Post on 22-Jan-2018
Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene
Juan Carlos Rocha @juanrocha
The Anthropocene
The Anthropocene
Social challenge: Understand patterns of causes and consequences of regime shifts
How common they are? What are the main drivers? Where are they likely to occur? Who will be most affected? What can we do to avoid them? What possible interactions or cascading effects?
Science challenge: understand phenomena where experimentation is rarely an option, data availability is poor, and time for action a constraint
The Anthropocene
Regime shifts are abrupt reorganisation of a system’s structure and function.
collapse
collapse
recovery
Prec
ipita
tion
Vegetation Prec
ipita
tion
Vegetation Prec
ipita
tion
Vegetation Prec
ipita
tion
Vegetation
Precipitation Precipitation Precipitation Precipitation
low high low high low high low high
Vegetation
low
high
Vegetation
low
high
Vegetation
low
high
Vegetation
low
high
StabilityLandscape
Equilibria
Regime shifts are abrupt reorganisation of a system’s structure and function.
1. A comparative framework 2. Global drivers & Impacts 3. A management perspective
4. Cascading effects
Outline
A comparative framework
A comparative frameworkBiggs, et al. 2015. bioRxiv:018473.
Regime Shifts DataBase
The shift substantially affect the set of ecosystem services provided by a social-ecological system
Established or proposed feedback mechanisms exist that maintain the different regimes.
The shift persists on time scale that impacts on people and society
Time
Spac
eGlobal
Years
Local
Weeks
National
Decades
Seagrass transitions Submerged to Floating plants
Fisheries collapse Mangroves collapse Common pool resource harvesting River channel change Salt marshes to tidal flats Kelps transitions Bivalves collapse Bush encroachment Soil salinization Freshwater Eutrophication Coral transitions
Indian summer monsoon
Marine foodwebs Hypoxia
Coniferous to deciduous forest Peatland transitions Sprawling vs compact city Tundra to boreal forest Thermokarst lake to terrestrial ecosystem
West Antarctica Ice Sheet Thermohaline circulation Greenland Ice sheet collapse Arctic sea ice loss
Coastal Marine Eutrophication Forest to savannaSub-continental
Months Centuries
Mechanism
Exist
ence
Well established
Contested
Speculative
Speculative
Contested
Well established
West Antarctica Ice Sheet Sprawling vs compact city
Common pool resource harvesting Marine foodwebs Indian summer monsoon Thermohaline circulation
Bush encroachment Fisheries collapse
Forest to savanna Mangroves collapse
Tundra to boreal forest Peatland transitions
Submerged to Floating plants Arctic sea ice loss Greenland Ice sheet collapse Salt marshes to tidal flats Thermokarst lake to terrestrial ecosystem
Bivalves collapse Coral transitions Coniferous to deciduous forest Freshwater Eutrophication Hypoxia Kelps transitions Coastal Marine Eutrophication Seagrass transitions River channel change Soil salinization
Fast comparison of regime shifts = openly available dataset
Mediterranean shrubs (eg Fynbos)
Planetary
Agro−ecosystems
Temperate & boreal forests
Tropical forests
Drylands & deserts
Grasslands
Moist savannas & woodlands
Tundra
Polar
Freshwater lakes & rivers
Marine & coastal
0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts
Ecos
yste
m ty
pe
a
Mining
Intensive livestock production
Timber production
Small−scale subsistence crops
Urban
Conservation
Extensive livestock production
Tourism
Large−scale commercial crops
Land use impacts are off−site
Fisheries
0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts
Land
Use
b
Adoption of new technology
Disease
Infrastructure development
Species introduction or removal
Vegetation conversion and fragmentation
Soil erosion & land degradation
Harvest and resource consumption
Environmental shocks
External inputs
Global climate change
0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts
Driv
ers
c
Other crops (eg cotton)
Hydropower
Wild animal and plant foods
Fuel and fiber crops
Woodfuel
Timber
Food crops
Livestock
Freshwater
Wild animal and plant products
Fisheries
0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts
Prov
ision
ing
serv
ices
a
Pollination
Air quality regulation
Natural hazard regulation
Pest & Disease regulation
Regulation of soil erosion
Water regulation
Water purification
Climate regulation
0 5 10Number of Regime Shifts
Regu
latin
g se
rvice
s
b
Cultural identity
Social conflict
disease)
Health (eg toxins
Security of housing & infrastructure
aesthetic and recreational values
Cultural
Food and nutrition
Livelihoods and economic activity
0 5 10 15 20 25Number of Regime Shifts
Hum
an w
ell−
bein
g
c
Spiritual and religious
Knowledge and educational values
Recreation
Aesthetic values
0 5 10 15 20Number of Regime Shifts
Cultu
ral s
ervic
es
d
Soil formation
Water cycling
Nutrient cycling
Primary production
0 5 10 15Number of Regime Shifts
Ecos
yste
m P
roce
ss
e
Drivers, Risk & ResilienceRocha, et al. PLoS ONE 10:e0134639
Drivers Natural or human induced changes that have been identified as directly or indirectly producing a regime shift
Causal-loop diagrams is a technique to map out the
feedback structure of a system (Sterman 2000)
Methods
•Bipartite network and one-mode projections: 25 Regime shifts + 57 Drivers
•104 random bipartite graphs
to explore significance of couplings: mean degree and co-occurrence statistics on one-mode projections.
