AnEscapeFrom

Mediocrity

86% Over budg

et

Consequences of Delayed, Over Budget Projects

Don’t Stress

Us Out!

Top 5 in 5To achieve excellence in execution, deliver a consistent product to our

clients which complies with our contractual obligations, and seeks to exceed expectations while achieving

planned financial results"

Build abetterproduct

High Quality

Planning1

Time Spent Planning

Reality16 months

Forecast12

months

Planning1 month

Vision

Schedule

Reschedule

Float

Optimism bias

Black Swan

Communication

2

Honesty & Transparency

Strategic Misrepresentation

Anchoring

effect

Getting Answers

(Not just the ones you want!)

Discipline3

“A 'No‘ uttered from the deepest

conviction is better than a 'Yes' merely

uttered to please, or worse, to

avoid trouble.”

1/2 wayFEED of Refinery

Simulation:(4 more cases)

PFD’s

H&MB

Detailed Lv Calcs

P&ID’s

Add distribution

ENDFEED of Refinery

Simulation:(4 more cases)

PFD’s

H&MB

Detailed Lv Calcs

P&ID’s

Add distribution

Technology study

Feedstock change

Project PlanFEED of Refinery

Simulation

PFD’s

H&MB

FEED Lv Calcs

P&ID’s

Scope Creep

Bikeshedding

Photo References

Brown Cow http://ponyridingby.blogspot.ca/2011_11_01_archive.htmlTigers in water http://www.ck12.org/user%3AeWVvbWFubWlrZUBzYXlkZWwubmV0/book/Saydel-Biology-Flexbook/r13/section/22.0/Mammals-and-Animal-Behavior-%253A%253Aof%253A%253A-Saydel-Biology-Flexbook/ Gandhi http://www.wallpaperswala.com/mahatma-gandhi/Dog with burger http://myfangalicious.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/img_87372.jpgOil refiner http://tropicaldaily.com/nicaragua/mega-oil-refinery-project-brings-both-hope-and-concern-to-nicaragua/Glass half full http://hd.wallpaperswide.com/thumbs/glass_of_water_half_full-t2.jpgButterfly http://www.turtok.com/wpcontent/uploads/2012/10/Glass_wing_or_clear_wing_butterfly_Wallpaper_h6675.jpgLying http://www.ionpsych.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/lying-main_full1.jpgShed http://www.junglecatmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/shed0039.jpgCoughing http://img4-2.realsimple.timeinc.net/images/stock-images/man-coughing_300.jpg

Literary references

Bent Flyvbjerg et al. (2002). Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects, APA Journal, vol.68, No. 3, Pg. 279.Steen Linchtenberg et al. (2005). How to avoid overruns and delays successfully, Proposed ICEC Journal.Nassim Nicholas Taleb. (2007). Black Swan. Random House.Daniel Kahneman. (2011). Thinking Fast & Slow. Farrar, Straus & Giroux.