Post on 18-Jul-2020
1
EU Grains Supply and Demand
Outlook
Director J. SchapsEuropean CommissionDirectorate C DG AGRI
IGC Grains Conference 2016London, UK
14th June 2016
CONTENTS
1. Global Context
2. EU Grains Supply and Demand
3. Outlook
2
€ vs $ exchange rate:a competitive Euro since 2 years
Crude oil price ($/barrel):cheap oil since 2 years
3
Baltic Dry Index:cheap transport since 2 years
Global Cereals Market: ample availabilities Supply > Demand in recent years
(incl. in EU)
4
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
$ /
to
nn
e
Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 191
Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 208
Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 190
Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 183
Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 192
Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 159
Global cereal prices: down since 2 yearsEU cereals competitive
CONTENTS
1. Global Context
2. EU Grains Supply and Demand
3. Outlook
5
EU Cereals Supply: good EU productionProduction ≈ 310 Mio t (incl. wheat 150 Mio t)
Imports ≈ 18 Mio t (incl. maize 12 Mio t)
Wheat: soft + durum wheatCoarse grains: maize + barley + all other grains
EU: a key player on the global market150 Mio t EU wheat ≈ 20% of global production
6
EU Cereals Production ≈ 310 Mio tMember States Overview
EU Cereals Demand: good EU exportsDomestic uses ≈ 280 Mio t (incl. feed 170 Mio t)
Exports ≈ 45 Mio t (incl. wheat 30 Mio t)
Wheat: soft + durum wheatCoarse grains: maize + barley + all other grains
7
Wheat imports
Coarse grain imports
Wheat exports
Coarse grain exports
Trade balance
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
mio t
Marketing Year (July‐June)
EU 28 ‐ Cereals exports and imports including flour and other processed products in grain equivalent
Source: EUROSTAT
36.4
16.2
EXPORTS
IMPORTS
EU Cereals Market: Production > ConsumptionTrade Surplus ≈ 30 Mio t in recent years
EU Oilseeds Supply: high importsProduction ≈ 33 Mio t (incl. rapeseed 22 Mio t)
Imports ≈ 16 Mio t (incl. soybean 13 Mio t*)
* Also annual imports of ≈ 19 Mio t of soya meal
8
EU Oilseeds Demand: no surplusDomestic uses ≈ 48 Mio t
Exports ≈ 1 Mio t
EU Grains Trade – OverviewKey Exports (eg wheat) and Imports (eg soya)
export
import0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Million tons
Barley including malt
export
import
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Million tons
Common wheat (incl. flour and groats)
export
import
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Million tons
Durum wheat (incl. flour)
export
import
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Million tons
Maize (Incl. processed products)
export
import
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Million tons
Rape or Colza seeds
export
import0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Million tons
Rape, colza or mustard oil
export
import
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Million tons
Soybeans
export
import
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Million tons
Soymeal
export
import
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Million tons
Palm oil
Source: EUROSTAT – July-March data
9
CONTENTS
1. Global Context
2. EU Grains Supply and Demand
3. Outlook
18
EU Cereals Supply: positive outlookWheat to stay No 1 in EU
Barley17%
Other cereals6%
Rice1%
Rye3%
Durum wheat3%
Maize13%
Oats4%
Rapeseed9%
Sugar beet2%
Sunflower seed6%
Common wheat34%
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5An
nu
al c
han
ge
in y
ield
bet
wee
n 2
01
1-2
01
5
and
20
25
Annual change in area harvested between 2011-2015 and 2025
Note: the size of the bubble refers to the share in area harvest on average in the years 2011-15
Annual changes in area and yields by crops between 2011-2015 and 2025 in the EU (%)
10
19
EU Cereals Demand: positive outlookfor Food, Feed and Exports
0
50
100
150
20
10
-15
20
25
20
10
-15
20
25
20
10
-15
20
25
20
10
-15
20
25
Total Wheat Maize Barley Other cereals
Mill
ion
t
Exports Bioenergy Feed Food and industrial
Concluding Remarks
• EU is a key player on global grains market
• Thanks to high supply, EU cereals competitive
• Environmental requirements may impact crop production in the EU
• Outlook is positive for EU Supply and Demand
11
DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS
Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1342/2003), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, The Baltic Exchange, CME, MATIF, France Agrimer