•ERGM models using Jaccard similarity index on the RSDB as edge covariates & MDS
Regime shiftsDrivers
A 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
B 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
C
Regime Shift Database
Ecosystem services
Ecosystem processes
Ecosystem type
Impact on human well being
Land use
Spatial scale
Temporal scale
Reversibility
Evidence
...
Methods
•Bipartite network and one-mode projections: 25 Regime shifts + 57 Drivers
•104 random bipartite graphs
to explore significance of couplings: mean degree and co-occurrence statistics on one-mode projections.
•ERGM models using Jaccard similarity index on the RSDB as edge covariates & MDS
Regime shiftsDrivers
A 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
B 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
C
Regime Shift Database
Ecosystem services
Ecosystem processes
Ecosystem type
Impact on human well being
Land use
Spatial scale
Temporal scale
Reversibility
Evidence
...
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Aquifers depletion
Climate change
Coastal erosion
Deforestation
Disease
Droughts
ENSO like events
Erosion
Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Green house gases
Harvesting (animals)
Hunting
Ice melt water
Impoundments
Invasive species
Irrigation
Landscape fragmentation
Logging
Low tides
Nutrient inputs
Ocean acidification
Pollutants
Precipitation
Production intensification
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
River channelization
Roads and railways
Salt water intrusion
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sea water density
Sediments
Sewage
Soil moistureStorms
Temperature
Thermal anomalies in summer
Turbidity
Upwellings
Urban storm water runoff
Urbanization
Water depth
Water infrastructure
Water level fluctuation
Water stratification
Water vapor
Wetland Drainage
Wind stress
Arctic Sea Ice
Bivalves
Coral transitions
Drylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to Savana
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves
Marine Eutrhophication
Marine food webs
Moonson
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt Marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinization
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
WAIS
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Aquifers depletion
Climate change
Coastal erosion
Deforestation
Disease
Droughts
ENSO like events
Erosion
Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Green house gases
Harvesting (animals)
Hunting
Ice melt water
Impoundments
Invasive species
Irrigation
Landscape fragmentation
Logging
Low tides
Nutrient inputs
Ocean acidification
Pollutants
Precipitation
Production intensification
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
River channelization
Roads and railways
Salt water intrusion
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sea water density
Sediments
Sewage
Soil moistureStorms
Temperature
Thermal anomalies in summer
Turbidity
Upwellings
Urban storm water runoff
Urbanization
Water depth
Water infrastructure
Water level fluctuation
Water stratification
Water vapor
Wetland Drainage
Wind stress
Arctic Sea Ice
Bivalves
Coral transitions
Drylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to Savana
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves
Marine Eutrhophication
Marine food webs
Moonson
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt Marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinization
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
WAIS
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Aquifers depletion
Climate change
Coastal erosion
Deforestation
Disease
Droughts
ENSO like events
Erosion
Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Green house gases
Harvesting (animals)
Hunting
Ice melt water
Impoundments
Invasive species
Irrigation
Landscape fragmentation
Logging
Low tides
Nutrient inputs
Ocean acidification
Pollutants
Precipitation
Production intensification
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
River channelization
Roads and railways
Salt water intrusion
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sea water density
Sediments
Sewage
Soil moistureStorms
Temperature
Thermal anomalies in summer
Turbidity
Upwellings
Urban storm water runoff
Urbanization
Water depth
Water infrastructure
Water level fluctuation
Water stratification
Water vapor
Wetland Drainage
Wind stress
Arctic Sea Ice
Bivalves
Coral transitions
Drylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to Savana
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves
Marine Eutrhophication
Marine food webs
Moonson
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt Marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinization
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
WAIS
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Aquifers depletion
Climate change
Coastal erosion
Deforestation
Disease
Droughts
ENSO like events
Erosion
Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Green house gases
Harvesting (animals)
Hunting
Ice melt water
