Neutrons Generated by Fusion Fuels Varies Depending on the Fuel Cycle
FusionFusion
11
5
11
0.04–0.2 0
7.5*
5
0.04–0.2 0
11
7.5*
DT DD D3He 3He/3He
Fusion GenerationFission 1st 2nd 3rd
Hardest Easiest
Major Problem Minor Problem
Major Societal and Technical Concerns ofNuclear Energy Options
none
none
none
Proliferation
Nuclear Waste
Radiological Hazard
Physics/Eng. Req't.
© HARRISON H. SCHMITTUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
SPACE BIOMEDICAL ISSUESIN MICRO-GRAVITY
• MAJOR KNOWN PROBLEMS– MUSCLE ATROPHY
• HEART• SUPPORT
– BONE AND OTOLITH DE-MINERALIZATION
– RATE OF RE-ADAPTATION TO GRAVITY ENVIRONMENT
– IMMUNE SYSTEM COMPROMISE (?)
– RADIATION PROTECTION
– EDL PERFORMANCE
• COUNTER-MEASURE OPTIONS– HEAVY, ANAROBIC EXERCISE– CENTRIFUGAL FORCE– DRUG THERAPY– EXERCISE– CENTRIFUGAL FORCE– DRUG THERAPY– EXERCISE IN GRAVITY
ALL OF THE ABOVE
IN-TRANSIT AND IN ORBIT“WATER” SURROUNDED STORM CELLAR
ON-SURFACE“REGOLITH” COVER FOR ZENITH