Post on 01-Jan-2016
European Climate Change Programme
Renewable Energy, Progress and way forwardby
Oliver Schäfer, European Renewable Energy Council - EREC
Brussels, Monday, 24th October 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999
Growth and costs of major climate related natural disasters
billion €
source: Münchner Rück
Renewables Are the Key Solution to Climate Change
Why energy efficiency in combination with renewables development has to be the number 1
priority
- Climate change- Oil price/dependency- Air pollution- Nuclear risk- Electricity/gas prices- Competitiveness of EU businesses- Job creation potential
100 Millions of citizens from China, India, Brazil, Mexico,…
are
imitating those in the US, EU, Japan on consumption patterns
we have little time, because
Source: Malte Meinshausen, Swiss Technical University
Implications of delays in reductions of CO2
…and Harry Potter can not help
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Fusion
Generation IV
Carbon Capture and Storage
Energy Efficiency
On Shore Wind
Off Shore Wind
PV
Biomass
Wave/Tidal
Not Viable
Technical Viable
Economically Viable
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
The Reality Today Market Development in Wind and
PV
Cumulative Wind Energy Installed Capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GW
EUROPE 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.5 9.7 12.9 17.3 23.2 28.6 34.2
WORLD 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.8 6.1 7.6 10.2 13.6 17.4 23.9 31.1 39.3 47.3
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Source: EWEA EWEAGrowth rates 1994-1999 : 31.2%
1999-2004 : 28.3%
The Top-10 Markets in the World
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
MW2002 2003 2004
Source: Source: EWEA EWEA
The Top 10 Suppliers in the World
REPOWER (Germany)
3%
NORDEX (Germany)
2%
GE WIND (USA)11%
SUZLON (India)4%
VESTAS (Denmark)
32%
SIEMENS (Denmark)
6%
GAMESA (Spain)
17%
ECOTECNIA (Spain)
3%
ENERCON (Germany)
15%
Others4%
MITSUBISHI (Japan)
3%
Source: Source: BTM Consult BTM Consult
Cumulative Photovoltaic Installed Capacity (MWp)Cumulative Photovoltaic Installed Capacity (MWp)
Source: Source: Eurec Agency, EPIA, Observ‘ER Eurec Agency, EPIA, Observ‘ER
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000MWp
World 314 371 432 502 580 669 795 948 1150 1428 1829 2387 3151 4345
EU-25 90 128 188 284 392 594 1004
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Growth rates 1994-1999 : 18.0%1999-2004 : 30.5%
The Top PV Markets in the World
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Japa
nG
erm
any
US
A
Indi
aP
.R.C
hina
Aus
tral
iaN
eth
erla
nds
Spa
in
Italy
Luxe
mbu
rg
MWp 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Source: EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS
Top PV producing countries in the world
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jap
an
US
A
Ger
man
y
Sp
ain
Aus
tral
ia
Indi
a
Fra
nce
P.R
.Chi
na
MWp 2001 2002 2003
Source: Source: EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS
The Top PV Manufactures in the World
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Sha
rp
Kyo
cera
BP
Sol
ar
Mits
ibis
hi
Q-c
ells
She
ll S
ola
r
San
yo
Isof
oton
RW
E S
olar
Deu
tsch
e C
ell
MWp 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Source: EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS EPIA, Observ‘ER, IEA-PVPS
Policy Works!
RES target for RES target for Europe Europe
20 % by 2020
The European Parliament key recommendations
- a 20% binding target for renewable energies in total energy consumption by 2020 (equivalent to 33% electricity in 2020, up from a level of 12.9% in 20024);
- tax cuts to encourage renewables;
- fair market conditions for electricity produced from renewable energies;
- end to distortions in the energy market (ownership unbundling, market concentration, environmental harmful subsidies to fossil fuels and nuclear energy);
- a clear increase of R&D budget for renewables in the upcoming FP7 to compensate the historical bias in EU energy research programmes;
20 % by 2020
• A contribution of RES to total inland consumption of 20 % by 2020 is possible
• The contribution of RES to electricity production will be more than 33 % in 2020
• The contribution of RES to heat production will be 25 % in 2020.