Impoundments
Invasive species
Irrigation
Landscape fragmentation
Logging
Low tides
Nutrient inputs
Ocean acidification
Pollutants
Precipitation
Production intensification
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
River channelization
Roads and railways
Salt water intrusion
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sea water density
Sediments
Sewage
Soil moistureStorms
Temperature
Thermal anomalies in summer
Turbidity
Upwellings
Urban storm water runoff
Urbanization
Water depth
Water infrastructure
Water level fluctuation
Water stratification
Water vapor
Wetland Drainage
Wind stress
Arctic Sea Ice
Bivalves
Coral transitions
Drylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to Savana
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves
Marine Eutrhophication
Marine food webs
Moonson
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt Marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinization
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
WAIS
AgricultureClimate change
DeforestationDisease
DroughtsErosion
Fertilizers use
FishingFloods
Green house gases
Landscape fragmentationNutrient inputs
Rainfall variability
Sea surface temperature
SedimentsSewage
Temperature
Urbanization
> likelihood of drivers co-occurrence if drivers that can be managed at
local - regional scales and if they are indirect & generalist
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Aquifers depletion
Climate change
Coastal erosion
Deforestation
Disease
Droughts
ENSO like events
Erosion
Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Green house gases
Harvesting (animals)
Hunting
Ice melt water
Impoundments
Invasive species
Irrigation
Landscape fragmentation
Logging
Low tides
Nutrient inputs
Ocean acidification
Pollutants
Precipitation
Production intensification
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
River channelization
Roads and railways
Salt water intrusion
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sea water density
Sediments
Sewage
Soil moistureStorms
Temperature
Thermal anomalies in summer
Turbidity
Upwellings
Urban storm water runoff
Urbanization
Water depth
Water infrastructure
Water level fluctuation
Water stratification
Water vapor
Wetland Drainage
Wind stress
Arctic Sea Ice
Bivalves
Coral transitions
Drylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to Savana
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves
Marine Eutrhophication
Marine food webs
Moonson
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt Marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinization
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
WAIS
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Aquifers depletion
Climate change
Coastal erosion
Deforestation
Disease
Droughts
ENSO like events
Erosion
Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Green house gases
Harvesting (animals)
Hunting
Ice melt water
Impoundments
Invasive species
Irrigation
Landscape fragmentation
Logging
Low tides
Nutrient inputs
Ocean acidification
Pollutants
Precipitation
Production intensification
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
River channelization
Roads and railways
Salt water intrusion
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sea water density
Sediments
Sewage
Soil moistureStorms
Temperature
Thermal anomalies in summer
Turbidity
Upwellings
Urban storm water runoff
Urbanization
Water depth
Water infrastructure
Water level fluctuation
Water stratification
Water vapor
Wetland Drainage
Wind stress
Arctic Sea Ice
Bivalves
Coral transitions
Drylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to Savana
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves
Marine Eutrhophication
Marine food webs
Moonson
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt Marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinization
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
WAIS
Arctic Sea IceBivalves
Coral transitionsDrylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to SavanaGreenland
HypoxiaKelps transitions
MangrovesMarine EutrhophicationMarine food webs
MoonsonPeatlands
River channel change
Salt marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinizationSteppe to tundra
ThermohalineTundra to forest
WAIS
Aquatic share more and more or less the same set of drives while terrestrial and sub-
continental are more drivers diverse. Higher driver co-occurrence if regime shifts
share: ecosystem type, ecosystem processes, impacts on ES and scales.
Drivers diversity & impacts are shaped by ecosystem type
• Spill over effects are shared by all RS especially related to climate.
• Marine RS -> fisheries, water purification, disease control and aesthetic values
• Subcontinental -> climate regulation, scale of centuries
• Terrestrial RS -> water cycling, provision of livestock and freshwater, climate regulation, occur in land uses related to crops & livestock and occur on time horizon of decades.
Drivers diversity & impacts are shaped by ecosystem type
• Spill over effects are shared by all RS especially related to climate.
