ESD.71 Application Portfolio: Flexibility in the Product Design Process

ESD.71 Application Portfolio:Flexibility in the Product Design

Process

Alison Olechowski12/09/2010

Why Model Design?

Complex system

Significant early investment

Critical decision making

Uncertainties in:-customer requirement-technology performance-market/competition

Point-based Design

One solution is chosen from initial set of ideas based on estimates of customer requirement and performance level

Design is frozen early to allow parallel sub-team work and optimization

Point-based (Deterministic) Model

Design 1

Design 2

Design 3

Design 4

Design 5

Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4

Period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Phase 1 Review

Close 2 Designs

Phase 2 Review

Close 1 Design

Phase 3 Review

Close 1 Design

Phase 4 Review

Design

Set-based Design

Term coined by Allen Ward

A design-space-spanning set of ideas is considered and analyzed

Slowly converge to final solution

Waste of resources in carrying extra designs ahead

Set-based (Flexible) Model

Design 1

Design 2

Design 3

Design 4

Design 5

Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4 Design 4

Design 1 Design 1

Design 3 Design 3

Design 5 Design 5

Design 1 Design 1 Design 1 Design 1

Design 2 Design 2 Design 2 Design 2

Period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Phase 1 Review

Close 2 Designs

Phase 2 Review

Close 1 Design

Phase 3 Review

Close 1 Design

Phase 4 Review

Design

The Simulation ModelExplore parallel exploration and delay of decisions

Customer requirement and design performance levels treated as random walking variables, with fixed volatility

Development cost per design period increases over project life

Effective annual discount rate of 10%

The Simulation Model

Sales revenue a parabolic function of difference between final customer requirement and design performance level

No revenue for first 16 months of development

Sales revenue for following 24 months

The Simulation Model

Simulation Results

Monte Carlo simulation with 5000 runs

Simulation Results

Questions?alisono[at]mit.edu

Title slide pictures from: 1) http://www.pharmaceutical-int.com/article/center-of-competence-for-isolator-technology-h2o2-decontamination.html

2) http://www.solardave.com/index.php/pros-and-cons-of-solar-panel-micro-inverters-video/

ESD.71 Application Portfolio: Flexibility in the Product Design Process

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