Last update: 02.06.2016
Prices
Production & Stocks
Trade
Cropsstatus
Weatherconditions
EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures ‐ 60 days CME US maize & soybeans futures ‐ 60 days Monthly avg: currency ‐ oil ‐ freight
TRQs
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
US Gulf (SRW) 176 196 1% ‐2% ‐11% ‐9%
US Gulf (HRW) 176 197 2% ‐1% ‐19% ‐18%
EU Rouen (grade 1) 160 179 5% 2% ‐7% ‐6%
CA St Lawrence (CWAD) 260 290 5% 2% ‐20% ‐19%
EU Port‐la‐Nouvelle n.q. n.q. ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Black sea (feed) 149 166 0% ‐2% ‐11% ‐10%
EU Rouen (feed) 151 169 5% 2% ‐12% ‐11%
US Gulf (3YC) 164 183 8% 5% 6% 7%
EU Bordeaux 177 197 7% 4% 12% 13%
soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 378 422 9% 6% 10% 12%
maize
01 Jun 2016 m/m variation y/y variationExport prices FOB
durum
wheat
wheat
barley
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06
€/t
Euronext milling wheat futures
Daily volume
JUL'17: 179DEC'16: 175JUL'16: 165
Daily traded
volume (1000 contracts of 50 tons)
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06
$/t
CME Maize futures
Daily volumeJUL'17: 169DEC'16: 164JUL'16: 163
Daily traded
volume (1000 contracts of 127 tons)
176
160
169
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16
€/t Wheat ‐ monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea
164
177
172
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Jun‐15 Sep‐15 Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16
€/t Maize ‐monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea
2015
1003722
320
0
1000
2000
3000
cereals maize wheat soybeans
World production (million tons)
2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)
313
145
66 62
0
100
200
300
400
cereals wheat maize barley
EU production (million tons)
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)
474
205 223
29
0
200
400
600
cereals maize wheat soybeans
World stocks (million tons)
2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)
49
18 158
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
cereals wheat maize barley
EU stocks (million tons)
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)
50
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16
Brent Crude Oil $/barrel
160
170
180
190
200
210
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06
$/t
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
JUL'16: 174DEC'16: 185JUL'17: 198
Daily volume
Daily traded
volume (1000 contracts of 136 tons)
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
02/04 12/04 22/04 02/05 12/05 22/05 01/06
$/t
Chicago soybeans futures
Daily volume
JUL'16: 404AUG'16: 403
SEP'16: 396
Daily traded
volume (1000 contracts of 136tons)
612
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16
Freight (Baltic dry index)
Weekly volume
(current MY)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 10 19 28 37 46
To
tal
for
MY
-m
illio
n
ton
s
Wee
kly
vo
lum
e
-th
ous
and
to
ns
Week
2015/16 - 29.9 mio t.
Trim avg 5MY
2014/2015
Wheat and flour export commitments
Weekly volume
(current MY)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 10 19 28 37 46
To
tal
for
MY
-m
illio
n
ton
s
We
ekly
vo
lum
e
-th
ous
and
to
ns
Week
2014/2015
2015/16 - 9.1 mio t.
Trim avg 5MY
Barley export commitments
Weekly volume
(current MY)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 10 19 28 37 46
To
tal
for
MY
-m
illio
n
ton
s
Wee
kly
vo
lum
e -
tho
usa
nd
to
ns
Week
2015/16 - 12.5 mio
Trim avg 5MY
2014/2015
Maize import commitments
1.12
1.061.071.081.091.101.111.121.131.14
Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16
Exchange rate € vs $ $
950
14
400236
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Common
wheat
Barley MaizeTh
ousa
nd
ton
s
2016 ‐ Cereals TRQs ‐Ukraine
Qty available
Qty allocated
101 13939572
2 278
123139 307
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Canada USA other
countries
all
origins
all
origins
all
origins
Common wheat Maize Barley
Th
ousan
d
ton
s
2016 ‐ Cereals TRQs ‐WTO
Qty available
Qty allocated
Available at : http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm
Thank you for your attention!
EU balance sheets & market presentations available:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balance-sheets/index_en.htm
Cereals dashboard available:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/index_en.htm
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