• Marine RS -> fisheries, water purification, disease control and aesthetic values
• Subcontinental -> climate regulation, scale of centuries
• Terrestrial RS -> water cycling, provision of livestock and freshwater, climate regulation, occur in land uses related to crops & livestock and occur on time horizon of decades.
The governance & management challenge
• Managerial actions need to be coordinated across scales.
• 62% of drivers can be managed locally or regionally
• Addressing local & regional drivers can build resilience and delay the effect of global ones; but there is not blue print solutions.
Marine regime shifts: a management perspectiveRocha, et al. 2015. Phil Trans Roy Soc B:20130273.
to assess co-occurrence patterns of the drivers and ecosystem services consequences that
can inform better managerial practices
Agriculture
Atmospheric CO2
Deforestation
Demand
Erosion
Fishing
Floods Global warming
Human population
Nutrients inputs
Sea level riseSea surface temperature
Sewage
TemperatureUpwellings
Urbanization
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophication
Marine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea grassThermohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Agriculture
Atmospheric CO2
Deforestation
Demand
Erosion
Fishing
Floods Global warming
Human population
Nutrients inputs
Sea level riseSea surface temperature
Sewage
TemperatureUpwellings
Urbanization
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophication
Marine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea grassThermohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Food production related drivers, coastal development and climate change are the most important drivers and
they co-occur very strongly.
Soil formation
Primary production
Nutrient cycling
Water cyclingBiodiversity
Freshwater
FoodcropsLivestock
Fisheries
Wild animal and plant foods
Timber
Wood fuel
Feed, fuel & fiber crops
Climate regulation
Water purificationWater regulationRegulation of soil erosion
Pest and disease regulation
Natural hazard regulation
RecreationAesthetic values
Knowledge and educational values
Spiritual and religious
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophicationMarine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea Grass
Termohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Soil formation
Primary production
Nutrient cycling
Water cyclingBiodiversity
Freshwater
FoodcropsLivestock
Fisheries
Wild animal and plant foods
Timber
Wood fuel
Feed, fuel & fiber crops
Climate regulation
Water purificationWater regulationRegulation of soil erosion
Pest and disease regulation
Natural hazard regulation
RecreationAesthetic values
Knowledge and educational values
Spiritual and religious
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Fisheries collapse
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves collapse
Marine eutrophicationMarine foodwebs
Salt marshes
Sea Grass
Termohaline circulation
Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
The most co-occurring ecosystem services are fisheries, biodiversity, nutrient cycling, water purification.
Many regime shifts in coastal ecosystems have impacts on aesthetic values and recreation.
Dem
and
Agric
ultu
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wage
Def
ores
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ion
Glo
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Fish
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Nut
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puts
Hur
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roug
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Infra
stru
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Aqua
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igat
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eep
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Low
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Upw
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FreshwaterFeed, fuel & fiber cropsTimberWood fuelWater regulationFoodcropsLivestockPest and disease regulationKnowledge and educational valuesSpiritual and religiousWater cyclingClimate regulationWild animal and plant foodsSoil formationRegulation of soil erosionNatural hazard regulationAesthetic valuesBiodiversityFisheriesWater purificationNutrient cyclingPrimary productionRecreation
In how many different ways can the drivers impact ecosystem services?
Summary
• PI: Developed a framework for comparing regime shifts.
Summary
• PI: Developed a framework for comparing regime shifts.
• PII: Food production & climate change are the main drivers. High drivers co-occurrence suggest the risk of cascading effects but also present opportunities for management.
Summary
• PI: Developed a framework for comparing regime shifts.
• PII: Food production & climate change are the main drivers. High drivers co-occurrence suggest the risk of cascading effects but also present opportunities for management.
• PIII: Addressing local-regional drivers can built resilience to global ones. Embrace drivers diversity.
Summary
Cascading & domino effects [work in progress]
Forks: when sharing a driver synchronize two regime shifts
Causal chains: the domino effect
Inconvenient feedbacks: when two shifts reinforce or dampen each other
RS1 RS2 RS3
D1
RS1 RS2D1 ...
RS1
RS2
D2D1
Arctic Icesheet collapse
Bivalves collapse
Coral bleaching
Coral transitions
Desertification
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries collapse
Floating plants
Foodwebs
Forest to cropland
Forest to savanna
Greenland icesheet collapse
Hypoxia
Kelp transitions
Monsoon
Peatlands
Soil salinization
Soil structure
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
Arctic salt marsh
River channel change
RS1 RS2 RS3
D1
RS1 RS2D1 ...
