Estimating, reporting and accounting

Natural Disturbances

Zoltan Somogyi

National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre

Forest Research InstituteBudapest, Hungary

JRC Workshop, Arona, 6 May 2014

Natural disturbances (2/CMP.7, Annex para 1a)

„non-anthropogenic events or non- anthropogenic circumstances …

that cause significant emissions in forests and are beyond the control of, and not

materially influenced by, a Party” …

2/CMP.7 Annex, paras 33-36:

• A Party may exclude from the accounting emissions from natural disturbances

• provided that a number of conditions are met

Issues to answer

• Why exclude?• Under what conditions?• How to exclude?• How to develop the background level and

margin?

(+ examples)

Why exclude?

NIR EU, 2013: „the inter-annual variability in removals is significantly affected by:- forest fires (e.g. Portugal in 1990, 2003 and 2005; Italy in 2007) … Spain reports areas burnt ranging between 20 – 250 kha annually;- windstorms (e.g. France in 1999 and 2010, and Denmark in 2000, Sweden in 2005)”

No one knows future

The Dendroctonus ponderosae story

19990

2

4

6

8

10

Infe

cted

are

a in

BC

(Can

ada,

mill

ion

ha)

20002001

2002

2003

2005

2004

2006

2007Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008, 2009

1930

The Dendroctonus ponderosae story

Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008, 2009

The Dendroctonus ponderosae story

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

carb

on e

mis

sion

(Mt C

/ yr

)

Without beetle With beetle With beetle + salvage cutting

Kurz et al. 2008, Nature

The Dendroctonus ponderosae storyca

rbon

bal

ance

(MtC

/ y

r)

~ total annual emissionsof Hungary

Emissions may be excluded(provided that certain conditions are met):

• either annually or at the end of the second commitment period

• separately for AR and FM• in any single year • when total emissions from all events, including

legacy emissions, exceed a background level plus a margin

To exclude emissions,report in NIR of 2015:

• intention to apply the provision to FM, AR or both

• country-specific information on – a FM background level (BL) of emissions that have been

included in FMRL– an AR BL– how BL has been estimated (separately for FM and AR) – how to avoid the expectation of net credits or net debits

during the CP, including through the use of a margin, where a margin is needed (separately for FM and AR)

To exclude emissions, demonstrate:

• all affected lands are identified, including their georeferenced location

• by year and types of disturbances• how annual emissions and the subsequent

removals are estimated• emissions associated with salvage logging

were not excluded from accounting

• no land-use change has occurred on lands for which the provisions are applied

• methods and criteria for identifying any future land-use changes during the CP

• occurrences were beyond the control of, and not materially influenced by, the Party in the CP

• practicable efforts to prevent, manage or control the NDs that led to the application of the provisions

• efforts taken to rehabilitate land where practicable

To exclude emissions, demonstrate:

Exclusion of removals on affected land

• assess and report them,• regardless of whether forest is re-established by

rehabilitation or from the natural re-growth• ensure that the removals are not captured by

another assessment system• check/correct consistency with FMRL• exclude from accounting removals that are

additional to those included in the FMRL

Information on efforts taken to rehabilitate the land

• area rehabilitated• area not rehabilitated, and why (e.g. due to lava)

• timeframe of rehabilitation

• efforts taken or planned• expected results (e.g., species, growth, C balance)

How to identify & report on land

• apply Reporting Method 1 or 2

• identify the type of ND

• identify the year in which the ND occurred

• check if „normal” forest inventory density provides sufficiently accurate information

If „normal” forest inventory density is not enough:

„to make the estimated uncertainty comparable with the uncertainty in the overall estimation of Articles 3.3 and 3.4 forest-related emissions”:

• intensify sampling

• identify the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions, and assess the need for compl-ementary ancillary and/or ground truth data

How to estimate emissions & removals

• use IPCC 2006

• use a Tier/method that is consistent with, and/or complementary to, the method and Tier level applied to each of the pools