AGR needed to meet the White Paper Targets
Benefits of 20 % targetBenefits of 20 % target
Total RES investmentTotal RES investment of 443 billion € in the period of 443 billion € in the period 2001-20202001-2020
126,7 – 323,9 billion € of 126,7 – 323,9 billion € of cumulated avoided cumulated avoided externalexternal costscosts between 2001 and 2020 between 2001 and 2020
115,8 billion € of 115,8 billion € of cumulative avoided fuel cost cumulative avoided fuel cost reductionreduction in EU 15 (2001-2020) in EU 15 (2001-2020)
Creation ofCreation of more than 2 million full time more than 2 million full time jobsjobs until until 20202020
728 million tons/year of CO728 million tons/year of CO22 emission reduction emission reduction in 2020, representing a decrease of 17,3 % in 2020, representing a decrease of 17,3 % compared to 1990compared to 1990
Annual COAnnual CO22 Emission Reductions Emission Reductions due to RES Penetration due to RES Penetration
(2001 – 2020)(2001 – 2020)
2010
Mt/year2020
Mt/year
Wind 99 236
PV 2.2 24
Biomass 176 326
Hydro 23 35
Geothermal 5.8 15
Solar thermal 14 92
TOTAL RES 320 728
% of total EU15 CO2 emissions in 2000 9.6% 21.9%
Conclusion
• RE has the technological potential to replace fossil fuels as mainstream energy source.
• RE is integral part of the energy supply in many countries today.
• RE has tangible economic, ecological and social benefit.
• BUT: RE market development depends on a coherent, predictable, supportive political & legal framework.
Think the `Unthinkable`
The EREC `Advanced Policies Scenario` (APS)
Why Scenarios?
• images of alternative futures• neither predictions nor forecasts• image of how the future could unfold• useful tools for investigating alternative future
developments and their implications
Scenarios can create a vision for the future and guide decision makers
`Scenarios help us understand the limitations of our ‘mental maps’ of the world – to think the
unthinkable, anticipate the unknowable and
utilise both to make better strategic decisions.`
The IEA AS is a welcomed move, but it has too many limitations – it does
not think the `unthinkable`:
A Substantial Policy Shift
Assumptions Based On:
• Ambitious growth rates• Additional support measures• Regions already active in the promotion of
renewables will increase their efforts• Higher prices for conventional energy supply• Growing support for electrification of the poor regions
by renewables.• Implementation of the Kyoto protocol and additional
measures• International cooperation• Total energy consumption are based on a scenario
from the IIASA
The Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources to the World Energy Supply in 2040 – Projections
in Mtoe – APS
Electricity Scenario
Exemplary detailed scenario for electricity – APS
Comparison between IEA-AP and EREC Scenarios (2030)
IEA-AS EREC-DCP EREC-AP
RES Total (Mtoe) 2345 3416 4289
RES- E (TWh) 6836 11770 17109
WIND (TWh) ~1000 4590 6307
PV (TWh) ~100 1280 2570
• diesel: 21 -23%• hydrogen from gas reforming: 30%• Hydrogen from electrolyses: 12 -15%• Hybrid: 30 - 35%
Efficiency of different engine solutions
What is not the Solution - Hydrogen
Overall efficiency of nuclear hydrogen 12%– 33% of efficiency to produce electricity from NP– 5 kWh to produce 1m3 H2 (electroloyses)– 1m3 H2 produces 1.8 kWh el
To fuel 40% of world transport demand in 2060
would require at least 4000 NPP of 1000 MW !
nuclear hydrogen for cars/lorries
A Streamlined Internal Electricity Market
Competition in the internal electricity market ?
“Much work still has to be done to deal with the dominant and even monopolistic positions of the incumbent operators and investments will be needed to guarantee the interoperability of grids and networks, interconnection and an adequate level of capabilities and infrastructure”
Loyola de Palacio, 13 October 2004
“The current level of competition is not encouraging. (…) In most national markets, customer switching rates are modest, substantial barriers remain for new entrants, market structures are highly concentrated and, last but not least a single European energy market has not been achieved.”
Mario Monti, 21 September 2004
Distortions in the internal electricity market
• 4 Commission benchmarking reports: Endless distortions
• National and regional monopolies / oligopolies
• No real consumer choice
• Lack of interconnectors
• Little separation of production and transmission
• Power companies acting on both demand and supply side in the wholesale market
• 75% of electricity subsidies goes to conventional power
• Euratom shields nuclear (33% of total EU production) from internal market rules (since 1958!)
• Complete absence of any meaningful internalisation of environmental costs
Liberalised Markets?Liberalised Markets?
• 95% of the EU power market is still affected by huge market distortions
• Electricity prices do not reflect full costs as long as polluter pays principle is missing
• Subsidies -direct and indirect- to conventional power production is still massive
• National and regional monopolies / oligopolies
Competition not effective
Ownership-Market Concentration
For more informationFor more information
www.erec-renewables.orgwww.erec-renewables.org
EREC - European Renewable Energy CouncilEREC - European Renewable Energy Council
Renewable Energy HouseRenewable Energy House
26, rue du Trône - B-1000 Brussels26, rue du Trône - B-1000 Brussels
T: +32 2 546 1933 - F: +32 2 546 1934T: +32 2 546 1933 - F: +32 2 546 1934
erec@erec-renewables.orgerec@erec-renewables.org