RS1
RS2
D2D1
Forks
Domino effects
Inconvenient feedbacksArctic Sea−Ice Loss
Bivalves Collapse
Bush Encroachment
Coral Transitions
Desertification
Dryland degradation
Fisheries collapse
Forest to Cropland
Forest to Savannas
Freshwater Eutrophication
Greenland ice sheet collapse
Hypoxia
Indian Summer Monsoon
Kelp Transitions
Mangroves transitions
Marine eutrophication
Marine food web changes
Marine food webs
Seagrass transitions
Soil Salinization
Sprawling vs Compact City
Submerged to Floating Plants
Thermohaline circulation
Thermokarst lake to terrestrial ecosystem
Tundra to Boreal forest
West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Aquifers depletion
Climate change
Coastal erosion
Deforestation
Disease
Droughts
ENSO like events
Erosion
Estuarine fresh water inputEstuarine salinity
Fertilizers use
Fire frequency
Fishing
Floods
Flushing
Green house gases
Harvesting (animals)
Hunting
Ice melt water
Impoundments
Invasive species
Irrigation
Landscape fragmentation
Logging
Low tides
Nutrient inputs
Ocean acidification
Pollutants
Precipitation
Production intensification
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
River channelization
Roads and railways
Salt water intrusion
Sea level rise
Sea surface temperature
Sea water density
Sediments
Sewage
Soil moistureStorms
Temperature
Thermal anomalies in summer
Turbidity
Upwellings
Urban storm water runoff
Urbanization
Water depth
Water infrastructure
Water level fluctuation
Water stratification
Water vapor
Wetland Drainage
Wind stress
Arctic Sea Ice
Bivalves
Coral transitions
Drylands
Encroachment
Eutrophication
Fisheries
Floating plants
Forest to Savana
Greenland
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Mangroves
Marine Eutrhophication
Marine food webs
Moonson
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt Marshes to tidal flats
Sea Grass
Soil salinization
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline
Tundra to forest
WAIS
Cascading effects of regime shifts
Drivers Natural or human induced changes that have been identified as directly or indirectly producing a regime shift
Causal-loop diagrams is a technique to map out the
feedback structure of a system (Sterman 2000)
Agriculture
Coral abundance
CPUE
DeforestationDemand
Disease outbreak
ErosionFertilizers use
Fishing
Food supply
Global warming
Green house gases
Herbivores
Human population
Hurricanes
Logging
Low tides frequency
Macroalgae abundance
Nutrients input
Ocean acidification
Other competitorsPollutants
SedimentsSewage
Space
SST
Thermal annomalies
Top predators
Turbidity
Unpalatability
Urbanization
Zooxanthellae
A
B C
Agriculture
Fertilizers useDeforestation
Coral abundance
Zooxanthellae
SpaceDisease outbreak
CPUE Food supply
Erosion
DemandFishing
Logging
Herbivores
Sediments
Nutrients input
Top predators
Global warmingSST
Green house gasesOcean acidification
Macroalgae abundance
Human population
Hurricanes
Low tides frequencyUnpalatability
Turbidity
Other competitors
Pollutants
Sewage
Thermal annomaliesUrbanization
D
A worked example. A) shows a CLD for coral transitions as reported on RSDB. B) is a network representation of the same CLD where positive links are blue and negative red. C) identifies communities of drivers and processes based on a community detection algorithm. D) shows a network of 19 regime shifts CLD’s where drivers are identified in orange and other variables in yellow. The giant component of the network suggest a large potential pathways of connections between regime shifts drivers and processes, thus plausible cascading effects.
Desertification Soil Salinisation Desertification - Soil Salinisation
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Desertification - Soil Salinisation
Regime shifts are tightly connected both when sharing drivers and their underlying feedback dynamics. Great potential for cascading effects. Food production and climate change are the main causes of regime shifts globally. The management of immediate causes or well studied variables might not be enough to avoid such catastrophes. Management of regime shifts requires coordinating efforts across multiple scales of action.
Conclusions
Questions?? e-mail: juan.rocha@su.se twitter: @juanrocha
slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ | data: www.regimeshifts.rog
Questions?? e-mail: juan.rocha@su.se twitter: @juanrocha
slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ | data: www.regimeshifts.rog