• use Tier 2/3 especially if FM or AR (=L-FL) are a key category

How to estimate emissions & removals

• all pools (including DOM, but excluding HWP) must be estimated (except if they can be demonstrated not to be a source)

• separately estimate emissions due to salvage logging in the year when they occur

• these should include emissions from wood removed from the area, dead wood discarded and damage to soil, and non-CO2 emissions

How to estimate emissions & removals

• estimate and report areas and emissions in the year when ND occurs

• continue monitoring and reporting emissions and removals in subsequent yearsstratification, activity data, emissions/removal factors and other parameters must reflect the spatial and temporal dynamics

• estimate legacy emissions in the year when they occur

How to estimate emissions & removals• show that emissions accounted for under the

ND provision are unambiguously attributable to NDs and do not contain or double count emissions from regular management activities, including salvage logging

• if land use change occurs, report all emissions under D

• consistency with FMRL and BL is key

Jocke Berglund, 2005

Rules of exclusion:of all annual ND emissions …

BL Es („background group”) are excluded due to FMRL Es above the BL may be excluded

in years with Es above BL + Margin („outliers”)

To estimate BLs and Ms (separately for FM and AR):

STEP 1

• define in 2015 • the types of NDs • that the Party wishes to exclude from

accounting (can include sub-divisions and rare events)

STEP 2a Establish a consistent and initially complete time series for the calibration period (= period with historical data)

for each disturbance type, and their sum

kt

STEP 2a• fill in gaps in time series (do not use

interpolation)

• if no direct time series is available, proxies and other methods may be used (e.g., AR time series from FM time series)

• exclude emissions from salvage logging from the time series

Because the area can change for both FM …

… and AR …

STEP 2b … report:

• total annual emissions

• total annual area by category

• area specific annual emissions

STEP 2b

FM/AR, t

STEP 3Develop the BL

• separately for FM and AR• select and apply default or alternative method

• if necessary:– use area-specific values to develop area-specific

background level = bl–multiply bl by the actual area under FM/AR

during the time period accounted for (year or the average area during the commitment period)

STEP 3Projected mean area for the CP: FM

STEP 3Projected mean area for the CP: AR

STEP 3-aiterative process of the default method

(using area-specific data)

1. calculate mean for all years with data in the background group

2. calculate standard deviation (STD)3. exclude emissions > mean + 2*STD4. repeat 1-3 until there are no more outliers5. bl = lastly calculated mean6. BL = bl * projected area

STEP 4Margin: default method

Margin = 2*lastly calculated STD(practically ensures zero credit/debit)

frequency

emissions

STEP 3-bBL: alternative method

frequency

STEP 3-bfor BL to be appropriate …

BL

emissions

frequency

STEP 3-b.. the sum of all emissions below BL …

BL

emissions

frequency

STEP 3-b… must equal to the sum of all emissions

between BL and BL+Margin

BL Margin

outlier emissions

emissions

BLMargin

frequency

emissions

STEP 3-bBL can be smaller than the „average”, the

minimum historical (projected) emission, or 0 …

outlier emissions

BLMargin

frequency

emissions

STEP 4Margin, alternative method:

must be set accordingly, 0 or 0 (respectively)

outlier emissions

For all methods:Background group: emissions <= BL + margin

STEP 5Ensure there is no expectation of

credits/debits by checking:

• data sources, assumptions, estimation methodologies

• items (1) – (4) in Box 2.3.6– no disregarded trend– BL is the mean of emissions in the background

group– BL is tested for all years in the calibration period– only emissions > BL are excluded, – and only when they are > BL + Margin

FINAL STEPS

• Ensure consistency with FMRL by applying Technical Correction if necessary (relative to the FMRL reported earlier)

• Report transparently all methodological elements

Photo: Ipolyerdő Zrt.

although emissions from NDshave been low historically

for many countries,the question is not whether

NDs of large emissions will occur or not, rather, when